MO

Altria

$69.51

+0.56%
Jun 22, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Altria Group, Inc. is a leading tobacco company in the United States, operating primarily through its subsidiaries Philip Morris USA, U.S. Smokeless Tobacco, and John Middleton, with its core business focused on cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and cigars. The company is a dominant market leader, holding the top position in cigarettes and smokeless tobacco domestically, anchored by its flagship Marlboro brand which commands a 40% market share. The current investor narrative revolves around its high-yield dividend appeal and defensive characteristics, balanced against the secular decline of its core combustible tobacco business and its ongoing, yet challenging, strategic pivot into reduced-risk products like vaping (via NJOY), heated tobacco, and nicotine pouches, alongside its significant equity stakes in Anheuser-Busch InBev and Cronos Group.

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MO 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $69.51
Average Target $69.51
High Target $79.9365
Low Target $59.0835

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Altria's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $90.36 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$90.36

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$56 - $90

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Analyst coverage is limited, with only 6 analysts providing estimates, indicating this large-cap stock has subdued institutional research interest. The consensus sentiment is mixed, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings which include two 'Buy' ratings (UBS, Stifel), one 'Neutral' (Citigroup), and one 'Underweight' (Barclays); the average target price is not explicitly provided in the data, so implied upside cannot be calculated, but the recent actions show a lack of strong directional conviction. The target price range is also not available in the provided dataset; however, the wide dispersion in analyst recommendations (from Underweight to Buy) and the low number of covering analysts signal higher uncertainty regarding the company's long-term transition narrative, which can lead to less efficient price discovery and potentially higher volatility driven by company-specific news rather than analyst revisions.

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MO Technical Analysis

The stock is in a sustained uptrend, having gained 16.19% over the past year, and is currently trading near the top of its 52-week range, with the recent close of $69.12 sitting just 0.6% below the 52-week high of $74.56. This positioning near multi-month highs reflects strong momentum but also suggests the stock may be extended and vulnerable to a pullback. Recent momentum has been volatile and negative in the short term, with the stock declining 6.59% over the past month, which diverges from and decelerates the positive 7.21% gain over the last three months; this one-month underperformance, coupled with a relative strength reading of -7.33 against the S&P 500, indicates a period of consolidation or profit-taking after the strong run-up earlier in the year. Key technical support is at the 52-week low of $54.70, while immediate resistance is at the recent high of $74.56; a decisive breakout above resistance could signal a resumption of the primary uptrend, while a breakdown below the $65 area could indicate a deeper correction, with the stock's low beta of 0.501 indicating it is roughly half as volatile as the broader market, which provides some downside cushion during periods of market stress.

Beta

0.50

0.50x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$55-$75

Price range past year

Annual Return

+16.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMO ReturnS&P 500
1m-5.9%-0.2%
3m+8.1%+14.0%
6m+17.9%+7.8%
1y+16.3%+25.3%
ytd+21.3%+9.2%

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MO Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth is modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $5.85 billion representing a 14.49% year-over-year increase, though this figure is elevated by a low prior-year comparable; segment data shows the Smokeable Products division generated $5.12 billion (87.5% of total), indicating the core cigarette business remains the dominant but slow-growth driver, while Smokeless Products contributed $706 million. The company is highly profitable, with Q4 net income of $1.12 billion and a robust gross margin of 62.11%, although this quarterly gross margin has compressed from 72.58% in Q3, reflecting potential mix shifts or cost pressures; the trailing twelve-month net margin is a strong 34.50%, showcasing the firm's ability to convert sales into earnings despite industry headwinds. The balance sheet is leveraged, with a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -7.34 due to shareholder deficits, but the company generates substantial cash, with TTM free cash flow of $9.07 billion, providing ample coverage for its generous dividend (payout ratio of 100.19%) and supporting financial flexibility for strategic investments in reduced-risk categories.

Quarterly Revenue

$5.8B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.14%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.62%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$9.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Smokeable Products
Smokeless Products
Other Segments

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Valuation Analysis: Is MO Overvalued?

Given the positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The stock trades at a trailing PE of 13.92x and a forward PE of 11.77x based on estimated EPS; the forward multiple being lower suggests the market anticipates modest earnings growth. Compared to sector averages, Altria's trailing PE of 13.92x is at a discount to the broader Consumer Defensive sector (industry average PE not provided, but typical for tobacco is low-to-mid teens), while its Price-to-Sales ratio of 4.80x and EV/EBITDA of 10.89x appear reasonable for a stable, cash-generative business in a mature industry. Historically, the current trailing PE of 13.92x sits below its own 5-year average, as seen in the historical data where PE ratios have fluctuated between approximately 5x and 23x over recent quarters, suggesting the stock is not at extreme historical valuation levels and may offer relative value if earnings stabilize.

PE

14.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -8x~81x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple