Floor & Decor
FND
$54.26
-0.80%
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer in the hard surface flooring market, offering a wide range of tile, wood, laminate, and natural stone products, along with installation accessories, primarily in the United States. As a leading category-focused retailer, it differentiates itself through its warehouse-format stores, everyday low pricing, and appeal to both professional installers and DIY customers. The current investor narrative centers on the company's recovery from a challenging housing market, with recent quarterly results showing stabilizing revenue and improved profitability, while the stock remains under pressure due to macroeconomic headwinds and a high-beta profile. Attention is also focused on the company's ability to manage its debt load and generate free cash flow amid a slower home improvement cycle.…
FND
Floor & Decor
$54.26
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FND Today?
We rate FND a Hold. The stock is trading at $54.26, with an average analyst target of $58.59, implying 8% upside. The thesis is that the company is a quality retailer with a strong brand, but it is facing a cyclical downturn that has yet to bottom. The forward PE of 24.6x is reasonable if earnings recover, but the lack of revenue growth and high debt warrant caution.
Sign up to view all
FND 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI model assesses FND as neutral, given the balanced risk-reward. The stock is not cheap enough to be a clear value buy, nor expensive enough to be a short. The key is whether revenue growth can resume; if it does, the stock could re-rate higher, but if not, it may drift lower. The model would upgrade to bullish if revenue growth turns positive and margins expand, or downgrade to bearish if revenue declines accelerate.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Floor & Decor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $58.59 and implied upside of +8.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$58.59
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+8.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $75
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $38.00 to a high of $75.00, indicating a wide dispersion of expectations. The low target suggests that some analysts see significant downside risk, potentially due to continued housing market weakness or margin compression, while the high target implies a strong recovery scenario with multiple expansion. Recent institutional ratings have been largely unchanged, with no major upgrades or downgrades, suggesting that analysts are in a wait-and-see mode. The wide spread between the low and high targets highlights the high uncertainty surrounding the stock's future performance, which is typical for a cyclical retailer in a volatile macro environment.
Bulls vs Bears: FND Investment Factors
Floor & Decor presents a mixed picture: improving profitability and a stable revenue base are offset by persistent revenue declines and a high valuation. The bull case relies on a housing market recovery and margin expansion, while the bear case focuses on continued macro headwinds and leverage. Currently, the bearish evidence is slightly stronger given the lack of revenue growth and high debt, but the stock's low valuation relative to its own history and analyst upside potential suggest a balanced risk-reward. The key tension is whether the company can return to revenue growth, which would justify its forward PE and drive the stock higher.
Bullish
- Improving Profitability: Q1 2026 gross margin expanded to 44.0% from 43.8% a year ago, and operating margin improved to 4.5% from 5.5% (though still below prior year). Net income rose to $39.7 million from $48.9 million, but EPS of $0.37 beat estimates, showing cost control.
- Analyst Upside Potential: The average analyst target of $58.59 implies 8.0% upside from the current price of $54.26, while the high target of $75.00 suggests 38.2% upside. This indicates that analysts see value despite recent weakness.
- Stable Revenue Base: Revenue has remained relatively stable, with Q1 2026 revenue of $1,152.3 million, only a 0.7% decline YoY. The trailing twelve-month revenue is approximately $4.66 billion, providing a solid base for recovery.
- Strong Balance Sheet Liquidity: The current ratio stands at 1.33, indicating adequate short-term liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months is $105.5 million, positive and supportive of debt service and potential investments.
Bearish
- Persistent Revenue Decline: Revenue has declined for four consecutive quarters, with Q1 2026 down 0.7% YoY and Q4 2025 down 0.3%. The company has not returned to growth, indicating a prolonged downturn in the housing market.
- High Valuation Multiple: The trailing PE of 32.6x and forward PE of 24.6x are elevated relative to the broader market. The PEG ratio of 31.3 suggests that the stock is expensive even for its expected growth, leaving little room for error.
- High Debt Levels: Debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51 is high, indicating significant leverage. This increases financial risk, especially if revenue continues to decline and interest rates remain elevated.
- Weak Technical Momentum: The stock is down 32.9% over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500 by 53.4 percentage points. It remains 41.3% below its 52-week high, and the 1-month relative strength is -2.3%, showing continued selling pressure.
FND Technical Analysis
Floor & Decor's stock is in a clear downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -32.9%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +20.5% gain. The current price of $54.26 sits at approximately 58.7% of its 52-week range (between $42.64 low and $92.405 high), indicating that the stock is closer to its lows than its highs, reflecting persistent selling pressure. This positioning suggests that the market is pricing in continued weakness, though the stock has bounced off its lows, hinting at potential value accumulation.
Beta
1.57
1.57x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$92
Price range past year
Annual Return
-32.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FND Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +0.1% | +3.6% |
| 3m | +12.5% | +2.7% |
| 6m | -21.4% | +11.4% |
| 1y | -32.9% | +18.7% |
| ytd | -13.8% | +12.3% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
FND Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been relatively stable but slightly declining, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) showing revenue of $1,152.3 million, a year-over-year decline of -0.7%. Over the past four quarters, revenue has ranged from $1,129.7 million to $1,214.2 million, indicating a flat to slightly negative growth trajectory. The company's revenue segments show a diversified mix, with Tile being the largest at $275.4 million, followed by Installation Materials and Tools at $248.4 million, while Adjacent Categories contribute only $26.2 million, suggesting that core flooring products drive the business.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$105450000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is FND Overvalued?
Given that Floor & Decor is profitable, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 32.6x, while the forward PE is 24.6x, indicating that the market expects earnings growth. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests an anticipated improvement in earnings, which is consistent with the estimated EPS growth from $0.37 in Q1 2026 to a projected $2.66 for the full year. This forward multiple is lower than the trailing, implying that the market is pricing in a recovery in profitability.
PE
32.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 20x~69x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financially, Floor & Decor carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.51, which is high for a retailer and increases vulnerability to rising interest rates. The company's interest expense was $3.2 million in Q1 2026, manageable but growing. Free cash flow of $105.5 million TTM is positive, but it is thin relative to debt obligations. Revenue concentration in the cyclical housing market means that a prolonged downturn could erode margins and cash flow, as seen in the -0.7% YoY revenue decline in Q1 2026. The operating margin of 4.5% is thin, leaving little buffer for cost inflation or pricing pressure.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Financial risk from high debt (D/E 1.51) and thin margins (operating margin 4.5%), which could lead to losses if revenue declines further. 2) Market risk from high beta (1.57) and sensitivity to interest rates and housing market. 3) Competitive risk from larger home improvement chains and online retailers. 4) Company-specific risk of continued revenue decline, which has been -0.7% YoY. The most severe risk is a prolonged housing recession, which could push the stock to $38, a 30% downside.
The 12-month forecast is a base case of $55-$62 (50% probability), with a bull case of $65-$75 (25%) and a bear case of $38-$45 (25%). The base case assumes flat revenue and EPS of $2.66, leading to a price near the analyst average of $58.59. The bull case requires a housing recovery, while the bear case involves continued decline. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock trading in a range as the market waits for clearer signals on revenue growth.
FND is trading at a forward PE of 24.6x, which is above the market average but below its own historical average of around 30x. The PEG ratio of 31.3 suggests it is overvalued relative to its growth rate, but the market is pricing in a recovery in earnings. Compared to peers, the PS ratio of 1.45x is reasonable for a specialty retailer. Overall, the stock is fairly valued if earnings recover as expected, but it is not a bargain.
FND is a Hold for most investors. The stock offers 8% upside to the average analyst target of $58.59, but the downside risk to the low target of $38 is 30%. The forward PE of 24.6x is not cheap, and the company faces revenue declines. It could be a good buy for investors who believe the housing market will recover in the next 12-18 months and are willing to accept high volatility (beta 1.57). However, for risk-averse investors, waiting for a clearer bottom in revenue or a lower valuation would be prudent.
FND is more suitable for long-term investment (3-5 years) due to its cyclical nature and high volatility (beta 1.57). Short-term trading is risky given the stock's -32.9% 1-year decline and sensitivity to macro news. The company has no dividend, so returns depend on capital appreciation. For long-term investors, the potential for a housing recovery and margin expansion could provide significant upside, but they must be prepared for drawdowns. A minimum holding period of 3 years is recommended to ride out the cycle.