The Home Depot
HD
$343.30
+1.35%
Home Depot is the world's largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating 2,361 warehouse-format stores offering over 30,000 products in-store and 1 million products online across the US, Canada, and Mexico. As the dominant player in the home improvement industry, Home Depot leverages its scale, extensive product assortment, and professional contractor relationships to maintain a competitive moat. The current investor narrative centers on the impact of elevated interest rates and a sluggish housing market on demand, with recent news highlighting pressure from the Fed's steady rates and a 3.8% year-over-year revenue decline in the latest quarter. Additionally, the company's strategic acquisitions of SRS (2024) and GMS (2025) aim to bolster professional demand and building product sales, offering a potential growth catalyst amid a challenging macro environment.…
HD
The Home Depot
$343.30
Related headlines
HD 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Home Depot's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $446.29 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.
Average Target
$446.29
17 analysts
Implied Upside
+30.0%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
17
covering this stock
Price Range
$275 - $446
Analyst target range
Home Depot is covered by 17 analysts, with a consensus leaning bullish: the distribution includes multiple Buy/Overweight ratings (e.g., Telsey Advisory Group, Guggenheim, UBS, Morgan Stanley) and some Hold/Neutral ratings (BNP Paribas, Bernstein, RBC Capital). The average EPS estimate for the current fiscal year is $19.81, with a low of $19.31 and high of $20.56. Revenue estimates average $195.68 billion, implying a slight recovery from the trailing twelve months. The average target price is not explicitly provided, but based on the forward P/E of 21.33x and average EPS of $19.81, the implied target is approximately $422.50, representing 23% upside from the current price of $343.30. The consensus is moderately bullish, with most analysts maintaining positive ratings. The target range (based on EPS estimates) suggests a low of $412 (19.3121.33) and a high of $438 (20.5621.33), a spread of about 6%, indicating relatively high conviction. Recent ratings (Feb 2026) show no downgrades, with firms like Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, and UBS reiterating Overweight/Buy, signaling confidence in the company's long-term prospects despite near-term headwinds.
HD Technical Analysis
Home Depot is in a sustained downtrend over the past year, with a 1-year price change of -8.04% and the stock trading at 80.5% of its 52-week range (current price $343.30 vs. 52-week low of $289.10 and high of $426.75). The price sits well below the midpoint of the range, indicating bearish sentiment and potential value territory, though the downtrend suggests caution. The stock has declined 8.37% over the past 6 months and 0.73% year-to-date, reflecting persistent selling pressure. Short-term momentum shows a 1-month price change of +7.64%, diverging from the longer-term downtrend, which could signal a potential short-term bounce or mean reversion. The 3-month change of +1.77% indicates a deceleration in the pace of decline, but the stock remains below key moving averages. The 52-week low of $289.10 serves as critical support; a break below could accelerate losses, while the 52-week high of $426.75 is a major resistance level. A breakout above $426.75 would signal a trend reversal. Beta of 0.95 indicates volatility roughly in line with the market, meaning the stock is not amplifying broader market moves significantly.
Beta
0.95
0.95x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-29.7%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$289-$427
Price range past year
Annual Return
-8.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | HD Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +7.6% | +1.8% |
| 3m | +1.8% | +10.0% |
| 6m | -8.4% | +8.8% |
| 1y | -8.0% | +21.1% |
| ytd | -0.7% | +10.7% |
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HD Fundamental Analysis
Revenue has been declining, with the most recent quarter (Q4 FY2025, ended Feb 1, 2026) reporting $38.198 billion, a 3.79% year-over-year decrease. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of negative YoY growth, with prior quarters showing -3.8%, -3.9%, and -4.0% declines, indicating a persistent contraction. The revenue trajectory reflects headwinds from higher interest rates and reduced housing turnover, though the company's acquisitions (SRS, GMS) may provide future growth. Net income in Q4 was $2.571 billion, down from $2.997 billion in the year-ago quarter, with net margin of 6.73% versus 7.55% a year earlier. Gross margin improved slightly to 32.64% from 32.83%, but operating margin compressed to 10.08% from 11.32%, indicating cost pressures. The company remains profitable, but margins are under pressure from higher SG&A expenses and interest costs. The balance sheet shows a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.10, which is elevated due to significant leverage, and a current ratio of 1.06, indicating tight liquidity. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months was $12.646 billion, providing ample cash for dividends and debt service, but the high debt load (debt-to-equity >5) increases financial risk. ROE is very high at 110.5%, but this is inflated by high leverage; ROA of 12.5% is more indicative of operational efficiency.
Quarterly Revenue
$38.2B
2026-02
Revenue YoY Growth
-3.79%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
32.64%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.6B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is HD Overvalued?
Since net income is positive ($2.571 billion), the primary valuation metric is the P/E ratio. The trailing P/E is 26.50x, while the forward P/E is 21.33x, implying the market expects earnings growth over the next year. The gap between trailing and forward P/E suggests a 19.5% expected earnings increase, which is optimistic given recent revenue declines. Compared to the industry average (not provided, but typically home improvement retailers trade at 15-20x), Home Depot's trailing P/E of 26.5x appears at a premium, likely reflecting its market leadership and strong cash flow generation. The P/S ratio of 2.28x is below the 5-year average of ~2.5x, suggesting a discount on a sales basis. Historically, the trailing P/E has ranged from 15x to 36x over the past 5 years; the current 26.5x is near the middle of that range, indicating fair valuation relative to its own history. The PEG ratio is negative (-5.74) due to negative earnings growth, making it uninformative. Overall, the stock is not cheap on an earnings basis but offers a reasonable entry point for a high-quality cyclical business.
PE
26.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Mid-Range
5-Year PE Range 15x~37x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
18.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple

