ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock
IBRX
$7.17
-3.76%
ImmunityBio, Inc. is a biotechnology company developing next-generation immunotherapies to activate the patient's immune system against cancer and infectious diseases, with its lead product ANKTIVA (nogapendekin alfa inbakicept) and a pipeline including vaccines and NK-cell therapies. The company is a niche player in the oncology immunotherapy space, leveraging its proprietary Cancer BioShield platform to differentiate itself. Currently, the stock is in the spotlight due to recent FDA acceptance of an expanded use filing for bladder cancer, EU approval of ANKTIVA, and a strategic partnership in Japan, which have driven significant investor attention and a sharp price rally. However, the company remains unprofitable and faces high volatility, with ongoing debates about its commercial execution and long-term growth potential.…
IBRX
ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock
$7.17
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy IBRX Today?
Rating: Buy. IBRX is a speculative growth stock with strong momentum and analyst support, but the valuation is stretched. The consensus Strong Buy and average target of $12.75 suggest significant upside, but investors must be prepared for high volatility. The thesis hinges on ANKTIVA's commercial success and regulatory expansion. Key supports: 406% revenue growth, 99% gross margin, and a 77.8% upside to analyst targets. However, the risks of cash burn and single-product dependence are severe. This Buy would be downgraded to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 50% YoY or if the FDA rejects the expanded use filing. The stock is overvalued relative to its fundamentals, but the growth potential justifies a speculative buy for risk-tolerant investors.
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IBRX 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses IBRX as bullish given the explosive revenue growth and strong analyst support, but confidence is medium due to the extreme valuation and cash burn. The stock's future hinges on ANKTIVA's commercial success and regulatory approvals. If revenue growth continues at triple-digit rates and the company moves toward profitability, the stock could re-rate higher. However, any negative news could trigger a sharp sell-off given the high short interest. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company achieves positive EBITDA or if the FDA approval expands the market significantly.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on ImmunityBio, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $12.75 and implied upside of +77.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$12.75
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+77.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$12 - $15
Analyst target range
ImmunityBio has coverage from 4 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' (mean rating of 1.25). The average target price is $12.75, implying an upside of 77.8% from the current price of $7.17. The target range is $12.00 to $15.00, with the low target still representing a 67.4% upside, indicating that all analysts see significant upside potential. The high target of $15.00 suggests expectations of continued regulatory approvals and commercial success, while the low target may reflect risks such as competition or slower adoption. Recent ratings from firms like D. Boral Capital and HC Wainwright have been consistently positive, with no downgrades, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.
Bulls vs Bears: IBRX Investment Factors
ImmunityBio presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The bull case is anchored by explosive revenue growth, strong analyst support, and regulatory wins, while the bear case highlights extreme valuation, persistent losses, and heavy cash burn. Currently, the bull evidence is stronger given the revenue trajectory and clear catalysts, but the stock's premium valuation and dependence on ANKTIVA create significant downside risk. The central tension is whether ANKTIVA's commercial success can justify the current valuation, as any slowdown in adoption or regulatory setback could trigger a sharp re-rating.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q4 2025 revenue surged 406.95% YoY to $38.3M, with sequential growth from $16.5M in Q1 to $38.3M in Q4, demonstrating rapid commercial adoption of ANKTIVA.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: All 4 analysts rate IBRX a Strong Buy with an average target of $12.75, implying 77.8% upside from the current $7.17, and the low target of $12.00 still offers 67.4% upside.
- Regulatory Momentum: FDA accepted expanded use filing for bladder cancer, EU approved ANKTIVA, and a Japanese BCG partnership expands market reach, driving recent stock rallies.
- High Gross Margin: Gross margin is 99.3% (trailing) and 88.9% in Q4, indicating a highly scalable product with minimal cost of goods, supporting future profitability as revenue grows.
Bearish
- Extreme Valuation Premium: PS ratio is 16.08x trailing and EV/Sales is 60.63x, far above typical biotech levels, implying the market prices in flawless execution and massive future revenue.
- Persistent Losses and Cash Burn: Net income was -$61.9M in Q4, and free cash flow TTM is -$308M, indicating heavy cash burn that may require dilution or debt, pressuring shareholder value.
- High Short Interest: Short ratio is 10.23 days to cover, reflecting significant bearish sentiment and potential for sharp declines if sentiment turns or fundamentals disappoint.
- Dependence on Single Product: Revenue is almost entirely from ANKTIVA, making the company vulnerable to regulatory setbacks, competition, or commercial execution issues in one product.
IBRX Technical Analysis
The stock is in a strong uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +191.46%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.19% over the same period. The current price of $7.17 sits at 49.5% of the 52-week range (low $1.95, high $12.43), indicating that while the stock has rallied sharply, it is still well below its highs, suggesting potential for further upside but also vulnerability to profit-taking. The 52-week low of $1.95 was set in the past year, and the stock has more than tripled from that level, reflecting a strong recovery trend.
Beta
0.08
0.08x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.3%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$2-$12
Price range past year
Annual Return
+191.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | IBRX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -22.1% | +0.3% |
| 3m | +0.8% | +4.0% |
| 6m | +14.7% | +8.3% |
| 1y | +191.5% | +20.2% |
| ytd | +255.0% | +9.6% |
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IBRX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been growing rapidly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $38.3 million, up 406.95% year-over-year from $7.55 million in Q4 2024. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth: Q1 2025 revenue was $16.5 million, Q2 $26.4 million, Q3 $32.1 million, and Q4 $38.3 million, indicating a consistent sequential increase. This growth is driven by product sales of ANKTIVA, which contributed $38.3 million in Q4, with minimal revenue from other sources. The revenue trajectory is robust, but the company is still in early commercialization, and the sustainability of this growth depends on market adoption and regulatory approvals.
Quarterly Revenue
$38285000.0B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
+406.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
88.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-308007000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is IBRX Overvalued?
Given that ImmunityBio has negative net income (net income of -$61.9 million in Q4 2025), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 16.08x, while the forward PS ratio is not directly provided, but the EV/Sales ratio is 60.63x, indicating a significant premium. The gap between trailing and forward metrics suggests the market expects substantial revenue growth, but the current valuation is extremely high for a company with only $38.3 million in quarterly revenue. Compared to the industry average PS ratio (not provided), the stock trades at a premium, reflecting optimism about its growth potential but also high risk.
PE
-5.2x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-11.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are substantial. The company is unprofitable with a net margin of -310% in Q4, and free cash flow is deeply negative at -$308M TTM. Debt-to-equity is -1.76, indicating negative equity, and interest expense of $27.2M in Q4 adds pressure. The company relies on external financing, and any disruption in capital markets could threaten operations. Revenue concentration in ANKTIVA is a major risk, as a single product failure would eliminate nearly all revenue. Additionally, the high PS ratio of 16x means the stock is priced for perfection, leaving little room for error.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk: The company has negative equity and burns cash at a rate of $308M TTM, requiring frequent financing. 2) Product risk: Revenue is solely dependent on ANKTIVA, so any regulatory or commercial failure would be catastrophic. 3) Valuation risk: The stock trades at a huge premium, leaving little room for error. 4) Market risk: High short interest and volatility could lead to sharp declines. The most severe risk is a regulatory setback, which could send the stock down 70% or more.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $8-12 (50% probability), bull case of $12-15 (30% probability), and bear case of $1.95-5 (20% probability). The most likely scenario is continued revenue growth and regulatory progress, driving the stock toward the analyst average of $12.75. However, the bear case of a regulatory failure could lead to a -73% decline. Investors should monitor FDA decisions and quarterly earnings to gauge which scenario is unfolding.
IBRX is overvalued based on traditional metrics, with a trailing PS ratio of 16x and EV/Sales of 60x, far above the biotech industry average. However, the market is pricing in massive future growth, as evidenced by analyst revenue estimates up to $3.58B. The valuation implies that ANKTIVA will become a blockbuster drug. If that happens, the stock could be undervalued, but if not, it is significantly overvalued. The PEG ratio of 0.15 suggests undervaluation based on growth, but this is misleading given the negative earnings.
IBRX is a high-risk, high-reward stock. With a Strong Buy consensus and 77.8% upside to the average target, it offers significant potential, but the valuation is extreme with a PS ratio of 16x. The biggest risk is the company's dependence on ANKTIVA and its heavy cash burn. It could be a good buy for aggressive investors who believe in the product's potential and can tolerate volatility, but it is not suitable for conservative investors. The stock is a speculative buy, not a core holding.
IBRX is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) given its early commercialization stage and high volatility. The stock's beta is low (0.077), but its actual price swings are large, as seen in the 22% monthly decline. Short-term trading is risky due to high short interest and news-driven moves. Long-term investors should be prepared for significant drawdowns but have the potential for substantial gains if ANKTIVA succeeds. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to allow the product to mature and the company to approach profitability.