Manhattan Associates
MANH
$213.77
-3.86%
Manhattan Associates Inc. is a leading provider of supply chain management and omnichannel commerce software, serving retailers, wholesalers, manufacturers, and logistics providers with solutions for inventory management, order management, and warehouse operations. The company has established itself as a dominant player in the supply chain execution software niche, with over 1,200 customers worldwide and a reputation for innovation in cloud-based platforms. Currently, the stock is attracting significant investor attention due to a sharp acceleration in its share price, driven by strong demand for its cloud solutions and robust financial performance, while the broader market debates the sustainability of its premium valuation and growth trajectory.…
MANH
Manhattan Associates
$213.77
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MANH Today?
Rating: Hold. The stock is a high-quality growth company with strong fundamentals, but the current price offers limited upside relative to analyst targets. The consensus Buy rating and average target of $213.90 imply a -4.2% downside, suggesting the stock is fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels.
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MANH 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is neutral with medium confidence. The company has strong fundamentals and a leading position in supply chain software, but the stock's valuation is stretched, and growth is moderating. The key factor is whether the company can re-accelerate growth to justify its premium multiple. If revenue growth picks up above 10%, the stance would upgrade to bullish; if it falls below 5%, it would downgrade to bearish.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Manhattan Associates's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $213.90 and implied upside of +0.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$213.90
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+0.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$180 - $260
Analyst target range
With 10 analysts covering the stock, the consensus recommendation is a Buy, with a mean rating of 1.55 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average price target is $213.90, implying a downside of -4.2% from the current price of $223.28, indicating that the stock has surpassed analyst expectations. The target range spans from $180.00 to $260.00, with the low target suggesting a potential 19% downside if growth disappoints, while the high target implies a 16% upside if the company continues to execute on its cloud strategy. Recent institutional actions have been uniformly positive, with firms like Barclays, DA Davidson, and Citigroup maintaining Buy or Overweight ratings, reflecting confidence in the company's long-term prospects despite the elevated valuation.
Bulls vs Bears: MANH Investment Factors
Manhattan Associates presents a classic growth-at-a-premium-price dilemma. The bull case is anchored by strong cloud adoption, exceptional profitability (net margin 20.3%, ROE 69.9%), and positive analyst sentiment, while the bear case highlights a rich valuation (PE 47.6x vs. industry 30x) and moderating growth (7.4% YoY). Currently, the bull side has stronger evidence given the company's dominant market position and consistent execution, but the stock's 4.2% premium to the average target suggests limited near-term upside. The key tension is whether the company can re-accelerate growth to justify its premium multiple, or if the market will re-rate the stock downward if growth stalls.
Bullish
- Strong Cloud Revenue Growth: Cloud subscriptions revenue reached $117.1 million in Q1 2026, a key driver of the 7.4% YoY revenue growth. The transition to cloud-based solutions is expanding the recurring revenue base, improving visibility and long-term growth prospects.
- High Profitability and ROE: Net margin stands at 20.3% and ROE at 69.9%, reflecting exceptional operational efficiency and capital allocation. These metrics are far above industry averages, supporting the premium valuation.
- Positive Analyst Sentiment: Consensus rating is Buy with a mean score of 1.55, and recent actions from Barclays, DA Davidson, and Citigroup are uniformly positive. The high target of $260 implies 16% upside, indicating analysts see further gains.
- Momentum and Relative Strength: The stock has surged 64.9% over the past 6 months and 48.8% over 3 months, with relative strength vs. S&P 500 at +52.7% over 6 months. This momentum reflects strong market conviction in the company's growth story.
Bearish
- Premium Valuation vs. Peers: Trailing PE of 47.6x is 59% above the software industry average of ~30x. Even with superior profitability, the stock is priced for perfection, leaving little room for error.
- Stock Above Average Target: Current price of $223.28 is 4.2% above the average analyst target of $213.90. This suggests the stock has already priced in much of the expected growth, limiting near-term upside.
- Moderating Revenue Growth: Revenue growth has slowed to 7.4% YoY in Q1 2026, down from double-digit rates in prior years. The cloud transition is maturing, and sustaining high growth may become more challenging.
- High PEG Ratio Signals Overvaluation: PEG ratio of 21.2x is extremely elevated, indicating that the market is paying a steep price for each unit of expected earnings growth. This leaves the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints.
MANH Technical Analysis
The stock is in a powerful uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +2.2% masking a dramatic recovery from a 52-week low of $119.06 to a current price of $223.28, which is near the 52-week high of $227.03. Trading at approximately 98% of its 52-week range, the stock is exhibiting strong momentum and is positioned near its highs, suggesting bullish sentiment but also potential overextension. The 6-month price change of +64.9% and 3-month change of +48.8% underscore a sustained rally that has outpaced the S&P 500's 1.7% gain over the same period.
Beta
0.95
0.95x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-45.1%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$119-$227
Price range past year
Annual Return
+1.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MANH Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +11.3% | +0.1% |
| 3m | +44.8% | +4.4% |
| 6m | +40.2% | +14.6% |
| 1y | +1.9% | +18.6% |
| ytd | +27.8% | +12.9% |
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MANH Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth remains solid, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $282.2 million, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, and a sequential acceleration from the prior quarter's $270.4 million. The company's cloud subscriptions segment is a key driver, contributing $117.1 million in revenue, while services and other revenue added $125.7 million, indicating a diversified revenue base. However, growth has moderated from earlier double-digit rates, with the trailing twelve-month revenue growth around 7-8%, reflecting a maturing cloud transition.
Quarterly Revenue
$282215000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+7.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
55.1%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$379586000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MANH Overvalued?
Given the company's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric, with a trailing PE of 47.6x and a forward PE of 36.4x, indicating the market expects earnings growth of about 30% over the next year. The stock trades at a significant premium to the software industry average PE of approximately 30x, representing a 59% premium, which is justified by its superior profitability (net margin of 20.3%) and strong ROE of 69.9%. Historically, the trailing PE has ranged from 40x to 118x over the past five years, and the current multiple is near the lower end of that range, suggesting the stock is relatively cheaper than its own historical norms, though still expensive in absolute terms.
PE
47.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 40x~86x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
35.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high valuation that leaves little margin of safety; the trailing PE of 47.6x is well above the industry average, and the PEG ratio of 21.2x suggests the market is pricing in aggressive growth. While the company has low debt (debt-to-equity 0.36) and strong free cash flow ($379.6M TTM), any slowdown in revenue growth (currently 7.4% YoY) could trigger a sharp de-rating. Additionally, the company's high ROE (69.9%) is partly driven by share buybacks, which may not be sustainable if growth falters.