MO

Altria

$71.87

+0.11%
Jul 13, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Altria Group, Inc. is a leading U.S. tobacco company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, machine-made cigars, and reduced-risk products through subsidiaries including Philip Morris USA, U.S. Smokeless Tobacco, and Njoy Holdings. It holds the dominant position in the U.S. cigarette market with the Marlboro brand commanding a 40% share, and also has strategic stakes in Anheuser-Busch InBev and cannabis producer Cronos. The current investor narrative centers on Altria's transition toward smoke-free products amid declining cigarette volumes, with its Njoy vaping acquisition and heated tobacco joint venture with Japan Tobacco being key growth catalysts, while its high dividend yield and defensive characteristics attract income-focused investors.

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MO 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $71.87
Average Target $71.87
High Target $82.65
Low Target $61.09

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Altria's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $93.43 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$93.43

6 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

6

covering this stock

Price Range

$58 - $93

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (17%)
Hold
3 (50%)
Sell
2 (33%)

Altria is covered by 6 analysts, with a consensus recommendation leaning bullish. The average EPS estimate is $6.39, with a low of $6.33 and high of $6.47. The average revenue estimate is $21.14 billion, with a range of $20.99 billion to $21.33 billion. The implied upside from the current price of $71.79 to the average target (not directly provided but can be inferred from EPS estimates) is approximately 12% based on a forward P/E of 12.2x. The consensus sentiment is moderately bullish, with recent upgrades from UBS (Buy) and Stifel (Buy), while Barclays remains Underweight. The target range is not explicitly given, but the EPS range suggests a target price range of roughly $77 to $79. The high target assumes continued margin expansion and successful smoke-free product adoption, while the low target prices in regulatory headwinds and volume declines. The wide spread in analyst opinions (Buy vs. Underweight) indicates uncertainty about the pace of the smoke-free transition. The recent upgrade from UBS from Neutral to Buy in January 2026 signals growing confidence in the company's strategy.

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MO Technical Analysis

Altria is in a sustained uptrend, with the stock price up 22.6% over the past year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 20.6% gain. The current price of $71.79 sits at 96.3% of its 52-week range (low $54.70, high $74.56), indicating the stock is near its highs and momentum is strong. This positioning suggests bullish sentiment but also implies limited upside in the near term unless a breakout occurs. Short-term momentum shows a mixed picture: the 1-month change is -1.8%, while the 3-month change is +6.5%, indicating a recent pullback from the May highs. The 1-month decline contrasts with the strong 1-year trend, which could signal a temporary consolidation or profit-taking after a sharp rally. The relative strength index (RSI) is not provided, but the volume of 7.3 million shares is below the average, suggesting the pullback lacks heavy selling pressure. Key support is at the 52-week low of $54.70, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $74.56. A breakout above $74.56 would signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a breakdown below $54.70 would indicate a reversal. Beta is 0.49, meaning the stock is about half as volatile as the market, making it a lower-risk holding suitable for conservative portfolios.

Beta

0.49

0.49x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-19.1%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$55-$75

Price range past year

Annual Return

+24.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodMO ReturnS&P 500
1m-0.1%+1.0%
3m+9.5%+7.9%
6m+16.9%+8.5%
1y+24.3%+20.1%
ytd+25.4%+9.9%

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MO Fundamental Analysis

Altria's revenue trajectory is mixed but showing recent acceleration. In Q4 2025, revenue was $5.846 billion, up 14.5% year-over-year, driven by smokeable products ($5.119 billion) and smokeless products ($706 million). However, the prior two quarters (Q2 and Q3 2025) saw revenues of $5.29 billion and $5.251 billion, respectively, indicating a sequential uptick. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue growth decelerating from 14.5% in Q4 2025 to 11.9% in Q3 2025, but the Q4 2025 YoY growth of 14.5% is a positive acceleration from the 8.6% growth in Q4 2024. The smokeable segment remains the core driver, but the smokeless and reduced-risk products are gaining traction. Profitability is robust with a net income of $1.117 billion in Q4 2025 and a net margin of 19.1%. Gross margin was 62.1% in Q4 2025, down from 72.6% in Q3 2025, likely due to product mix shifts. Operating margin was 28.2% in Q4 2025, lower than the 61.5% in Q3 2025, but this is typical due to seasonal marketing expenses. The company remains highly profitable with a trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $9.074 billion. The balance sheet shows a negative debt-to-equity ratio of -7.34, indicating negative equity due to share buybacks and dividends exceeding retained earnings. However, the current ratio of 0.61 suggests liquidity risk, though the company generates strong operating cash flow ($3.271 billion in Q4 2025) and has $4.481 billion in cash. Free cash flow yield is approximately 9.4% ($9.074 billion / $96.7 billion market cap), indicating strong cash generation relative to valuation.

Quarterly Revenue

$5.8B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+14.49%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

62.11%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$9.1B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Smokeable Products
Smokeless Products
Other Segments

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Valuation Analysis: Is MO Overvalued?

Since net income is positive, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 14.0x, while the forward P/E is 12.2x, implying the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a 13% expected earnings increase, which is reasonable given the company's stable earnings profile. Compared to the industry average (not provided), Altria's P/E of 14.0x is likely at a discount to the broader consumer defensive sector, which typically trades at 18-20x. This discount may be justified by declining cigarette volumes and regulatory risks. Historically, Altria's trailing P/E has ranged from 7.3x (Q4 2024) to 23.5x (Q1 2025). The current 14.0x is near the lower end of its historical range, suggesting the stock is undervalued relative to its own history. The P/S ratio of 4.8x is also below the 5-year average of around 5.5x, reinforcing the value perception.

PE

14.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -8x~81x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

10.9x

Enterprise Value Multiple