RYTM

Rhythm (United states)

$108.40

-6.13%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapies for rare neuroendocrine diseases, primarily through its melanocortin-4 receptor (MC4R) agonist platform, including the approved drug IMCIVREE (setmelanotide) for hyperphagia and severe obesity caused by rare MC4R pathway diseases. As a precision medicine leader in a niche rare disease space, the company differentiates itself by targeting genetically defined obesity with a first-in-class therapy. The current investor narrative centers on the recent clinical setback in March 2026, where a key trial failed to meet primary endpoints, forcing a strategic pivot toward next-generation candidates like RM-718 and bivamelagon, while the stock has shown strong recovery momentum in recent months, driven by optimism around pipeline progress and commercial execution.

People also watch

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

Vertex Pharmaceuticals

VRTX

Analysis
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals

REGN

Analysis
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

Alnylam Pharmaceuticals

ALNY

Analysis
Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock

Revolution Medicines, Inc. Common Stock

RVMD

Analysis
BeOne Medicines Ltd. American Depositary Shares

BeOne Medicines Ltd. American Depositary Shares

ONC

Analysis

RYTM 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $108.40
Average Target $108.40
High Target $124.66
Low Target $92.14

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Rhythm (United states)'s 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $140.92 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$140.92

5 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

5

covering this stock

Price Range

$87 - $141

Analyst target range

Buy
1 (20%)
Hold
2 (40%)
Sell
2 (40%)

Five analysts cover RYTM, with a consensus leaning bullish: all recent ratings are Buy or Outperform (HC Wainwright, BofA, Citizens, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital). The average estimated EPS is $10.19, with a low of $8.56 and high of $11.75, while average revenue estimate is $1.80 billion (low $1.58B, high $2.01B). The average target price is not directly provided, but based on the forward PE of -154x (negative earnings), the target is likely derived from revenue multiples. The implied upside from the current price of $114.17 to the average revenue-based target (assuming a 5x PS on $1.8B revenue gives ~$135) would be approximately +18%. The target range is wide: the low revenue estimate of $1.58B implies a downside risk, while the high of $2.01B suggests significant upside potential. The wide spread indicates high uncertainty around commercial adoption and pipeline success. Recent ratings have been reaffirmed (no downgrades), with firms like HC Wainwright and Citigroup reiterating Buy after the March 2026 trial miss, signaling confidence in the long-term pipeline. The tight consensus of bullish ratings suggests strong conviction among covering analysts, despite the clinical setback.

Drowning in data?

Find the real signal!

RYTM Technical Analysis

The stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +70.6%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +19.1%. Currently trading at $114.17, it sits at 93.5% of its 52-week range ($64.65–$122.20), indicating the stock is near its highs, suggesting bullish momentum but also potential overextension. The price is just 6.6% below the 52-week high of $122.20, reflecting strong buying interest and a market pricing in positive expectations. Short-term momentum is accelerating sharply, with a 1-month price change of +35.4% and a 3-month change of +32.3%, both far outpacing the S&P 500's -1.25% and +13.6%, respectively. This divergence from the broader market signals strong stock-specific catalysts, likely tied to pipeline updates or commercial progress, though the rapid rise raises caution about a potential pullback. The 1-month relative strength of +36.6% versus the S&P 500 confirms exceptional near-term outperformance. Key support lies at the 52-week low of $64.65, while resistance is at the 52-week high of $122.20. A breakout above $122.20 would signal a new uptrend leg, targeting higher levels, while a breakdown below $64.65 would indicate a bearish reversal. With a beta of 1.883, the stock is 88.3% more volatile than the market, meaning it amplifies market moves—a risk factor for position sizing.

Beta

1.88

1.88x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-35.5%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$75-$122

Price range past year

Annual Return

+21.7%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodRYTM ReturnS&P 500
1m+26.5%+4.1%
3m+28.5%+11.1%
6m+7.3%+8.8%
1y+21.7%+20.6%
ytd+3.2%+10.7%

Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner

Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions

RYTM Fundamental Analysis

Revenue is growing strongly, with Q4 2025 revenue of $57.3 million, up 36.9% year-over-year from $41.8 million in Q4 2024, driven by product sales of $57.3 million and license revenue of $10.0 million. The multi-quarter trend shows accelerating growth: Q1 2025 revenue was $32.7 million, Q2 $48.5 million, Q3 $51.3 million, and Q4 $57.3 million, indicating a robust commercial ramp for IMCIVREE. This growth trajectory supports the investment case as the company expands its rare disease market penetration. The company remains unprofitable, with a net loss of -$47.5 million in Q4 2025 and a trailing twelve-month net income of -$196.5 million (sum of quarterly losses). Gross margin is high at 91.6% in Q4 2025, reflecting the premium pricing of its precision therapy, but operating margin is deeply negative at -82.2%, driven by high R&D ($42.0 million) and SG&A ($57.5 million) expenses. The net margin improved from -103.5% in Q4 2024 to -83.0% in Q4 2025, showing gradual operating leverage as revenue scales. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 4.41, indicating strong liquidity, but debt-to-equity of 1.77 is elevated, reflecting $1.77 of debt for every $1 of equity. Free cash flow is negative at -$26.3 million in Q4 2025 and -$116.6 million TTM, meaning the company relies on external financing (equity and debt) to fund operations. ROE is deeply negative at -141.3%, highlighting shareholder value destruction from losses, though this is typical for pre-profitable biotechs.

Quarterly Revenue

$57253000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+36.87%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

91.61%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-116628000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

License
Product

Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!

Valuation Analysis: Is RYTM Overvalued?

Since net income is negative (TTM net loss of -$196.5 million), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PS ratio is 36.7x, while the forward PS ratio (based on estimated revenue of $1.8 billion) is approximately 3.9x, implying the market expects massive revenue growth. The wide gap between trailing and forward PS reflects aggressive growth expectations baked into the stock price. Compared to the biotechnology industry average PS ratio of roughly 6-8x, RYTM's trailing PS of 36.7x represents a significant premium (over 4x the industry average). This premium may be justified by the company's high gross margins (91.6%) and strong revenue growth (36.9% YoY), but it also prices in substantial future commercialization success. Historically, the stock's PS ratio has ranged from 23x (in early 2022) to over 125x (in late 2025), with the current 36.7x near the lower end of its historical band. This suggests the stock is relatively cheaper compared to its own history, potentially offering value if growth materializes, but the low end also reflects past clinical setbacks and profitability concerns.

PE

-34.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -38x~6x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-41.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple