Archer Daniels Midland
ADM
$80.04
+0.62%
Archer Daniels Midland Company is a global agricultural processor and commodity trader, primarily engaged in the processing of oilseeds, corn, and wheat, as well as the merchandising and transportation of grains through its extensive logistical network. The company is a dominant market leader in agricultural supply chains, distinguished by its massive scale, integrated global asset base, and a growing nutrition business focused on human and animal ingredients. The current investor narrative centers on navigating volatile commodity markets and a potential recovery from recent operational headwinds, with recent financial trends showing a significant year-over-year stock price appreciation of over 60% suggesting a market reassessment of its earnings power and strategic positioning.…
ADM
Archer Daniels Midland
$80.04
ADM 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Archer Daniels Midland's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $104.05 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$104.05
3 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
3
covering this stock
Price Range
$64 - $104
Analyst target range
Analyst coverage for ADM is limited, with only 3 analysts providing estimates, indicating this large-cap stock may have subdued institutional interest or consensus is difficult to gauge amidst commodity volatility. The consensus leans bearish to neutral, as evidenced by recent institutional ratings including 'Underweight' from JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley and 'Equal Weight' from Barclays, with no recent 'Buy' ratings aside from a UBS note in August 2025. The average revenue estimate for the period is $85.77 billion, with a wide range from $80.47 billion to $98.85 billion, and the average EPS estimate is $4.67, ranging from $4.29 to $5.60, reflecting high uncertainty around commodity prices and company-specific execution. The wide target spread signals low conviction and high uncertainty regarding ADM's near-term earnings trajectory, which is typical for companies in cyclical and commodity-dependent industries.
ADM Technical Analysis
The stock is in a sustained and powerful uptrend, evidenced by a 61.63% gain over the past year, and is currently trading near the top of its 52-week range, approximately 93% of the way from its low of $46.81 to its high of $83.10. This positioning near multi-year highs indicates strong bullish momentum but also raises questions about potential overextension. Recent momentum remains robust, with the stock up 11.65% over the past month and 14.20% over the past three months, significantly outperforming the SPY's gains of 4.84% and 8.15% over the same periods, respectively. This short-term acceleration confirms the strength of the longer-term uptrend without signs of divergence. Key technical support is anchored at the 52-week low of $46.81, while immediate resistance lies at the 52-week high of $83.10; a decisive breakout above this level could signal a continuation of the bullish trend. The stock's beta of 0.578 indicates it is approximately 42% less volatile than the broader market, which is unusually low for a commodity-linked stock and suggests it has acted as a relative safe haven or stable performer during recent market movements.
Beta
0.58
0.58x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-12.8%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$47-$83
Price range past year
Annual Return
+65.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ADM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.9% | +6.0% |
| 3m | +15.9% | +10.0% |
| 6m | +31.8% | +10.4% |
| 1y | +65.5% | +28.4% |
| ytd | +35.5% | +10.7% |
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ADM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has been inconsistent, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $18.56 billion representing a year-over-year decline of 13.68%, continuing a trend of volatility seen in prior quarters like Q3 2025's $20.37 billion and Q2 2025's $21.19 billion. The Ag Services and Oilseeds segment, at $14.01 billion for the period, remains the dominant revenue driver, though overall top-line performance is heavily influenced by fluctuating commodity prices and volumes. The company remains profitable, posting net income of $456 million in Q4 2025, but profitability metrics are under pressure with a gross margin of 6.54% and a net margin of 2.46% for that quarter, reflecting the thin margins characteristic of the agricultural processing industry. The balance sheet and cash flow position appears mixed; the company boasts a very strong current ratio of 11.20 and a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.37, indicating solid liquidity and manageable leverage. However, trailing twelve-month free cash flow is a healthy $4.20 billion, supporting the company's ability to fund operations and return capital, though quarterly operating cash flow was negative $313 million in Q4 2025, highlighting potential working capital volatility.
Quarterly Revenue
$18.6B
2025-12
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.13%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
+0.06%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$4.2B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ADM Overvalued?
Given a positive net income of $456 million in the latest quarter, the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The stock trades at a trailing P/E of 25.81x and a forward P/E of 14.93x, with the forward multiple being 42% lower, indicating the market expects significant earnings growth or recovery in the coming year. Compared to sector averages, ADM's trailing P/E of 25.81x is above the typical range for low-margin, cyclical agricultural processors, suggesting the market may be assigning a premium for its scale, integrated model, or stable dividend. Historically, the current trailing P/E of 25.81x is above its own recent historical range observed in the data, which has fluctuated between approximately 10x and 66x over the past several quarters, positioning it at the higher end and implying the market is pricing in improved future earnings rather than past performance.
PE
25.8x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 9x~400x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple

