Floor & Decor
FND
$47.34
+1.00%
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer of hard surface flooring, offering tile, wood, laminate, and natural stone products along with installation accessories, operating primarily in the United States. As a leading category-focused retailer in the home improvement industry, it differentiates itself through a warehouse-style store format, everyday low pricing, and a broad product assortment catering to both professional installers and DIY customers. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a challenging housing market characterized by high interest rates and weak renovation demand, with recent stock performance reflecting concerns about revenue stagnation and margin pressure. Attention is also focused on the company's expansion strategy and its potential to benefit from any future recovery in the housing sector or interest rate cuts.…
FND
Floor & Decor
$47.34
FND 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Floor & Decor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $58.59 and implied upside of +23.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$58.59
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+23.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $75
Analyst target range
Floor & Decor is covered by 22 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'hold' and a mean recommendation score of 2.61 (where 1 is strong buy and 5 is sell). The average target price is $58.59, which implies an upside of approximately 16.6% from the current price of $50.23. The distribution includes a mix of hold and neutral ratings, with some buy ratings from firms like Guggenheim and Piper Sandler, but no strong buy consensus. The low target of $38.00 suggests that some analysts see significant downside risk, possibly due to continued housing market weakness, while the high target of $75.00 implies a scenario where the company benefits from a sharp recovery in renovation demand and margin expansion. The wide range between the low and high targets (a spread of $37) indicates high uncertainty about the company's future performance, reflecting the cyclical nature of the home improvement industry and the impact of interest rates on consumer spending.
FND Technical Analysis
Floor & Decor's stock is in a pronounced downtrend, with a 1-year price change of -39.3%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% gain over the same period. The current price of $50.23 sits near the lower end of its 52-week range, at approximately 54% of the range (calculated as (50.23-42.64)/(92.405-42.64)), indicating that the stock is closer to its 52-week low of $42.64 than its high of $92.405. This positioning suggests a market that has priced in substantial pessimism, but also leaves the stock vulnerable to further downside if fundamentals deteriorate. The stock's beta of 1.553 indicates it is 55% more volatile than the broader market, amplifying both downside and upside moves.
Beta
1.55
1.55x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$92
Price range past year
Annual Return
-47.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FND Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -20.2% | -1.1% |
| 3m | -11.2% | +3.0% |
| 6m | -16.9% | +15.4% |
| 1y | -47.6% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -24.8% | +12.1% |
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FND Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been stagnant to slightly declining, with the most recent quarter (Q1 FY2026, ending March 26, 2026) reporting $1.152 billion, a year-over-year decline of -0.73%. This follows a pattern of fluctuating growth: Q2 FY2025 saw revenue of $1.214 billion, Q3 FY2025 $1.180 billion, and Q4 FY2025 $1.130 billion, indicating a sequential decline from mid-2025. The company's revenue segments show a heavy reliance on tile ($275.4 million) and installation materials ($248.4 million), but no segment is providing meaningful growth to offset the overall softness. The lack of revenue growth is a key concern, as it suggests the company is not gaining market share in a weak demand environment, and the investment case hinges on a housing market recovery.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
-0.7%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
44.0%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$105450000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FND Overvalued?
Given that Floor & Decor is profitable, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 32.58x, while the forward PE is 22.79x, indicating that the market expects earnings to grow significantly over the next year. This forward discount suggests that analysts anticipate a recovery in profitability, likely driven by cost controls and a potential housing market rebound. The PEG ratio of 31.28x is extremely high, implying that the current earnings growth rate (as estimated) is very low relative to the PE, which could signal that the stock is overvalued if growth does not materialize as expected. Compared to the industry average (not provided), the stock's PE is difficult to benchmark, but the trailing PE is above the broader market average, suggesting a premium valuation that may not be justified given the stagnant revenue and thin margins.
PE
32.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 20x~69x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple