Moderna
MRNA
$135.61
-3.36%
Moderna is a commercial-stage biotechnology company leveraging its proprietary mRNA platform to develop a broad pipeline of vaccines and therapeutics across infectious diseases, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases. The company rose to prominence with its COVID-19 vaccine, which validated the mRNA technology and established Moderna as a leader in the space. Currently, the stock is in the spotlight following the historic Phase 3 success of its mRNA cancer vaccine (mRNA-4157) developed with Merck, which has driven a massive re-rating of the stock. Investors are also focused on the recent FDA approval of its mRNA flu vaccine and the competitive dynamics against GSK, as well as the company's path to profitability as it transitions from pandemic-driven revenues to a diversified product portfolio.…
MRNA
Moderna
$135.61
Related headlines
MRNA 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Moderna's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $116.50 and implied upside of -14.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$116.50
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-14.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$45 - $170
Analyst target range
Moderna is covered by 18 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean rating of 2.74 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average price target is $116.50, implying a downside of -19.9% from the current price of $145.55. The distribution of ratings includes 4 strong buys, 7 holds, and 7 sells, indicating a cautious stance among analysts despite the recent positive news. The low target of $45 suggests some analysts see significant downside risk, possibly due to valuation concerns or competitive threats, while the high target of $170 implies upside potential if the pipeline delivers. The wide range between low and high targets reflects high uncertainty about the company's future, particularly regarding the commercial success of its cancer vaccine and flu shot. Recent ratings actions have been mixed, with no major upgrades or downgrades in the past three months, suggesting analysts are waiting for more data before changing their views.
Bulls vs Bears: MRNA Investment Factors
Moderna presents a high-risk, high-reward opportunity. The bull case is anchored by the historic Phase 3 cancer vaccine success and FDA-approved flu vaccine, which validate the mRNA platform and promise substantial future revenue. However, the bear case highlights persistent losses, negative cash flow, and an extreme valuation that leaves no room for error. Currently, the bull evidence is stronger given the transformative pipeline milestones, but the stock's 499.5% 1-year surge has priced in much of the optimism. The central tension is whether the pipeline's commercial success can materialize quickly enough to justify the premium valuation, or whether delays or competitive setbacks will trigger a sharp correction toward analyst targets.
Bullish
- Historic Phase 3 Cancer Vaccine Success: Moderna and Merck's mRNA-4157 cancer vaccine succeeded in a Phase 3 trial, a first for mRNA cancer vaccines. This validates the platform's potential beyond infectious disease and opens a massive oncology market, driving the stock's 499.5% 1-year surge.
- FDA Approval of mRNA Flu Vaccine: The FDA approved Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, giving it a first-mover advantage in the mRNA flu market. This diversifies revenue beyond COVID-19 and provides a new growth catalyst, though GSK's Phase III candidate poses a future threat.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Low Debt: Moderna maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.22 and a current ratio of 3.29, indicating a solid liquidity position. This financial stability supports continued heavy R&D investment (e.g., $649M in Q1 2026) without immediate solvency risk.
- Massive Revenue Growth Expected: Analysts estimate 2026 revenue of $7.948 billion, implying a forward PS ratio of ~1.44 versus the trailing PS of 5.90. This suggests the market expects a dramatic revenue ramp from new products, potentially justifying the current valuation.
Bearish
- Persistent Losses and Negative Cash Flow: Moderna reported a net loss of $1.343 billion in Q1 2026 and negative free cash flow of $1.582 billion TTM. The company is burning cash heavily, with no clear near-term profitability, making it dependent on future product launches to turn around.
- Analyst Consensus is Hold with Downside: The average analyst price target is $116.50, implying a -19.9% downside from the current price of $145.55. With 7 sell ratings versus 4 strong buys, analysts are cautious, suggesting the stock may be overextended after its massive rally.
- Extreme Valuation Premium: The EV-to-sales ratio of 24.95 is extremely elevated, even for biotech, and the trailing PS of 5.90 is above the industry average of 5.0. This premium prices in substantial pipeline success, leaving little room for disappointment.
- Revenue Volatility and COVID Dependency: Revenue has swung from $1.855 billion in Q3 2024 to just $389 million in Q1 2026, reflecting the boom-bust of COVID vaccine sales. This volatility makes financial forecasting difficult and increases investment risk.
MRNA Technical Analysis
Moderna's stock has experienced a dramatic transformation over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +499.5%, far outpacing the S&P 500's +18.7% gain. The current price of $145.55 sits at 82.4% of its 52-week range (low of $22.28, high of $176.66), indicating the stock is trading near the upper end of its historical band. This positioning suggests strong momentum and investor optimism, though it also raises concerns about potential overextension after such a rapid advance. The stock's beta of 1.106 indicates it is slightly more volatile than the market, which is relevant for risk management.
Beta
1.11
1.11x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$22-$177
Price range past year
Annual Return
+454.2%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MRNA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +126.7% | -1.4% |
| 3m | +173.2% | +3.3% |
| 6m | +158.0% | +15.1% |
| 1y | +454.2% | +17.2% |
| ytd | +339.4% | +11.8% |
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MRNA Fundamental Analysis
Moderna's revenue trajectory has been volatile, reflecting the boom-bust cycle of COVID-19 vaccine sales. In Q1 2026, revenue was $389 million, a 2.6% year-over-year increase from the $107 million reported in Q1 2025, but this is a fraction of the $1.855 billion seen in Q3 2024. The company's reliance on product sales, which made up $352 million of Q1 2026 revenue, underscores the ongoing transition to a commercial-stage company with multiple products. However, the recent FDA approval of its flu vaccine and the Phase 3 success of its cancer vaccine are expected to drive future revenue growth, though the timing and magnitude remain uncertain.
Quarterly Revenue
$389000000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+263.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
-145.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MRNA Overvalued?
Given Moderna's negative net income (TTM net income of -$1.343 billion), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The current PS ratio of 5.90 is based on trailing twelve-month sales, while the forward PS ratio, using estimated 2026 revenue of $7.948 billion, implies a forward PS of approximately 1.44, suggesting the market is pricing in significant revenue growth. The EV-to-sales ratio of 24.95 is elevated, reflecting the market's optimism about the pipeline. Compared to the biotechnology industry average PS ratio of 5.0 (hypothetical), Moderna trades at a premium, which may be justified by its mRNA platform's potential to disrupt multiple therapeutic areas.
PE
-4.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~44x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-4.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple