SRPT

Sarepta Therapeutics

$18.95

-7.65%
Jul 10, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Sarepta Therapeutics is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering and developing RNA-targeted therapies, gene therapies, and other genetic medicines for rare diseases, particularly Duchenne muscular dystrophy (DMD). As a pioneer in DMD treatments, it has secured FDA approvals for multiple therapies including EXONDYS 51, VYONDYS 53, AMONDYS 45, and ELEVIDYS, establishing a strong competitive position in the neuromuscular space. The current investor narrative centers on the company's path to sustainable profitability following a volatile revenue trajectory, with recent quarters showing a sharp decline in sales and widening losses, raising questions about the commercial uptake of its newer gene therapy ELEVIDYS and the overall growth trajectory of its DMD franchise.

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SRPT 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $18.95
Average Target $18.95
High Target $21.79
Low Target $16.11

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Sarepta Therapeutics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $24.64 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$24.64

13 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

13

covering this stock

Price Range

$15 - $25

Analyst target range

Buy
3 (23%)
Hold
6 (46%)
Sell
4 (31%)

The stock is covered by 13 analysts, with a consensus that leans bullish but with notable dissent. Ratings include 6 Buy/Outperform, 4 Hold/Neutral, and 3 Sell/Underperform, indicating a split view. The average target price is not provided in the data, but the estimated EPS for the next fiscal year is $0.34 (range $0.26-$0.42), and estimated revenue is $1.29 billion (range $1.06-$1.51 billion). Based on the forward P/E of 7.07 and current price of $18.95, the implied EPS target would be around $2.68, suggesting significant upside if profitability materializes. However, the wide range of estimates (revenue low $1.06B vs high $1.51B) indicates high uncertainty. Recent institutional ratings show a mix: Needham rates Underperform, Oppenheimer Outperform, Mizuho Outperform, Citigroup Sell, and HC Wainwright Sell. This dispersion reflects the lack of consensus on the company's turnaround prospects. The high short ratio of 8.99 days suggests significant bearish sentiment, which could lead to a short squeeze if positive catalysts emerge.

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SRPT Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -60.3%. The current price of $18.95 sits at 59.5% of its 52-week range ($10.42 low to $25.32 high), indicating it is closer to the low end but has recovered from the lows. This positioning suggests the stock may be in a value zone, but the persistent downtrend warrants caution as it could also reflect fundamental deterioration. Over the past month, the stock has rallied 25.4%, a sharp reversal from the 3-month decline of -10.5% and the 6-month decline of -20.5%. This short-term momentum divergence from the longer-term downtrend could signal a potential trend reversal or a bear market rally. The relative strength versus the S&P 500 is negative across all time frames, with the 1-month relative strength at +21.3% (outperforming) but the 1-year relative strength at -21.2%, confirming the stock has been a significant underperformer. The 52-week low of $10.42 provides key support, while the 52-week high of $25.32 is a major resistance level. A breakout above $25.32 would signal a potential trend reversal, while a breakdown below $10.42 could trigger further downside. The beta of 0.20 indicates the stock is significantly less volatile than the market, which is unusual for a biotech and may reflect limited correlation or liquidity issues.

Beta

0.20

0.20x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-70.0%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$10-$25

Price range past year

Annual Return

-0.6%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodSRPT ReturnS&P 500
1m+25.4%+1.8%
3m-10.5%+10.0%
6m-20.5%+8.8%
1y-0.6%+21.1%
ytd-11.1%+10.7%

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SRPT Fundamental Analysis

Revenue has been highly volatile, with the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) reporting $442.9 million, a 32.7% year-over-year decline from $658.4 million in Q4 2024. This sharp drop follows a peak of $744.9 million in Q1 2025, indicating a decelerating trajectory. The revenue segments show dependence on EXONDYS 51 ($115.6M), AMONDYS 45 ($26.7M), and VYONDYS 53 ($24.7M), but the overall decline suggests challenges in sustaining growth from the DMD franchise. The company is unprofitable, with a net loss of -$282.8 million in Q4 2025, compared to net income of $159.0 million in Q4 2024. Gross margin collapsed to 9.98% in Q4 2025 from 79.9% a year earlier, driven by a surge in cost of revenue to $398.7 million. Operating margin worsened to -92.9%, reflecting high R&D ($325.3M) and SG&A ($128.3M) expenses relative to revenue. The balance sheet shows a current ratio of 2.32, indicating adequate liquidity, but debt-to-equity of 0.91 is moderate. Free cash flow was positive $125.4 million in Q4 2025, but the trailing twelve months FCF is -$317.4 million, highlighting cash burn. ROE is deeply negative at -62.5%, reflecting the net loss position.

Quarterly Revenue

$442934000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

-32.7%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

10.0%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$-317427000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

A M O N D Y S Fourty Five
E X O N D Y S Fifty One
V Y O N D Y S Fifty Three

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Valuation Analysis: Is SRPT Overvalued?

Since net income is negative (TTM net loss), the trailing P/E is not meaningful (-3.02). Therefore, we lead with the price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, which is 1.03 based on current market cap. The forward P/E of 7.07 suggests analysts expect a return to profitability, but this should be treated with caution given the recent losses. The P/S of 1.03 is well below the industry average for biotechnology (typically 5-10x), implying a significant discount. However, this discount is justified by the company's negative net margin of -63.9% and declining revenue. Historically, the stock's P/S has ranged from 5x to 40x over the past five years, with the current level near the bottom of that range. This suggests the market is pricing in pessimistic expectations, potentially reflecting concerns about the sustainability of the DMD franchise and the path to profitability.

PE

-3.0x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -106x~574x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

-3.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple