Moderna
MRNA
$196.48
+4.81%
Moderna, Inc. is a commercial-stage biotechnology company that develops messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines, with a portfolio spanning infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases; as of March 2026 it had 25 mRNA development candidates in clinical studies. The company is a pioneer and platform player in mRNA medicine, having rapidly validated its technology with its COVID-19 vaccine authorized in the U.S. in December 2020, and it remains one of the most closely watched names in biotech given its pipeline breadth. The current investor narrative has shifted decisively from a post-COVID revenue-collapse story to a cancer-vaccine breakthrough story: in August 2026, Moderna and Merck reported the first successful Phase 3 trial of an mRNA cancer vaccine (melanoma), which triggered a massive re-rating of the stock, alongside FDA approval of its mRNA flu vaccine. Debate now centers on whether the stock's extraordinary 2026 rally has already priced in a perfect cancer-vaccine launch, with analyst targets sitting far below the current price and sell-side ratings skewing cautious even as the fundamental platform validation strengthens.…
MRNA
Moderna
$196.48
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy MRNA Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold, with a clear thesis that the cancer vaccine breakthrough is real but the current valuation already prices in a perfect launch, leaving an unfavorable risk/reward for new investors. The analyst consensus rating is "hold" with a recommendation mean of 2.83, and the average price target of $120.67 implies 36.5% downside from the current price of $190.01. This disconnect suggests that while the fundamental platform validation strengthens, the stock has run far ahead of what analysts believe is fair value.
Supporting evidence for the Hold rating includes: (1) the primary valuation metric, EV/Sales, is 32.13x, which is exceptionally high for a company with negative operating margins of -158.1% and declining revenue; (2) revenue growth is essentially stagnant at 2.11% year-over-year in Q2 2026, with revenue of just $145 million; (3) profitability remains deeply negative, with a net margin of -539.3% and free cash flow of -$1.223 billion on a trailing-twelve-month basis; (4) the implied upside to the analyst average target is negative 36.5%, and even the highest target of $170 is below the current price. The low debt-to-equity of 0.2215 and current ratio of 3.29 provide some financial stability, but the cash burn is a concern.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) a delay or disappointment in the cancer vaccine launch, which could trigger a sharp re-rating toward the analyst average target of $120.67; (2) continued cash burn leading to dilutive financing, with cash already declining from $2.595 billion to $1.724 billion; (3) competitive threats from GSK and others in the mRNA flu and cancer vaccine markets. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock pulls back to the analyst average target of $120.67 or if the company demonstrates a clear path to profitability with positive free cash flow. It would downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns negative or if cash reserves fall below $1 billion without a financing plan. The valuation verdict is that the stock is overvalued relative to its history and peers, trading at a significant premium to analyst targets.
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MRNA 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward-looking view is neutral with medium confidence, as the cancer vaccine breakthrough is a genuine long-term opportunity but the current valuation already prices in a perfect launch. The stock trades at $190.01, 36.5% above the consensus analyst target of $120.67, and not a single analyst's published target supports the current price. While the Phase 3 success validates the mRNA platform and the flu vaccine approval provides a near-term product, the company remains deeply unprofitable with stagnant revenue growth and significant cash burn. The risk/reward is skewed to the downside in the near term, but the long-term potential is substantial if the cancer vaccine commercializes successfully. I would upgrade to bullish if the stock pulls back to the $120-$140 range or if the company demonstrates a clear path to profitability with positive free cash flow. I would downgrade to bearish if revenue growth turns negative or if cash reserves fall below $1 billion without a financing plan.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Moderna's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $121.00 and implied upside of -38.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$121.00
0 analysts
Implied Upside
-38.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$45 - $170
Analyst target range
There are 18 analysts covering Moderna, and the consensus recommendation is "hold" with a recommendation mean of 2.83 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is strong sell), indicating a neutral-to-cautious stance. The average price target is $120.67, which implies a downside of approximately -36.5% from the current price of $190.01, a striking disconnect given the stock's massive rally. This means the consensus view is that the stock is significantly overvalued at current levels, with the market having run far ahead of where analysts believe fair value lies. The consensus leans bearish relative to the price action, with the "hold" rating and a target well below the market price suggesting analysts see the cancer-vaccine catalyst as fully priced in or overdone. The target range is extremely wide, from a low of $45.00 to a high of $170.00, a spread of $125 (or 278% of the low), which signals very high uncertainty and low conviction among analysts. Notably, even the highest target of $170 is below the current price of $190.01, meaning not a single analyst's published target supports the current valuation, a rare and powerful signal that the stock is trading on momentum and narrative rather than fundamental consensus. The high target of $170 would imply roughly -10.5% downside from current levels and likely assumes successful cancer-vaccine commercialization with substantial revenue contribution, while the low target of $45 implies -76.3% downside and prices in continued losses, margin compression, and failure to monetize the pipeline. Recent institutional ratings show a mixed but slightly improving tone: Argus Research upgraded to Buy from Hold on August 28, 2026, and William Blair upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform on August 19, 2026, but Rothschild & Co downgraded to Sell from Neutral on September 3, 2026, and JP Morgan maintained Underweight. The wide dispersion and the fact that the average target sits 36.5% below the market price indicate that analysts are struggling to justify the rally, and the stock's price discovery is being driven by retail and momentum flows rather than institutional consensus.
Bulls vs Bears: MRNA Investment Factors
The bear case currently has stronger evidence, primarily because the stock trades 36.5% above the consensus analyst target and not a single analyst's published target supports the current price. While the cancer vaccine Phase 3 success is a genuine breakthrough, the company's current fundamentals remain weak: revenue grew only 2.11% year-over-year in Q2 2026, net margin is -539.3%, and free cash flow is -$1.223 billion. The bull case rests on future pipeline commercialization, but the market has already priced in a perfect launch, as evidenced by the EV/Sales of 32.13x. The single most important tension is whether the cancer vaccine can generate multi-billion-dollar revenue quickly enough to justify the current enterprise value before cash reserves are depleted; if it cannot, the stock could retrace sharply toward analyst targets.
Bullish
- Historic Phase 3 cancer vaccine success: Moderna and Merck reported the first successful Phase 3 trial of an mRNA cancer vaccine (melanoma) in August 2026, a landmark validation of the mRNA platform beyond COVID-19. This event triggered a single-session gap from ~$63 to $174 on August 19, 2026, and the stock has since climbed to $190.01, reflecting the market's view that this opens a multi-billion-dollar oncology opportunity.
- mRNA flu vaccine FDA approval: Moderna received FDA approval for its mRNA flu vaccine, giving it a first-mover advantage in a large seasonal market. This provides a near-term commercial product that can partially offset declining COVID vaccine revenue, which fell to $145 million in Q2 2026.
- Fortress balance sheet with low leverage: Debt-to-equity is only 0.2215 and the current ratio is a healthy 3.29, with $1.724 billion in cash as of Q2 2026. This provides a multi-year runway to fund R&D ($651 million in Q2 2026) without immediate financing risk, even as free cash flow is negative $1.223 billion on a trailing-twelve-month basis.
- Broad pipeline with 25 clinical candidates: As of March 2026, Moderna had 25 mRNA development candidates in clinical studies spanning infectious disease, oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare genetic diseases. This breadth reduces dependence on any single program and offers multiple shots on goal for future catalysts.
Bearish
- Analyst targets imply 36.5% downside: The consensus average price target is $120.67, which is 36.5% below the current price of $190.01. Notably, even the highest analyst target of $170 is below the current price, meaning not a single analyst's published target supports the current valuation.
- Revenue stagnation and deep losses: Q2 2026 revenue was just $145 million, up only 2.11% year-over-year, while net loss was $782 million, a net margin of -539.3%. Gross margin was only 35.86% in Q2 2026, and Q1 2026 had a negative gross margin of -145.5%, highlighting severe operational challenges.
- Extreme valuation on EV/Sales: The EV/Sales ratio is 32.13x, which is exceptionally high for a company with negative operating margins of -158.1% and declining revenue. The forward PE is -42.69, implying the market does not expect profitability in the forward period either.
- Massive cash burn and negative free cash flow: Free cash flow is -$1.223 billion on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with Q2 2026 free cash flow of -$563 million and Q1 2026 at -$692 million. Cash declined from $2.595 billion at the end of 2025 to $1.724 billion at the end of Q2 2026, a burn rate that could require external financing if pipeline commercialization does not accelerate.
MRNA Technical Analysis
Moderna is in a violent, parabolic uptrend that has completely reversed a multi-year decline. The stock is up 569.76% over the past year and 515.72% year-to-date, with the current price of $190.01 sitting at approximately 89.8% of its 52-week range (low $22.28, high $208.90). This positioning near the top of the range signals powerful momentum but also meaningful overextension risk, as the stock has more than tripled from its 52-week low and is trading just ~9% below its high. The 1-year change of 569.76% versus the S&P 500's 15.01% represents relative strength of 554.75 percentage points, an extraordinary divergence that underscores how idiosyncratic and catalyst-driven this move has been. Short-term momentum is accelerating but at a decelerating rate: the 1-month change is +25.99% and the 3-month change is +138.23%, meaning the bulk of the move occurred in the last quarter, with the 6-month change at +286.20%. The 1-month gain of 25.99% versus the S&P 500's +0.59% (relative strength 25.40) shows the stock is still massively outperforming even as the broader market stalls, but the fact that the 1-month gain is smaller than the 3-month gain implies the rate of ascent is cooling. The stock's beta of 1.106 indicates it is only about 10.6% more volatile than the market on a historical basis, though this understates the current realized volatility given the August 19 gap from ~$63 to $174 in a single session. Key technical levels are the 52-week high of $208.90 as immediate resistance and the 52-week low of $22.28 as distant, largely irrelevant support; more relevant near-term support likely sits around the $140-$150 zone where the stock consolidated in late August and early September. A breakout above $208.90 would signal the market is pricing in further pipeline catalysts, while a breakdown below $140 would suggest the cancer-vaccine pop is being retraced and could open a move toward the $100 area. With a max drawdown of -34.16% recorded, the stock has already demonstrated it can shed a third of its value even within an uptrend, which matters greatly for position sizing.
Beta
1.09
1.09x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-34.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$22-$212
Price range past year
Annual Return
+618.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | MRNA Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +35.0% | +0.9% |
| 3m | +156.6% | +3.4% |
| 6m | +285.6% | +14.4% |
| 1y | +618.7% | +16.2% |
| ytd | +536.7% | +14.0% |
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MRNA Fundamental Analysis
Moderna's revenue trajectory remains deeply challenged despite the stock's rally, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026, ended June 30) showing revenue of just $145 million, up only 2.11% year-over-year from $142 million in Q2 2025. The multi-quarter trend is erratic and weak: Q1 2026 revenue was $389 million, Q4 2025 was $678 million, Q3 2025 was $1,016 million, and Q2 2025 was $142 million, reflecting the highly seasonal and declining COVID-vaccine business with no consistent growth. Product sales of $171 million in the most recent period remain a fraction of the company's pandemic-era peak, and the 2.11% YoY growth is essentially stagnation, meaning the entire investment case rests on future pipeline products (cancer vaccine, flu vaccine) rather than current commercial performance. The company is deeply unprofitable: Q2 2026 net income was -$782 million on $145 million of revenue, a net margin of -539.3%, and gross margin was only 35.86% (gross profit of $52 million) versus the 55.35% gross margin shown in the valuation data, indicating significant quarter-to-quarter volatility in cost of revenue. The Q1 2026 quarter was even worse with a negative gross margin of -145.5% (gross profit of -$566 million on $389 million revenue) due to a $955 million cost of revenue, and operating margin stands at -158.1% per the valuation data, with EBITDA of -$704 million in Q2 2026. R&D spending remains enormous at $651 million in Q2 2026 and $649 million in Q1 2026, far exceeding revenue, which explains the persistent losses and shows the company is still in heavy investment mode with no near-term path to profitability. The balance sheet is the one clear strength: debt-to-equity is a low 0.2215, the current ratio is a healthy 3.29, and cash at the end of Q2 2026 was $1.724 billion, though this declined from $2.595 billion at the end of 2025. However, free cash flow is deeply negative at -$1.223 billion on a trailing-twelve-month basis, with Q2 2026 free cash flow of -$563 million and Q1 2026 at -$692 million, and ROE is -32.62% with ROA of -13.26%. The company is burning cash rapidly and, while its low leverage and $1.7 billion cash balance provide a buffer, the trajectory of continued large negative free cash flow means it may eventually need external financing if pipeline commercialization does not accelerate.
Quarterly Revenue
$145000000.0B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+2.1%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
35.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-1.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is MRNA Overvalued?
Because Moderna's net income is negative (trailing EPS of -$0.246 and Q2 2026 net loss of $782 million), the PE ratio is not meaningful and I am leading with the price-to-sales (PS) ratio as the primary metric. The trailing PS ratio is 5.90x, while the EV/Sales ratio is a much richer 32.13x, and the forward PE is -42.69 (still negative, implying the market does not expect profitability in the forward period either). The gap between the trailing PS of 5.90x and the EV/Sales of 32.13x is largely explained by the fact that the PS uses a trailing revenue base that includes the larger 2025 quarters, while EV/Sales reflects the much smaller current run-rate revenue against an enterprise value that has ballooned with the stock price. The forward PE of -42.69 versus the trailing PE of -4.06 implies the market expects losses to narrow substantially, consistent with analyst estimated EPS averaging $3.42 (range $2.60 to $5.08), which would represent a dramatic swing to profitability. Relative to the biotechnology sector, Moderna's PS of 5.90x is difficult to benchmark precisely without a stated industry average, but the EV/Sales of 32.13x is exceptionally high for a company with negative 145% net margins and declining revenue, suggesting the stock is priced for pipeline success rather than current fundamentals. The price-to-book ratio of 1.33x is relatively modest and below the 4.10x seen in Q2 2026 historical data, though this reflects the sharp rise in book value from the stock's prior decline rather than a value signal. On a PEG basis the ratio is 0.187, which would look attractive if the earnings growth materializes, but this is a forward-looking metric contingent on the estimated EPS swing that has not yet been demonstrated. Historically, Moderna's PS ratio has ranged from over 200x in loss-heavy quarters (Q2 2024 at 201x, Q1 2025 at 102x) down to 9.9x in Q3 2025 and 17.1x in Q4 2025, so the current 5.90x trailing PS is actually near the low end of its own historical band, but this is because the trailing revenue base includes the stronger 2025 quarters. The stock is not cheap on any cash-flow-based measure: price-to-free-cash-flow is -49.26x and price-to-operating-cash-flow is -52.72x, both negative and therefore uninformative. The valuation ultimately hinges on whether the cancer vaccine and flu vaccine can generate the multi-billion-dollar revenue that would justify the current enterprise value, and at 32x EV/Sales the market is pricing in enormous future success.
PE
-4.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 5x~44x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-4.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Moderna faces significant financial and operational risks. The company is deeply unprofitable, with a Q2 2026 net loss of $782 million on revenue of $145 million, a net margin of -539.3%. Gross margin was only 35.86% in Q2 2026, and Q1 2026 had a negative gross margin of -145.5% due to a $955 million cost of revenue. R&D spending remains enormous at $651 million in Q2 2026, far exceeding revenue, and free cash flow is -$1.223 billion on a trailing-twelve-month basis. The balance sheet is a relative strength with debt-to-equity of 0.2215 and $1.724 billion in cash, but the cash balance declined from $2.595 billion at the end of 2025, and continued large negative free cash flow could force external financing if pipeline commercialization does not accelerate. Revenue concentration in COVID vaccines remains a risk, as the seasonal and declining COVID business provides erratic and weak revenue, with Q2 2026 revenue up only 2.11% year-over-year.
Market and competitive risks are elevated. The stock trades at an EV/Sales of 32.13x, which is exceptionally high for a company with negative operating margins of -158.1% and declining revenue, leaving it vulnerable to valuation compression if pipeline catalysts disappoint. The beta of 1.106 indicates moderate market correlation, but the August 19 gap from ~$63 to $174 in a single session shows extreme idiosyncratic volatility that can cut both ways. Competitive threats are emerging: GSK's Phase 3 candidate could challenge Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, and other biotech firms are advancing cancer vaccines. Regulatory headwinds are also possible, as the FDA may require additional data or impose label restrictions. Recent news highlights the risk that the stock has priced in a perfect cancer vaccine launch, with analyst targets far below the current price, and geopolitical tensions and higher yields are pressuring growth stocks.
In a worst-case scenario, the cancer vaccine launch could be delayed or commercial uptake could be slower than expected, leading to a sharp re-rating. The stock could retrace to its 52-week low of $22.28, representing a -88.3% decline from the current price of $190.01. More realistically, a breakdown below the $140 support zone could open a move toward the $100 area, and the analyst low target of $45 implies -76.3% downside. The max drawdown of -34.16% recorded historically shows that even within an uptrend, the stock can shed a third of its value. If the company needs to raise capital at unfavorable terms due to cash burn, the downside could be exacerbated, potentially pushing the stock toward the low end of the analyst range.
FAQ
The key risks of holding MRNA are ranked by severity: (1) Financial risk: the company is burning cash rapidly, with free cash flow of -$1.223 billion TTM and cash declining from $2.595 billion to $1.724 billion, which could force dilutive financing. (2) Valuation risk: the stock trades at 32.13x EV/Sales, and the analyst average target of $120.67 implies 36.5% downside, leaving it vulnerable to a sharp correction if pipeline catalysts disappoint. (3) Competitive risk: GSK's Phase 3 flu vaccine candidate could challenge Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine, and other biotech firms are advancing cancer vaccines. (4) Company-specific risk: the cancer vaccine launch could be delayed or commercial uptake could be slower than expected, and revenue growth is already stagnant at 2.11% year-over-year. These risks are significant and could lead to substantial losses for investors.
The 12-month forecast for MRNA is divided into three scenarios: bull case (20% probability) with a target range of $170-$250, base case (50% probability) with a target range of $100-$150, and bear case (30% probability) with a target range of $45-$100. The base case is most likely, assuming the cancer vaccine progresses through regulatory review but commercial launch is gradual, with revenue contribution starting in late 2027. The key assumption behind the base case is that the cancer vaccine is approved by mid-2027 with peak sales estimates of $2-3 billion, and the mRNA flu vaccine captures 10-15% of the U.S. flu vaccine market. The bear case is also plausible given the current valuation and cash burn, and the bull case requires successful commercialization and favorable market conditions. Overall, the risk/reward is skewed to the downside in the near term.
MRNA is significantly overvalued based on traditional metrics. The EV/Sales ratio is 32.13x, which is exceptionally high for a company with negative operating margins of -158.1% and declining revenue. The trailing PS ratio is 5.90x, but this is misleading because it uses a trailing revenue base that includes the stronger 2025 quarters; the current run-rate revenue is much lower. The forward PE is -42.69, implying the market does not expect profitability in the forward period. Compared to its own history, the PS ratio has ranged from over 200x in loss-heavy quarters to 9.9x in Q3 2025, so the current 5.90x is near the low end of its historical band, but this is due to the trailing revenue base. The market is pricing in enormous future success from the cancer vaccine and flu vaccine, with estimated EPS averaging $3.42, which would represent a dramatic swing to profitability. Until that materializes, the stock is overvalued relative to its fundamentals and analyst targets.
From a risk/reward perspective, MRNA is not an attractive buy at the current price of $190.01. The consensus analyst target is $120.67, implying 36.5% downside, and not a single analyst's published target is above the current price. The stock has rallied 569.76% over the past year, driven by the cancer vaccine Phase 3 success, but the company remains deeply unprofitable with a net margin of -539.3% and free cash flow of -$1.223 billion. The biggest downside risk is a delay or disappointment in the cancer vaccine launch, which could trigger a sharp re-rating toward the analyst low target of $45. For risk-tolerant investors with a long-term horizon, a small position could be justified as a speculative bet on the mRNA platform, but only after a significant pullback to the $120-$140 range would provide a more favorable entry point.
MRNA is more suitable for long-term investment than short-term trading, but only for risk-tolerant investors who can withstand significant volatility. The company is in a growth stage with a beta of 1.106, no dividend, and negative earnings, making it unsuitable for income-focused investors. The earnings visibility is low, as the company is unprofitable and the cancer vaccine commercialization timeline is uncertain. Short-term trading is highly risky due to the stock's extreme volatility, as evidenced by the August 19 gap from ~$63 to $174 in a single session. A suggested minimum holding period is 3-5 years to allow for the cancer vaccine and flu vaccine to reach the market and generate revenue. However, investors should be prepared for potential drawdowns of 30-50% along the way, and position sizing should be conservative.