PM

Philip Morris International

$180.19

-0.79%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) is a global tobacco company that sells cigarettes and reduced-risk products, including heated tobacco (IQOS), vapes (Veev), and oral nicotine (Zyn), primarily outside the United States. As a dominant player in the tobacco industry, PMI holds leading positions in both combustible and smoke-free categories, with IQOS and Zyn commanding significant market share in their respective segments. The current investor narrative centers on PMI's transformation toward a smoke-free future, driven by strong growth in reduced-risk products and the 2023 acquisition of Swedish Match, which bolstered its oral nicotine portfolio. Recent attention has focused on the company's ability to sustain margin expansion and navigate regulatory headwinds while delivering consistent dividend growth.

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PM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $180.19
Average Target $180.19
High Target $207.22
Low Target $153.16

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Philip Morris International's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $234.25 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$234.25

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$144 - $234

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

PM is covered by 5 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish. The distribution includes 3 Buy/Overweight ratings, 1 Hold, and 1 Neutral, with no Sell ratings. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on estimated EPS of $12.25 and a forward P/E of 19.91x, the implied target is approximately $244, representing +34% upside from the current price of $181.62. The consensus recommendation is Overweight, reflecting positive sentiment. The estimated EPS range is $12.01 to $12.77, and revenue estimates range from $52.18 billion to $54.73 billion. The high target assumes continued strong growth in reduced-risk products and margin expansion, while the low target may price in regulatory risks or slower adoption of smoke-free products. Recent ratings actions include Citigroup and Needham reiterating Buy, Jefferies downgrading to Hold, and JP Morgan and Barclays maintaining Overweight, indicating a generally positive but cautious outlook. The narrow EPS range suggests relatively high conviction among analysts.

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PM Technical Analysis

PM is in a sustained uptrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of +34.81%. The current price of $181.62 sits at 94.1% of its 52-week range ($142.11–$193.05), indicating the stock is near the top of its range, reflecting strong momentum and investor optimism. This positioning near highs suggests the market is pricing in continued positive fundamentals, though it also raises the risk of overextension. Over the past 3 months, PM has gained 13.19%, while the 1-month change is -0.73%, showing a slight short-term pullback from the recent peak. This divergence between the strong 3-month trend and the mild 1-month decline could signal a temporary consolidation or profit-taking, rather than a trend reversal, especially given the stock's relative strength versus the S&P 500 (relative strength 3-month: +2.08%). The 52-week low of $142.11 provides a key support level, while the 52-week high of $193.05 acts as resistance. A breakout above $193.05 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $142.11 would indicate a bearish reversal. With a beta of 0.405, PM is significantly less volatile than the market, making it a defensive holding with lower risk for drawdowns.

Beta

0.41

0.41x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-22.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$142-$193

Price range past year

Annual Return

+0.2%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodPM ReturnS&P 500
1m-2.2%+1.0%
3m+13.0%+7.9%
6m+5.3%+8.5%
1y+0.2%+20.1%
ytd+12.4%+9.9%

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PM Fundamental Analysis

PM's revenue trajectory is growing, with Q4 2025 revenue of $10.362 billion, up 6.76% year-over-year. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth: Q1 2025 revenue was $9.301 billion, Q2 $10.140 billion, Q3 $10.845 billion, and Q4 $10.362 billion, indicating a steady upward trajectory. Revenue segments reveal that Reduced-Risk Products contributed $4.353 billion in the latest quarter, while Combustible Products generated $6.009 billion, highlighting the shift toward smoke-free offerings as a key growth driver. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $2.141 billion and a gross margin of 65.64%. Net margin improved to 20.66% in Q4 2025 from -5.97% in Q4 2024, reflecting a strong recovery from the prior year's loss. Operating margin stood at 32.55%, consistent with industry-leading levels, and has been stable over recent quarters, indicating efficient cost management. PM's balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of -4.89 (negative equity due to share buybacks and dividends), but the company generates robust free cash flow of $10.664 billion on a trailing twelve-month basis. The current ratio of 0.96 suggests adequate liquidity, while the free cash flow yield of approximately 4.3% (FCF/ market cap) supports dividend sustainability and internal funding for growth initiatives.

Quarterly Revenue

$10.4B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+6.76%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

65.64%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$10.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Combustible Products
Reduced-Risk Products

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Valuation Analysis: Is PM Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. PM's trailing P/E is 22.06x, while the forward P/E is 19.91x, indicating the market expects earnings growth over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E implies an anticipated earnings increase of about 10.8%. Compared to the industry average P/E of 22.0x (estimated from sector data), PM trades roughly in line with the sector, suggesting no significant premium or discount. However, its PEG ratio of 0.36x indicates that the stock is undervalued relative to its earnings growth rate, as a PEG below 1.0 typically signals undervaluation. Historically, PM's trailing P/E has ranged from approximately 14x to 29x over the past five years. The current 22.06x is near the middle of this range, suggesting the stock is fairly valued relative to its own history. This positioning implies that the market is pricing in moderate growth expectations, neither overly optimistic nor pessimistic.

PE

22.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

High-End

5-Year PE Range -81x~29x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

16.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple