Autodesk
ADSK
$253.82
+1.12%
Autodesk Inc. is a multinational software corporation that develops computer-aided design (CAD) and building information modeling (BIM) software for the architecture, engineering, construction, manufacturing, and media & entertainment industries. As a pioneer in CAD with its flagship AutoCAD product, Autodesk holds a dominant market position, with its software used in iconic projects like the Burj Khalifa and films like Avatar. The current investor narrative centers on the company's transition to a subscription-based model, its growth in cloud and AI-driven design tools, and recent concerns about near-term execution and AI strategy, as highlighted by a stock dip despite a Q1 earnings beat and raised guidance.…
ADSK
Autodesk
$253.82
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy ADSK Today?
Rating: Buy. Autodesk is a high-quality software franchise with a dominant market position, strong revenue growth (18.4% YoY), and improving profitability (net margin 25.4%). The analyst consensus is Strong Buy with an average target of $314.19, implying 23.8% upside. The forward PE of 17.8x is attractive relative to the trailing 47.9x, suggesting the market expects significant earnings growth. With a gross margin of 91% and operating margin of 24.9%, the company has substantial operating leverage. Free cash flow of $2.73B TTM supports continued investment in cloud and AI initiatives.
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ADSK 12-Month Price Forecast
Autodesk is well-positioned to benefit from the digital transformation of design and construction, with a strong subscription model and high margins. The forward valuation is reasonable if the company can deliver on its growth expectations. However, the high PEG ratio and execution risks warrant caution. I would upgrade my stance if revenue growth accelerates above 20% or the stock pulls back to below $220, and downgrade if growth falls below 10% or margins compress.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Autodesk's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $314.57 and implied upside of +23.9% versus the current price.
Average Target
$314.57
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+23.9%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$221 - $456
Analyst target range
The target price range is $220.50 (low) to $456.00 (high), with the high target suggesting a potential upside of 79.7% from the current price, likely assuming strong growth in AI-driven design tools and successful cloud adoption. The low target implies a downside of 13.1%, possibly reflecting concerns about competition or macroeconomic headwinds. Recent ratings from firms like Rosenblatt, Piper Sandler, and RBC Capital have been reaffirmed as Buy/Overweight, with no downgrades, indicating stable or improving sentiment. The wide spread between low and high targets (over 100% difference) suggests significant uncertainty about the company's long-term growth trajectory.
Bulls vs Bears: ADSK Investment Factors
Autodesk presents a mixed picture: strong revenue growth, high margins, and a bullish analyst consensus are offset by elevated valuation, high leverage, and a history of underperformance. The bull case is supported by the company's dominant market position and improving profitability, while the bear case hinges on valuation risk and execution concerns. The most important tension is whether Autodesk can sustain its ~18% revenue growth and expand margins enough to justify the forward PE of 17.8x, which implies a doubling of earnings. If growth decelerates or AI strategy falters, the stock could fall toward the low target of $220.50; if execution improves, it could approach the high target of $456. Currently, the bull case has slightly stronger evidence given the strong buy consensus and recent momentum.
Bullish
- Strong revenue growth: Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 18.4% YoY to $1.934B, with consistent sequential growth across quarters. This demonstrates robust demand for Autodesk's design software across AEC, manufacturing, and media segments.
- High gross margin: Gross margin is 91.0%, reflecting the highly profitable subscription model. This provides significant operating leverage and supports continued investment in cloud and AI initiatives.
- Analyst strong buy consensus: With 34 analysts, the consensus is Strong Buy (mean rating 1.5). The average target price of $314.19 implies ~23.8% upside from the current price of $253.83, and the high target of $456 suggests 79.7% upside.
- Improving profitability: Net margin improved to 25.4% in Q1 FY2027 from 9.3% in Q1 FY2026, and EPS jumped to $2.33 from $0.71. This demonstrates successful execution of the subscription transition and cost discipline.
Bearish
- Elevated trailing valuation: The trailing PE is 47.9x, well above the market average. This leaves little room for error and makes the stock vulnerable to multiple compression if growth disappoints.
- High debt-to-equity: Debt-to-equity is 0.90, indicating significant leverage. This increases financial risk, especially if interest rates remain high or cash flows weaken.
- Negative 1-year performance: The stock is down 11.3% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 20.5%). This reflects persistent concerns about execution and AI strategy, as highlighted by the May 2026 earnings dip.
- Low current ratio: Current ratio is 0.85, indicating potential liquidity pressure. This could constrain near-term flexibility for investments or share buybacks.
ADSK Technical Analysis
Autodesk's stock is currently in a recovery phase after a significant drawdown, with the 1-year price change at -11.27% and the current price of $253.83 sitting at 48.6% of its 52-week range (between $185.50 low and $329.09 high). This positioning suggests the stock is recovering from a deep correction but remains well below its highs, indicating potential for further upside if momentum sustains. The 52-week low of $185.50 was tested in June 2026, and the subsequent rebound has been robust, but the stock still faces overhead resistance near its previous highs.
Beta
1.30
1.30x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-42.6%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$186-$329
Price range past year
Annual Return
-11.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | ADSK Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +24.7% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +5.3% | +2.7% |
| 6m | +11.8% | +11.4% |
| 1y | -11.3% | +18.7% |
| ytd | -11.5% | +12.3% |
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ADSK Fundamental Analysis
Autodesk's revenue growth has been solid, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2027, ending April 30, 2026) reporting revenue of $1.934 billion, a YoY increase of 18.4%. This growth is consistent with the prior quarters, which saw revenues of $1.957 billion (Q4 FY2026), $1.853 billion (Q3 FY2026), and $1.763 billion (Q2 FY2026), indicating a stable growth trajectory. The company's revenue is diversified across segments, with Architecture, Engineering, and Construction (AEC) leading at $970 million, followed by AutoCAD and AutoCAD LT at $474 million, Manufacturing at $367 million, and Media & Entertainment at $86 million, showing broad-based demand.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.9B
2026-04
Revenue YoY Growth
+18.4%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
91.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$2.7B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is ADSK Overvalued?
Given Autodesk's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 47.89x, while the forward PE is 17.84x, indicating that the market expects significant earnings growth in the coming year. This wide gap suggests that the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, likely driven by the company's subscription model and operational leverage. The forward PE of 17.84x is attractive relative to the trailing multiple, but it implies that earnings are expected to more than double, which may be optimistic.
PE
47.9x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 25x~97x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
30.2x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.90, which amplifies vulnerability to rising interest rates or cash flow disruptions. The current ratio of 0.85 indicates potential liquidity strain, though the company generates strong free cash flow ($2.73B TTM). The trailing PE of 47.9x leaves little margin for error; any earnings miss could trigger a sharp de-rating. Additionally, the PEG ratio of 22.5 suggests the market is pricing in aggressive growth, making the stock sensitive to any signs of deceleration.