EXEL

Exelixis

$48.70

+9.64%
May 6, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Exelixis Inc is a biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing novel therapies for cancer. Its primary commercial asset is cabozantinib, marketed as Cabometyx for kidney and liver cancer and as Cometriq for metastatic medullary thyroid cancer, and it also partners with Roche on the melanoma treatment Cotellic. The company is a commercial-stage oncology player whose identity is heavily tied to the lifecycle and expansion of its flagship cabozantinib franchise. The current investor narrative revolves around the company's ability to sustain growth from its core product while advancing its pipeline, with recent attention likely focused on clinical trial readouts, competitive dynamics in the tyrosine kinase inhibitor space, and the company's capital allocation strategy, including share repurchases evident in recent financials.

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EXEL 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $48.7
Average Target $48.7
High Target $56.004999999999995
Low Target $41.395

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Exelixis's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $63.31 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$63.31

11 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

11

covering this stock

Price Range

$39 - $63

Analyst target range

Buy
3 (27%)
Hold
5 (46%)
Sell
3 (27%)

Exelixis is covered by 11 analysts, indicating substantial institutional research interest. The consensus sentiment leans neutral to slightly bullish, with recent institutional ratings showing a mix of 'Hold', 'Equal Weight', and 'Buy' recommendations, with HC Wainwright maintaining a consistent 'Buy'. The average analyst revenue estimate for the period is $3.11 billion, with an average EPS estimate of $4.32, providing a basis for forward valuation. A specific consensus price target is not provided in the dataset, so the implied upside cannot be calculated; however, the range of EPS estimates from $3.92 to $4.59 illustrates the spread of expectations. The target price range, while not explicitly stated, would logically derive from applying various multiples to these EPS estimates, with the high target likely assuming successful pipeline development, market share gains for cabozantinib, and multiple expansion. The low target would factor in risks such as competitive pressure, pipeline setbacks, or slower-than-expected growth. The recent pattern of institutional ratings shows stability, with most firms reiterating existing ratings (e.g., RBC Capital and Stifel maintaining 'Sector Perform' and 'Hold', respectively) around financial releases, though Morgan Stanley did downgrade from 'Overweight' to 'Equal Weight' in January 2026, a notable shift towards caution.

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EXEL Technical Analysis

The stock is in a consolidation phase within a broader uptrend, trading at $43.68, which represents a 12.32% gain over the past year. This price positions it at approximately 58% of its 52-week range ($33.76 to $49.62), indicating it is situated in the middle of its annual band, suggesting a balance between momentum and valuation after its advance. The 6-month price change of 12.96% supports a positive intermediate-term trend, though recent momentum has softened. Short-term momentum shows divergence, with the stock down 0.82% over the past month, underperforming the SPY's 9.98% gain, as indicated by a -10.80 relative strength reading. This 1-month pullback against a positive 1-year trend suggests a period of consolidation or profit-taking, rather than a reversal of the primary trend. Key technical levels are clearly defined by the 52-week high of $49.62 as major resistance and the 52-week low of $33.76 as critical support. A breakout above $49.62 would signal a resumption of the bullish trend, while a breakdown below $33.76 would indicate a more severe bearish shift. The stock exhibits low market-relative volatility, with a beta of 0.418, meaning it is roughly 58% less volatile than the broader market, which is typical for a commercial-stage biotech with established revenue and reduces portfolio risk.

Beta

0.39

0.39x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-25.3%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$34-$50

Price range past year

Annual Return

+32.1%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodEXEL ReturnS&P 500
1m+10.7%+11.4%
3m+14.9%+8.3%
6m+19.3%+9.4%
1y+32.1%+31.3%
ytd+11.7%+7.6%

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EXEL Fundamental Analysis

Exelixis demonstrates steady revenue growth, with Q4 2025 revenue of $598.66 million, representing a 5.63% year-over-year increase. Sequentially, revenue has grown from $555.45 million in Q1 2025 to the Q4 level, indicating a stable, low-single-digit quarterly growth trajectory. The revenue segment data shows the business is overwhelmingly driven by Product revenue ($1.09 billion), with meaningful contributions from Collaboration ($106.91 million) and License ($122.59 million) segments, underscoring the commercial focus on Cabometyx. The company is solidly profitable, with Q4 2025 net income of $244.53 million and a robust net margin of 40.85%. Gross margins are exceptionally high at 95.58%, consistent with a biopharmaceutical business model, and operating margins are healthy at 39.29%. Profitability has improved year-over-year, as Q4 2024 net income was $139.86 million with a net margin of 24.68%, indicating significant margin expansion driven by operational leverage and cost management. The balance sheet is strong, featuring a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.08 and a high current ratio of 3.56, indicating ample liquidity. The company generates substantial cash flow, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $859.18 million and an ROE of 36.21%, reflecting efficient use of shareholder equity. The strong FCF supports the company's active capital return program, evidenced by significant stock repurchases in recent quarters, reducing share count and boosting per-share metrics.

Quarterly Revenue

$598663000.0B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.05%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.95%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$859176000.0B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Collaboration
License
Product
Product, Gross

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Valuation Analysis: Is EXEL Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability with positive net income, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 15.12x, while the forward PE is 11.04x, based on estimated EPS of $4.32. The forward PE being lower than the trailing multiple suggests analysts expect earnings growth, with the market pricing in a forward earnings increase. Compared to industry averages, Exelixis's valuation presents a mixed picture; its trailing PE of 15.12x is not directly comparable to a sector average without explicit data, but its Price-to-Sales ratio of 5.10x and EV/EBITDA of 12.50x provide additional context. The PEG ratio of 0.25, based on trailing metrics, suggests the stock is deeply undervalued relative to its growth rate if that growth is sustainable, though this metric can be volatile for biotech firms. Historically, the stock's own valuation has fluctuated; the current trailing PE of 15.12x sits below the Q4 2025 historical ratio of 12.10x but is above levels seen in 2023 and early 2024 when profitability was lower. Trading near the middle of its own historical PE band implies the market has priced in the recent margin expansion and stable growth, without excessive optimism or pessimism.

PE

15.1x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range -43x~1656x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

12.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple