HD

The Home Depot

$311.52

+0.27%
Jun 2, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
The Home Depot, Inc. is the world's largest home improvement specialty retailer, operating a vast network of warehouse-format stores across North America that sell building materials, home improvement products, lawn and garden items, and decor, while also providing installation services and tool rentals. As the dominant market leader in its industry, the company is distinguished by its massive scale, extensive product assortment, and strategic focus on expanding its professional contractor business through acquisitions like SRS and GMS. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's significant underperformance relative to the broader market, driven by cyclical pressures from a weakening housing market, rising mortgage rates, and a debate over whether the sell-off presents a long-term buying opportunity for a high-quality business or a justified response to deteriorating fundamentals.

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HD 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $311.52
Average Target $311.52
High Target $358.24799999999993
Low Target $264.792

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on The Home Depot's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $404.98 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$404.98

11 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

11

covering this stock

Price Range

$249 - $405

Analyst target range

Buy
3 (27%)
Hold
5 (46%)
Sell
3 (27%)

Analyst coverage is robust with 11 firms providing estimates, and the institutional ratings show a consensus leaning bullish, with recent actions including 'Outperform', 'Buy', and 'Overweight' from firms like Telsey, UBS, and Morgan Stanley, though balanced by 'Neutral' and 'Market Perform' ratings. The average revenue estimate for the coming period is $195.68 billion, with an average EPS estimate of $19.81, though a specific consensus price target is not provided in the data, limiting the calculation of implied upside. The target range is wide, with a low EPS estimate of $19.30 and a high of $20.55, reflecting uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of a housing recovery; the high target likely assumes successful execution on professional sales initiatives and a cyclical rebound, while the low target prices in prolonged housing weakness and further margin pressure.

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HD Technical Analysis

The stock is in a pronounced and sustained downtrend, having declined 13.89% over the past year, which starkly contrasts with the S&P 500's 28.21% gain, resulting in a severe relative strength deficit of -42.10%. Currently trading at $317.14, the price sits just 20.4% above its 52-week low of $289.1 and 25.7% below its 52-week high of $426.75, positioning it in the lower quartile of its annual range, which suggests the market is pricing in significant pessimism and potential value. Recent momentum remains negative and is accelerating the longer-term downtrend, with the stock down 16.70% over the past three months and 1.76% over the past month, indicating persistent selling pressure without signs of a meaningful reversal. The stock's beta of 0.999 indicates its volatility is in line with the broader market, yet its recent performance has been markedly worse, highlighting significant idiosyncratic or sector-specific headwinds. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $289.1, while resistance is at the recent high near $391.05; a decisive breakdown below support could trigger another leg down, whereas a recovery above the $350-$360 zone would be needed to signal a potential trend change.

Beta

1.00

1.00x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-29.7%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$289-$427

Price range past year

Annual Return

-15.3%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodHD ReturnS&P 500
1m-3.8%+5.4%
3m-15.6%+10.9%
6m-11.3%+11.0%
1y-15.3%+28.1%
ytd-9.9%+11.4%

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HD Fundamental Analysis

Revenue growth has turned negative, reflecting clear cyclical pressure, with the most recent quarterly revenue of $38.20 billion representing a 3.79% year-over-year decline, and a sequential downtrend from $45.28 billion in Q2 2025 to the current level. The company remains profitable but is experiencing margin compression, with net income of $2.57 billion in the latest quarter and a gross margin of 32.64%, down from 33.41% in the year-ago quarter; operating income of $3.85 billion translates to an operating margin of 10.08%, which has contracted from prior quarters as sales have softened. The balance sheet is leveraged but cash generation remains robust, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 5.10 indicating significant financial leverage, yet the company generated substantial free cash flow of $12.65 billion over the trailing twelve months and an operating cash flow of $3.35 billion in the latest quarter, providing ample liquidity to fund operations, dividends, and navigate the downturn.

Quarterly Revenue

$38.2B

2026-02

Revenue YoY Growth

-0.03%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.32%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$12.6B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Other Segment

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Valuation Analysis: Is HD Overvalued?

Given the company's consistent profitability, the primary valuation metric is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE is 26.52x, while the forward PE is notably lower at 19.69x, indicating the market expects a significant earnings recovery in the coming year. Compared to sector averages, Home Depot's trailing PE of 26.52x is at a premium to the typical consumer cyclical retailer, which often trades in the low-20s, a premium that may be justified by its market-leading position and strong cash flows but is currently being tested by the growth downturn. Historically, the current trailing PE of 26.52x is below the stock's own extreme historical highs seen in recent years (e.g., over 30x in 2025), suggesting some multiple compression has already occurred, but it remains above the lows seen during deeper recessions, indicating the valuation may not yet be at a deep cyclical trough.

PE

26.5x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Mid-Range

5-Year PE Range 15x~37x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

18.1x

Enterprise Value Multiple