Bunge Limited
BG
$122.41
-1.75%
Bunge Global SA is an agribusiness solutions company that connects farmers to consumers, delivering essential food, feed, and fuel worldwide through segments including Soybean Processing and Refining, Softseed Processing and Refining, Other Oilseeds Processing and Refining, Grain Merchandising and Milling, and Corporate and Other. The company generates maximum revenue from its Soybean Processing and Refining segment, which encompasses the purchase, storage, transportation, processing, distribution, refining, marketing, and sale of soybeans and related products, as well as biodiesel and fertilizer production and distribution. As one of the world's largest agribusiness and food companies with approximately 34,000 employees and operations spanning the United States, Switzerland, the Netherlands, and the rest of the world, Bunge occupies a critical node in global agricultural supply chains. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ambitious 2030 targets, including a $15 mid-cycle EPS goal announced in March 2026, which management frames as a signal of long-term confidence despite near-term profit headwinds, alongside questions about margin recovery in soybean processing and the integration of recent acquisitions.…
BG
Bunge Limited
$122.41
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy BG Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold, with a bias toward accumulating on weakness. The core thesis is that Bunge offers a compelling long-term value proposition supported by a consensus Buy rating (mean 1.56) and an average target price of $141.78 (15.8% upside), but near-term earnings and cash flow deterioration warrant caution until a clear margin recovery emerges. The stock's forward PE of 10.79x and P/B of 0.92x suggest it is priced for a cyclical trough, but the market is demanding evidence that the $12.13 forward EPS estimate is achievable.
Supporting evidence for the Hold rating includes: (1) the forward PE of 10.79x is well below the trailing PE of 17.96x and the sector's mid-teens multiple, implying a deep discount if earnings recover; (2) revenue growth of 87.76% YoY in Q1 2026 reflects the acquisition, but sequential revenue has stabilized around $22 billion, indicating the enlarged base is now fully consolidated; (3) profitability is weak, with net margin of 0.31% and ROE of 5.13%, but these are trough levels that could mean-revert; (4) free cash flow is negative at -$877 million in Q1 2026, a red flag for dividend sustainability, though the 3.12% yield remains attractive; and (5) the implied upside to the average analyst target is 15.8%, with a high target of $155.00 (26.6% upside) if the 2030 strategy gains traction. The P/B of 0.92x is near historical lows, suggesting limited downside from a book value perspective.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) a prolonged downturn in soybean processing margins, which would keep EPS well below the $12.13 consensus and pressure the dividend; (2) integration challenges from the recent acquisition, which could lead to cost overruns and synergy shortfalls; and (3) a deterioration in global agricultural demand or trade disruptions. The rating would upgrade to Buy if forward EPS estimates are revised upward and gross margin stabilizes above 5%, or if the stock pulls back to the $105-$110 range (near the July lows) while fundamentals remain intact. It would downgrade to Sell if free cash flow remains negative for multiple quarters, the dividend is cut, or revenue growth turns negative. Relative to its own history and peers, BG appears undervalued on a P/B and forward PE basis, but the discount is justified by current earnings weakness; the stock is fairly valued until margin recovery is confirmed.
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BG 12-Month Price Forecast
Bunge presents a classic cyclical value opportunity with significant uncertainty. The forward PE of 10.79x and P/B of 0.92x suggest the market is pricing in a severe earnings trough, but the company must deliver on its $12.13 EPS consensus to justify even the current price. The bull case hinges on margin recovery in soybean processing and successful acquisition integration, while the bear case is supported by negative free cash flow and elevated leverage. Analyst sentiment remains constructive with a Buy consensus and 15.8% average upside, but the wide target range of $116 to $155 reflects genuine disagreement about the pace of recovery. I would upgrade to bullish if Q2 2026 gross margin expands above 5% and operating cash flow turns positive, and downgrade to bearish if free cash flow remains negative for another quarter or the dividend is cut. Given the balanced risk/reward, a neutral stance with a slight tilt toward accumulation on dips is appropriate.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Bunge Limited's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $141.78 and implied upside of +15.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$141.78
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+15.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$116 - $155
Analyst target range
Nine analysts cover Bunge, with a consensus recommendation of "Buy" (recommendation mean of 1.56, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Strong Sell). The average target price is $141.78, which implies approximately 15.8% upside from the current price of $122.41. The consensus leans bullish, supported by recent institutional ratings: Barclays, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital, and UBS have all maintained Overweight, Outperform, or Buy ratings in 2026, with no downgrades observed. The estimated average EPS for the forward period is $12.13, with a range of $11.62 to $12.53, and estimated average revenue of $94.92 billion.
The target price range spans from a low of $116.00 to a high of $155.00, a spread of $39.00, or approximately 34% of the low target. The high target of $155.00 implies roughly 26.6% upside and likely assumes successful execution of the 2030 strategy, margin expansion in soybean processing, and multiple expansion as earnings recover toward the $15 mid-cycle EPS target. The low target of $116.00 implies about 5.2% downside from the current price and likely prices in continued margin compression, integration challenges, or a more cautious view on agricultural commodity spreads. The relatively wide spread signals moderate uncertainty among analysts, though the concentration of Buy/Overweight ratings and the absence of recent downgrades suggest stronger conviction on the upside. The short ratio of 4.81 indicates that short sellers are not aggressively positioned against the stock, which reduces the risk of a short squeeze but also suggests limited contrarian upside from that dynamic.
Bulls vs Bears: BG Investment Factors
The bull case rests on a compelling valuation disconnect: a forward PE of 10.79x, a P/B of 0.92x, and a consensus Buy rating with 15.8% upside to the average target of $141.78. The bear case is anchored in deteriorating fundamentals: Q1 2026 net margin of just 0.31%, negative free cash flow of -$877 million, and a debt-to-equity ratio near 1.0. Currently, the bear evidence on near-term profitability and cash flow is stronger and more immediate, while the bull case depends on a cyclical recovery that has yet to materialize in the numbers. The single most important tension is whether soybean processing margins can recover sufficiently to justify the market's implied 66% EPS expansion to $12.13, or whether the current earnings trough extends, forcing analysts to revise down their targets. If margins recover, the stock could re-rate toward $155; if they remain depressed, the downside to the 52-week low of $76.01 is substantial.
Bullish
- Analyst consensus Buy with 15.8% upside: Nine analysts cover BG with a consensus recommendation of Buy (mean 1.56) and an average target price of $141.78, implying 15.8% upside from the current $122.41. The high target of $155.00 implies 26.6% upside, and no downgrades have been observed in 2026, with Barclays, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital, and UBS all maintaining Overweight/Outperform/Buy ratings.
- Forward PE of 10.79x implies deep discount: The forward PE of 10.79x is well below the trailing PE of 17.96x and the broader Consumer Defensive sector's typical mid-teens multiple, implying the market expects approximately 66% EPS expansion to $12.13 over the next twelve months. If earnings recover as expected, the stock could re-rate upward toward historical averages.
- Strong relative momentum and defensive beta: BG has delivered a 1-year price change of +49.39% versus SPY's +16.22%, producing relative strength of +33.17 percentage points, and is up 32.14% YTD versus SPY's 12.08%. With a beta of 0.66, the stock is roughly 34% less volatile than the market, offering defensive characteristics alongside strong momentum.
- Attractive dividend yield with income support: BG offers a dividend yield of 3.12%, above the sector average, with a payout ratio of 56.25%. This provides a steady income stream for investors and supports total return even if capital appreciation stalls in the near term.
Bearish
- Severe margin compression and earnings collapse: Q1 2026 net income was just $68 million on $21.861 billion in revenue, yielding a razor-thin net margin of 0.31% and EPS of $0.35, down sharply from Q2 2025's EPS of $2.61. Gross margin compressed to 3.50% in Q1 2026 from 5.36% in Q4 2025, and operating margin fell to 1.07% from 2.68%, indicating significant deterioration in processing spreads and profitability.
- Negative free cash flow and weak cash generation: Q1 2026 free cash flow was -$877 million, driven by -$541 million in operating cash flow and -$336 million in capital expenditures, a sharp reversal from Q4 2025's positive $799 million FCF. Trailing twelve-month free cash flow is just $14 million, and the cash flow to debt ratio is -0.033, highlighting dependence on external financing and raising questions about dividend sustainability.
- Elevated leverage and constrained financial flexibility: The debt-to-equity ratio of 0.997 is near 1.0, and the current ratio of 1.61 provides only adequate short-term liquidity. The cash position fell to $847 million in Q1 2026 from $1.135 billion at year-end 2025, and with $551 million in debt repayment during the quarter, the company's financial flexibility is somewhat constrained.
- Negative 3-month and 6-month relative strength: Despite strong 1-year and YTD performance, BG's 3-month change of -3.74% and 6-month change of -1.86% both lag SPY's respective +3.04% and +15.40%, yielding negative relative strength of -6.78 and -17.26. This divergence signals a significant mid-year drawdown from the June high near $131.41 to the July low of $104.89, and the recovery remains incomplete.
BG Technical Analysis
Bunge shares are in a sustained uptrend over the trailing year, with a 1-year price change of +49.39% versus SPY's +16.22%, delivering relative strength of +33.17 percentage points. At the current price of $122.41, the stock sits at approximately 80.9% of its 52-week range (low of $76.01, high of $134.87), positioning it in the upper portion of its annual band but still about 9.2% below the high. This positioning suggests the stock retains positive momentum without being at an extreme overextension, though the proximity to the upper range warrants attention for potential resistance. Year-to-date, the stock is up 32.14% versus SPY's 12.08%, reinforcing the strong intermediate-term trend.
Short-term momentum has re-accelerated sharply, with a 1-month gain of 9.54% against SPY's -1.06%, producing relative strength of +10.60 percentage points. However, this conflicts with the 3-month change of -3.74% and 6-month change of -1.86%, both of which lag SPY's respective +3.04% and +15.40% over the same periods, yielding negative relative strength of -6.78 and -17.26. This divergence signals that the stock experienced a significant mid-year drawdown — visible in the price data from the June high near $131.41 to the July low of $104.89 — followed by a sharp recovery rally that has reclaimed much of the lost ground. The 1-month surge against a flat-to-negative market suggests renewed buying interest, possibly tied to the company's 2030 targets announcement and analyst reaffirmations, though the negative 3-month and 6-month relative strength readings indicate the recovery is still incomplete.
Key technical levels are defined by the 52-week low of $76.01 as major support and the 52-week high of $134.87 as primary resistance, with the current price of $122.41 roughly 61% above the low and 9.2% below the high. A breakout above $134.87 would signal a fresh leg higher and likely confirm the recovery trend, while a breakdown below the $104-$105 area (the July lows) would threaten the uptrend and potentially retest the $76 support zone. The stock's beta of 0.66 indicates it is roughly 34% less volatile than the broader market, which is characteristic of a defensive consumer staples name and implies lower position-sizing risk; however, the max drawdown of -20.18% over the period shows the stock is not immune to sharp corrections, and the short ratio of 4.81 suggests a moderate level of short interest that could fuel upside on positive catalysts.
Beta
0.66
0.66x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-20.2%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$76-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+49.4%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | BG Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.5% | -1.6% |
| 3m | -3.7% | +1.3% |
| 6m | -1.9% | +13.9% |
| 1y | +49.4% | +16.3% |
| ytd | +32.1% | +12.1% |
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BG Fundamental Analysis
Bunge's revenue trajectory shows dramatic acceleration on a year-over-year basis, with Q1 2026 revenue of $21.861 billion representing 87.76% growth versus the prior-year quarter's $11.643 billion. However, this comparison is distorted by the Q2 2025 share count change (from ~134 million to ~193 million shares outstanding), indicating a major acquisition closed mid-2025 that roughly doubled the revenue base. Sequentially, revenue has been relatively stable: $23.760 billion in Q4 2025, $22.153 billion in Q3 2025, and $21.861 billion in Q1 2026, suggesting the acquired business is now fully consolidated and top-line growth has normalized. The Milling Products segment contributed $761 million in revenue, a small fraction of the total, confirming that Soybean Processing and Refining remains the dominant revenue driver. The key question for investors is whether the enlarged revenue base can translate into sustainable earnings growth, particularly given management's $15 mid-cycle EPS target by 2030.
Profitability remains thin and under pressure, with Q1 2026 net income of just $68 million on $21.861 billion in revenue, yielding a net margin of only 0.31% and EPS of $0.35. Gross margin compressed to 3.50% in Q1 2026 from 5.36% in Q4 2025 and 3.69% in Q3 2025, while the trailing twelve-month net margin stands at 1.16% and gross margin at 4.85%. Operating income fell to $235 million in Q1 2026 from $636 million in Q4 2025, with operating margin declining to 1.07% from 2.68%. The company's ROE of 5.13% and ROA of 3.47% are modest, reflecting the capital-intensive, low-margin nature of agribusiness processing and merchandising. The compression in gross margin from 5.36% to 3.50% quarter-over-quarter is a notable deterioration that suggests either weaker processing spreads, higher input costs, or integration-related inefficiencies.
Bunge's balance sheet shows moderate leverage with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.997 and a current ratio of 1.61, indicating adequate short-term liquidity. However, free cash flow has been volatile and recently negative: Q1 2026 free cash flow was -$877 million, driven by -$541 million in operating cash flow and -$336 million in capital expenditures, a sharp reversal from Q4 2025's positive $799 million FCF. The trailing twelve-month free cash flow is just $14 million, and the cash flow to debt ratio is -0.033, highlighting the company's dependence on external financing and working capital management. The dividend payout ratio of 56.25% and dividend yield of 3.12% are attractive for income investors, but the sustainability of the dividend depends on restoring positive operating cash flow. The Q1 2026 cash position fell to $847 million from $1.135 billion at year-end 2025, and with $551 million in debt repayment during the quarter, the company's financial flexibility is somewhat constrained.
Quarterly Revenue
$21.9B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+87.8%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
3.5%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$14000000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is BG Overvalued?
Because Bunge reported positive trailing net income (EPS of $0.0555 on a trailing basis, with Q1 2026 net income of $68 million), the PE ratio is the appropriate primary valuation metric. The trailing PE stands at 17.96x, while the forward PE is significantly lower at 10.79x, implying the market expects substantial earnings growth — approximately 66% EPS expansion — over the next twelve months. This large gap between trailing and forward multiples reflects the market's confidence in a cyclical earnings recovery and the realization of synergies from the recent acquisition, consistent with analyst estimates of $12.13 in average EPS for the forward period.
Relative to the broader Consumer Defensive sector, Bunge's valuation appears mixed. The price-to-book ratio of 0.92x is below 1.0, suggesting the stock trades below its book value, which is unusual for a profitable company and may indicate the market is pricing in concerns about asset quality or returns. The price-to-sales ratio of 0.21x is extremely low, reflecting the high-revenue, low-margin nature of agribusiness, and the EV/EBITDA of 11.94x is moderate. The EV/Sales ratio of 0.454 is also low, consistent with the sector's commodity-processing peers. The dividend yield of 3.12% is above the sector average, providing income support. The PEG ratio of -0.46 is not meaningful due to negative earnings growth in the trailing period, but the forward PE of 10.79x versus the sector's typical mid-teens multiple suggests a discount that may be justified by Bunge's lower margins and cyclicality.
Historically, Bunge's valuation has been volatile. The trailing PE of 17.96x is above the levels seen in 2023-2024 (when PE ranged from 4.3x to 15.4x) but below the 90.9x recorded in Q1 2026 on a quarterly basis due to the earnings trough. The price-to-book ratio of 0.92x is near the low end of its historical range (which has ranged from 0.97x to 1.98x over the past three years), suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its own book value history. The forward PE of 10.79x is also below the historical average, implying that if earnings recover as expected, the stock could re-rate upward. However, the low PS ratio of 0.21x is near historical lows, reflecting the market's skepticism about margin recovery.
PE
18.0x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
High-End
5-Year PE Range 4x~24x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
11.9x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Bunge's financial and operational risks are significant and quantifiable. The company operates on razor-thin margins, with Q1 2026 net margin of just 0.31% and gross margin of 3.50%, leaving little buffer for adverse commodity price movements or processing spread compression. Free cash flow turned sharply negative at -$877 million in Q1 2026, and trailing twelve-month FCF is only $14 million, while the debt-to-equity ratio of 0.997 and cash flow to debt ratio of -0.033 indicate that the company is reliant on external financing to fund operations and dividends. The dividend payout ratio of 56.25% may become unsustainable if operating cash flow does not recover, and the cash position fell to $847 million from $1.135 billion at year-end 2025, further constraining flexibility. Additionally, the company's revenue is heavily concentrated in Soybean Processing and Refining, making it vulnerable to a single segment's cyclical downturn.
Market and competitive risks are equally pertinent. BG trades at a forward PE of 10.79x, which is a discount to the sector, but this discount may persist if margins remain structurally lower than peers due to the capital-intensive, low-margin nature of agribusiness. The stock's beta of 0.66 indicates lower volatility than the market, but the max drawdown of -20.18% over the period shows it is not immune to sharp corrections, as evidenced by the mid-year decline from $131.41 to $104.89. Competitive pressures in global grain trading and soybean processing, particularly from rivals like Archer-Daniels-Midland and Cargill, could limit pricing power and margin recovery. Regulatory risks, including trade policies and biofuel mandates, add uncertainty, while the recent acquisition integration poses execution risk that could distract management and strain resources.
In a worst-case scenario, a continued downturn in soybean processing margins, coupled with integration missteps and a global agricultural recession, could drive earnings well below analyst estimates. If forward EPS fails to reach the $12.13 consensus and instead stagnates near the trailing level, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $76.01, representing a decline of approximately 37.9% from the current price of $122.41. The analyst low target of $116.00 implies a more modest 5.2% downside, but in a severe scenario, the stock could fall to the $76-$90 range, a loss of 26% to 38%. This would be triggered by a combination of negative free cash flow persisting, a dividend cut, and analyst downgrades, which would likely compress the multiple further.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: BG generated negative free cash flow of -$877 million in Q1 2026, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.997 and a cash flow to debt ratio of -0.033, which could pressure the dividend (payout ratio 56.25%) if the trend continues. Second, operational risk from margin compression: gross margin fell to 3.50% in Q1 2026 from 5.36% in Q4 2025, and net margin is just 0.31%, leaving little buffer for adverse commodity price moves. Third, competitive and market risk: BG operates in a capital-intensive, low-margin industry with intense competition from ADM and Cargill, and its beta of 0.66 does not fully protect against sector-wide downturns, as shown by the -20.18% max drawdown. Fourth, integration risk from the recent acquisition that doubled the share count and revenue base, which could lead to cost overruns or synergy shortfalls. Ranked by severity, the cash flow and dividend risk is highest, followed by margin compression, integration execution, and competitive pressures.
Our 12-month forecast for BG includes three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) targets $130-$145, assuming gradual margin recovery and EPS reaching the $12.13 consensus, with the stock trading near the analyst average target of $141.78. The bull case (30% probability) targets $145-$155, driven by stronger-than-expected margin recovery, successful acquisition synergies, and analyst upgrades toward the high target of $155.00. The bear case (20% probability) targets $76-$105, if margins remain depressed, free cash flow stays negative, and the dividend is cut, pushing the stock toward the 52-week low of $76.01. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the key assumption being that soybean processing margins stabilize and improve modestly from Q1 2026 trough levels, allowing earnings to recover toward the consensus estimate.
BG appears undervalued on multiple metrics. The forward PE of 10.79x is significantly below the trailing PE of 17.96x and the broader Consumer Defensive sector's mid-teens multiple, implying the market expects a 66% EPS recovery to $12.13. The P/B ratio of 0.92x is below 1.0 and near the low end of its three-year range of 0.97x to 1.98x, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its book value. The PS ratio of 0.21x is also near historical lows, reflecting the high-revenue, low-margin nature of agribusiness. However, the discount is justified by current weak profitability—net margin of 0.31% and ROE of 5.13%—so the stock is only undervalued if earnings recover as analysts expect. If the recovery stalls, the low multiples could persist or compress further.
BG is a reasonable buy for value-oriented investors with a long-term horizon, but it carries above-average risk. The stock trades at a forward PE of 10.79x and a P/B of 0.92x, well below historical averages, and offers a 3.12% dividend yield. Analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $141.78, implying 15.8% upside. However, the company reported Q1 2026 net income of just $68 million on $21.861 billion in revenue, with negative free cash flow of -$877 million, so the near-term earnings trajectory is uncertain. The biggest downside risk is a retest of the 52-week low of $76.01, which would represent a 37.9% loss from the current price. For investors comfortable with cyclicality and a 2-3 year holding period, the risk/reward is favorable, but it is not a suitable short-term trade.
BG is better suited for long-term investment than short-term trading. The company is in a cyclical trough, with Q1 2026 EPS of $0.35 and negative free cash flow, so near-term earnings visibility is low and the stock could remain volatile. The beta of 0.66 indicates lower volatility than the market, but the max drawdown of -20.18% shows it can still experience sharp corrections. The 3.12% dividend yield and 56.25% payout ratio provide income support for patient investors, but the dividend's sustainability depends on cash flow recovery. A suggested minimum holding period is 2-3 years to allow for the agricultural cycle to turn and for management's $15 mid-cycle EPS target by 2030 to gain traction. Short-term traders may find opportunities around earnings announcements, but the risk/reward is less favorable given the wide analyst target range of $116 to $155.