U

Unity Technologies

$26.47

-5.67%
Jun 17, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Unity Software Inc. provides a foundational software platform for creating and operating interactive, real-time 2D and 3D content, serving industries from gaming and automotive to architecture and retail. The company is a dominant player in the game development engine market, competing primarily with Unreal Engine, and has expanded its identity into a broader real-time 3D platform company. The current investor narrative is a dramatic turnaround story, with the stock surging in March 2026 after the company raised Q1 revenue guidance, crediting its Vector AI platform and a strategic restructuring, following a severe decline that had attracted concentrated bets from funds betting on an ad-tech and pricing model recovery.

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U 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $26.47
Average Target $26.47
High Target $30.440499999999997
Low Target $22.499499999999998

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Unity Technologies's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $34.41 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$34.41

15 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

15

covering this stock

Price Range

$21 - $34

Analyst target range

Buy
4 (27%)
Hold
7 (47%)
Sell
4 (27%)

The stock is covered by 15 analysts, indicating substantial institutional interest. While a consensus recommendation and average target price are not explicitly provided in the data, the institutional ratings show a clear bullish tilt, with recent actions including multiple 'Buy', 'Overweight', and 'Outperform' ratings from firms like Wedbush, Needham, BTIG, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo, and a notable upgrade from B of A Securities from 'Underperform' to 'Neutral'. This pattern suggests analyst sentiment is improving, aligning with the company's raised guidance and restructuring efforts. The target price range is not specified in the provided data, but the presence of both bullish and neutral ratings implies a spread in expectations. The high targets likely assume successful execution of the Vector AI platform, subscription model transition, and margin expansion, while the low targets or prior downgrades likely reflected concerns over growth deceleration, competitive pressures, and execution risks. The recent cluster of reaffirmed bullish ratings in late March 2026, concurrent with the guidance raise, signals strengthening conviction in the near-term turnaround, though the high short ratio of 3.18 indicates significant remaining skepticism that must be overcome.

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U Technical Analysis

The stock is in a volatile recovery phase from deep lows, with a 1-year price change of 9.05% masking a tumultuous journey that includes a 6-month decline of -40.99%. Currently trading at $27.24, the price sits at approximately 77% of its 52-week range ($16.78 to $52.15), indicating it has recovered significantly from its lows but remains well off its highs, suggesting room for further recovery if the turnaround narrative holds but facing substantial overhead resistance. Recent momentum has been exceptionally strong, with a 3-month surge of 40.20% and a 1-month gain of 1.30%, sharply diverging from the longer-term downtrend; this powerful short-term rally, highlighted by a spike from below $20 in late March to over $32 in early June, signals a potential trend reversal driven by positive fundamental catalysts, though the recent pullback from the June highs suggests consolidation. Key technical support is the 52-week low of $16.78, a level that represents the recent capitulation point, while major resistance is the 52-week high of $52.15. A sustained breakout above the recent June high near $32 could signal the next leg of the recovery, while a breakdown below the $20 support level would threaten the nascent uptrend. The stock's beta of 2.046 indicates it is over 100% more volatile than the broader market (SPY), which is critical for risk management as this high volatility amplifies both upside moves and potential drawdowns, as evidenced by the -65.37% max drawdown.

Beta

2.05

2.05x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-65.4%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$17-$52

Price range past year

Annual Return

+12.4%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodU ReturnS&P 500
1m-1.2%+0.3%
3m+38.2%+12.3%
6m-43.0%+8.9%
1y+12.4%+24.0%
ytd-40.2%+8.7%

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U Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has been modest but positive, with Q4 2025 revenue of $503.1 million representing a 10.1% year-over-year increase; however, examining the quarterly trend from the income statement shows revenue has been relatively flat sequentially ($435.0M in Q1, $440.9M in Q2, $470.6M in Q3, $503.1M in Q4), suggesting stabilization rather than robust acceleration, though the recent guidance raise points to potential re-acceleration. The company remains deeply unprofitable, with a Q4 2025 net income of -$89.96 million and a net margin of -17.9%, but there is a clear improving trajectory as losses have narrowed significantly from -$291.1 million in Q1 2024; gross margin was 61.2% in Q4, down from the 74.1% trailing gross margin, indicating potential product mix shifts or cost pressures that require monitoring against the industry-typical high software margins. The balance sheet shows a strong liquidity position with a current ratio of 1.84 and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.74, indicating manageable financial leverage. Crucially, the company is generating substantial free cash flow, with TTM free cash flow of $403.9 million, providing an internal funding source for its turnaround efforts and reducing reliance on external capital; this positive cash generation, coupled with an ROE of -12.4%, underscores that while the equity base is being eroded by losses, the operational cash flow story is a key pillar of the bull case.

Quarterly Revenue

$503089000.0B

2025-12

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.10%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.61%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$403931000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

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Valuation Analysis: Is U Overvalued?

Given the consistent net losses (Net Income ≤ 0), the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio. The trailing PS ratio is an elevated 10.05x, while the forward PS (based on estimated revenue of $3.66 billion) would be approximately 5.1x, indicating the market is pricing in significant revenue growth and margin improvement expectations for the coming year. The wide gap between trailing and implied forward multiples reflects anticipation that the recent strategic initiatives will drive both top-line expansion and a path to profitability. Comparing to industry averages is challenging as specific sector multiples are not provided in the data, but the stock's EV/Sales of 6.30x can be contextualized; for a software company in a turnaround phase with high growth potential, this multiple suggests a market valuation that is not excessively demanding if execution succeeds, but it also does not price in deep distress, indicating cautious optimism. The current PS ratio of 10.05x sits well below its own historical extremes seen in 2021 (e.g., 129.6x at the end of 2021), representing a massive de-rating; however, it remains above the lower end of its historical range observed in 2022 (e.g., 13.8x in mid-2022), suggesting the stock is no longer in deep value territory but is pricing in a credible recovery narrative.

PE

-46.2x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range -77x~-9x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

210.8x

Enterprise Value Multiple