Floor & Decor
FND
$45.82
-2.43%
Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. is a specialty retailer operating in the hard surface flooring market, offering tile, wood, laminate, natural stone, and related installation accessories through a warehouse-format store base and e-commerce channel, primarily across the United States. The company is best characterized as a category-killer and share-gainer in a fragmented home-improvement niche, distinguished by its large-format, in-stock assortment and everyday-low-price model that appeals to professional installers, commercial buyers, and DIY customers alike. The current investor narrative is dominated by the tension between the company's long-term unit-growth story and a deeply challenged near-term demand environment: the stock has fallen sharply over the past year as housing turnover and big-ticket remodeling activity remain depressed, while management continues to invest heavily in new-store openings and infrastructure. Recent headlines have focused on macro rate sensitivity, with the stock appearing in coverage of rate-sensitive names rallying on Fed rate-cut hopes following geopolitical de-escalation, underscoring how heavily the bull case now rests on a housing and remodeling recovery rather than near-term earnings momentum.…
FND
Floor & Decor
$45.82
Investment Opinion: Should I buy FND Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Hold. The core thesis is that FND offers meaningful optionality on a housing-cycle recovery at a historically depressed valuation, but the near-term fundamental deterioration — 2.97% revenue growth, a 4.45% TTM net margin, and negative relative strength in every window — does not yet justify an outright Buy. The 22-analyst consensus rating of "hold" with a recommendation mean of 2.61 and an average target price of $58.36 (+28.3% upside) anchors this view: analysts see value at these levels but are unwilling to commit to a bullish call until demand inflects.
Supporting evidence for the Hold rating is mixed but leans toward patience. On valuation, the PS ratio of 1.45x and EV/Sales of 1.40x are inexpensive for a national category-killer, and the forward PE of 20.64x is arguably reasonable if earnings normalize toward the consensus EPS estimate of $2.65. However, the trailing PE of 32.58x, PEG ratio of 31.28, and EV/EBITDA of 19.62x are not obviously cheap versus home-improvement peers, and the 4.45% net margin is below what the market typically rewards with premium multiples. Free cash flow of $211.4 million on a TTM basis is positive but uneven, and capital expenditure of $73.24 million in Q2 2026 consumed the majority of operating cash flow, leaving limited room for error. The implied upside to the $58.36 consensus target is meaningful, but the 97% spread between the $38.00 low and $75.00 high targets signals that the consensus is a directional signal rather than a precise forecast.
The biggest risks that could invalidate this thesis are: (1) a continued housing downturn that keeps comparable-store sales negative and pushes net margins below 3%, (2) further multiple compression if the market loses patience with the store-expansion program, and (3) balance-sheet stress given debt-to-equity of 1.507 and a quick ratio of 0.454. This Hold would upgrade to Buy if the stock reclaims the mid-$50s on improving comparable-store sales and gross margins hold above 48%, or downgrade to Sell if revenue growth turns negative or the stock breaks below the $42.64 52-week low. Relative to its own history, FND is undervalued — the PS ratio of 1.45x is near the bottom of its historical band — but relative to peers and current fundamentals, it is fairly valued at best.
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FND 12-Month Price Forecast
FND presents a classic deep-value-versus-falling-knife dilemma. The bull case rests on a historically depressed PS ratio of 1.45x, a 28.3% upside to the $58.36 consensus target, and the optionality of a housing-cycle recovery that could unlock significant multiple expansion. The bear case rests on 2.97% revenue growth, a 4.45% TTM net margin, debt-to-equity of 1.507, and negative relative strength in every measured window, all of which suggest the fundamental deterioration may not be over. With a beta of 1.553 and a 97% spread between analyst targets, this is a high-volatility, macro-dependent bet that is best suited for patient investors with a multi-year horizon and a tolerance for drawdowns. I would upgrade to bullish if comparable-store sales inflect positive and gross margins hold above 48% for two consecutive quarters, and downgrade to bearish if revenue growth turns negative or the stock breaks below the $42.64 52-week low.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Floor & Decor's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $58.36 and implied upside of +27.4% versus the current price.
Average Target
$58.36
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+27.4%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$38 - $75
Analyst target range
Coverage is robust with 22 analysts, and the consensus recommendation is "hold" with a recommendation mean of 2.61 (where 1 = Strong Buy and 5 = Strong Sell), indicating a neutral-to-cautiously-constructive stance. The average target price is $58.36, which implies approximately +28.3% upside from the current price of $45.49 — a meaningful gap that suggests analysts see value at these levels even as they refrain from outright bullish calls. The consensus leans neutral rather than bullish, consistent with the recent institutional ratings flow, which shows a steady stream of reiterations (Evercore ISI "In Line," Morgan Stanley "Equal Weight," Wells Fargo "Equal Weight," UBS "Neutral") punctuated by a few constructive outliers (Truist "Buy," Piper Sandler "Overweight," Telsey "Outperform").\n\nThe target range is wide, spanning from a low of $38.00 to a high of $75.00 — a 97% spread that signals significant disagreement about the company's trajectory. The high target of $75.00 implies roughly +64.9% upside and likely assumes a housing-cycle recovery, accelerating comparable-store sales, margin expansion back toward historical norms, and multiple re-rating toward the stock's former premium; the low target of $38.00 implies -16.5% downside and prices in continued demand weakness, margin compression, and possibly further multiple contraction. Notably, no analyst has issued a downgrade in the visible ratings history — the actions are all reiterations — which suggests the bearish case is already well understood and priced, but also that there is little fresh positive catalyst driving upgrades. The wide dispersion, combined with the high short ratio of 5.66 days, means the stock is likely to remain volatile, and the consensus target should be treated as a directional signal rather than a precise forecast given the macro-dependent nature of the recovery thesis.
Bulls vs Bears: FND Investment Factors
The bear case currently holds stronger evidence: revenue growth has decelerated to 2.97%, the stock is down 38.26% over the past year with negative relative strength in every window, and the trailing PE of 32.58x sits atop a depressed 4.45% net margin. The bull case rests on valuation mean-reversion — a PS ratio of 1.45x near historic troughs and a 28.3% upside to the $58.36 consensus target — but these are contingent on a housing and remodeling recovery that has not yet materialized. The single most important tension is whether the housing cycle turns before the company's margin and growth deterioration becomes structural; if housing turnover recovers, the depressed multiple and high short interest could produce a violent re-rating, but if demand stays weak through 2027, the stock risks breaking below its $42.64 52-week low toward the $38.00 analyst bear target. With a beta of 1.553 and a 97% spread between analyst targets, this is a high-conviction macro bet dressed as a value play.
Bullish
- Analyst targets imply 28% upside: The 22-analyst consensus average target price is $58.36, representing approximately +28.3% upside from the current $45.49 price. The high target of $75.00 implies +64.9% upside, and no analyst has issued a downgrade in the visible ratings history, suggesting the bearish case is already well understood and priced.
- Q2 gross margin expanded to 48.24%: Q2 2026 gross margin of 48.24% improved both sequentially from Q1 2026's 44.04% and year-over-year from Q2 2025's 43.87%. This 420 basis point sequential expansion, paired with a 9.92% operating margin versus Q1's 4.55%, demonstrates meaningful operating leverage when demand cooperates.
- PS ratio near historic trough: The current PS ratio of 1.45x is dramatically below the 11.59x recorded in Q3 2024 and 9.79x in Q4 2024, sitting near the bottom of the stock's historical valuation band. For a national category-killer with a long unit-growth runway, this multiple embeds a deeply pessimistic demand outlook.
- Positive free cash flow and store expansion: TTM free cash flow is $211.4 million, with Q2 2026 generating $95.96 million, even as capital expenditure ran at $73.24 million in the quarter. The company continues funding new-store openings from internally generated cash, preserving the long-term unit-growth story despite the soft demand environment.
Bearish
- Revenue growth decelerated to 2.97% YoY: Q2 2026 revenue of $1.250 billion grew just 2.97% year-over-year, and Q1 2026 revenue of $1.152 billion was actually below Q1 2025's $1.161 billion. Growth is being carried by new-store openings rather than comparable-store productivity, a structurally lower-quality growth profile.
- Trailing PE of 32.58x on depressed earnings: The trailing PE of 32.58x sits atop a TTM net margin of just 4.45% and operating margin of 5.77%, both well below the 6-8% net margins posted in 2022-2023. The PEG ratio of 31.28 signals the market is paying a steep price relative to the company's actual growth rate.
- Severe relative underperformance: FND is down 38.26% over the past year and 27.76% year-to-date, versus the S&P 500's +15.01% and +12.86% respectively. Relative strength is negative in every window — -5.72% over 1 month, -26.29% over 3 months, -53.27% over 1 year — meaning the stock is falling faster than the market in every measured period.
- Leverage and weak liquidity ratios: Debt-to-equity stands at 1.507 with a quick ratio of just 0.454, indicating heavy reliance on $756.7 million of inventory to meet near-term obligations. The company repurchased $65.7 million of stock in Q2 2026 while carrying significant debt, raising questions about capital allocation priorities.
FND Technical Analysis
FND is in a sustained downtrend, with the shares down 38.26% over the past year and 27.76% year-to-date, a stark underperformance versus the S&P 500's +15.01% 1-year and +12.86% YTD returns. At the current price of $45.49, the stock sits at roughly 8.1% above its 52-week low of $42.64 and about 41.3% below its 52-week high of $77.46, placing it in the lower quartile of its annual range — a positioning that reflects persistent distribution rather than a basing pattern, and one that historically signals either deep value or an ongoing falling-knife dynamic. The maximum drawdown of -51.9% confirms the severity of the de-rating, and until the stock can reclaim even the mid-point of its range, the path of least resistance remains lower.\n\nShort-term momentum has deteriorated further, with the 1-month change of -5.13% and 3-month change of -22.95% both negative and materially worse than the 1-year trend would imply on a sequential basis, indicating deceleration rather than stabilization. Relative strength is uniformly weak across every window: -5.72% over 1 month, -26.29% over 3 months, -21.52% over 6 months, and -53.27% over 1 year versus SPY, meaning the stock is not merely falling but falling faster than the market in every measured period. The 6-month change of -4.17% versus the 3-month change of -22.95% reveals that most of the damage occurred in the most recent quarter, a classic acceleration-of-selling pattern that often precedes capitulation but can also persist until a fundamental catalyst emerges.\n\nKey technical levels are well defined: support rests at the 52-week low of $42.64, roughly 6.3% below the current $45.49 price, while resistance is anchored at the 52-week high of $77.46, some 70.3% above current levels — an unusually wide band that speaks to the stock's violent re-rating. A breakdown below $42.64 would likely trigger momentum-driven selling and open the door to new multi-year lows, whereas a breakout above even intermediate resistance in the mid-$50s would be the first evidence of trend repair. With a beta of 1.553, FND is approximately 55% more volatile than the market, meaning position sizing should be materially smaller than a market-weight allocation, and the short ratio of 5.66 days indicates elevated bearish positioning that could fuel sharp squeezes on any positive catalyst.
Beta
1.60
1.60x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-51.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$43-$77
Price range past year
Annual Return
-34.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | FND Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | -8.8% | +0.9% |
| 3m | -17.6% | +3.4% |
| 6m | -11.3% | +14.4% |
| 1y | -34.9% | +16.2% |
| ytd | -27.2% | +14.0% |
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FND Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth has decelerated to a crawl, with the most recent quarter (Q2 2026, ended June 25, 2026) delivering $1.250 billion in revenue, up just 2.97% year-over-year from $1.214 billion in Q2 2025. The multi-quarter trend shows a clear slowdown: Q1 2026 revenue of $1.152 billion was actually below Q1 2025's $1.161 billion, and Q4 2025's $1.130 billion was only modestly above Q4 2024's $1.107 billion, indicating that growth has compressed to low-single digits or worse across recent periods. Within the segment mix, installation materials and tools ($267.2 million) and tile ($293.1 million) are the largest contributors, while adjacent categories ($27.0 million) and natural stone ($53.7 million) remain small; the absence of any high-growth segment suggests the top line is being carried by new-store openings rather than comparable-store productivity, a structurally lower-quality growth profile.\n\nProfitability is positive but thin and volatile: Q2 2026 net income was $95.87 million on a 7.67% net margin, with gross margin of 48.24% — a notable sequential improvement from Q1 2026's 44.04% gross margin and 3.45% net margin, and above the 43.87% gross margin recorded in Q2 2025. However, the trailing figures tell a more sobering story: the TTM net margin is just 4.45% and the operating margin is 5.77%, both well below the 6-8% net margins the company posted in 2022-2023, reflecting SG&A deleverage as the company continues to invest in stores and infrastructure against a soft demand backdrop. The Q2 2026 operating income of $123.98 million (9.92% operating margin) was a sharp rebound from Q1's $52.40 million (4.55% margin), but the volatility between quarters — driven partly by gross-margin timing and expense recognition — makes it difficult to argue margins are on a durable upward trajectory.\n\nThe balance sheet carries meaningful leverage and the cash flow picture is mixed: debt-to-equity stands at 1.507, with a current ratio of 1.327 and a quick ratio of just 0.454, indicating heavy reliance on inventory ($756.7 million in Q2 2026) to meet near-term obligations. Free cash flow on a TTM basis is $211.4 million, but quarterly FCF has been uneven — $95.96 million in Q2 2026, $45.81 million in Q1 2026, and $45.14 million in Q4 2025 — while capital expenditure remains elevated at $73.24 million in Q2 2026 alone, consuming the majority of operating cash flow of $169.2 million. ROE of 8.66% and ROA of 2.74% are modest for a retailer, and with the company repurchasing $65.7 million of stock in Q2 2026 while carrying significant debt, the capital allocation mix warrants scrutiny; the company is generating enough cash to fund operations but depends on continued access to capital markets and consistent store-level returns to justify its expansion program.
Quarterly Revenue
$1.3B
2026-06
Revenue YoY Growth
+3.0%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
48.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$211397000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is FND Overvalued?
Because FND is profitable — trailing net income is positive at roughly $232 million on a TTM basis — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The trailing PE stands at 32.58x versus a forward PE of 20.64x, a 36.7% compression that implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth (consensus EPS of $2.65 versus trailing EPS of $0.03 on a quarterly basis, or roughly $2.15 annualized), though the gap also reflects how depressed current earnings are relative to normalized levels. The PEG ratio of 31.28 is extraordinarily high and signals that the market is paying a steep price relative to the company's growth rate, a classic characteristic of a stock that has fallen but whose earnings have fallen faster.\n\nOn a peer-relative basis, FND's valuation is mixed: the PS ratio of 1.45x and EV/Sales of 1.40x look inexpensive for a specialty retailer with a national growth story, but the EV/EBITDA of 19.62x and P/B of 2.82x are not obviously cheap versus home-improvement peers, where mature operators like Home Depot and Lowe's typically trade at lower EV/EBITDA multiples. The gross margin of 43.64% and net margin of 4.45% are below what the market typically rewards with premium multiples, suggesting the current valuation embeds a recovery that has not yet materialized; the forward PE of 20.64x is arguably reasonable if earnings normalize, but the trailing PE of 32.58x reflects a company whose profitability is currently depressed.\n\nHistorically, FND's valuation has compressed dramatically: the PS ratio has fallen from 11.59x in Q3 2024 and 9.79x in Q4 2024 to 5.03x in Q2 2026 and 1.45x on the current data, while the PE ratio has ranged from 16.38x (Q2 2026) to 81.35x (Q4 2023). The current PS of 1.45x is near the bottom of the stock's historical band, which could signal a value opportunity if the business stabilizes — but the collapse in the multiple also reflects genuine fundamental deterioration in growth and margins, and the market is clearly unwilling to pay the premium multiples it once awarded. Until revenue growth reaccelerates and margins expand durably, the stock is likely to remain range-bound at these depressed multiples.
PE
32.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 16x~69x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.6x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks are substantial. Revenue growth of just 2.97% year-over-year in Q2 2026, with Q1 2026 revenue actually declining versus the prior year, means the top line is being carried by new-store openings rather than comparable-store productivity — a lower-quality growth profile that requires continuous capital deployment to sustain. The balance sheet carries debt-to-equity of 1.507 and a quick ratio of just 0.454, indicating heavy reliance on $756.7 million of inventory to meet near-term obligations, while capital expenditure of $73.24 million in Q2 2026 consumed the majority of $169.2 million in operating cash flow. Margins are thin and volatile: the TTM net margin of 4.45% and operating margin of 5.77% are well below the 6-8% net margins of 2022-2023, and the swing from Q1 2026's 3.45% net margin to Q2's 7.67% shows how quickly profitability can deteriorate when gross-margin timing or expense recognition works against the company.
Market and competitive risks compound the financial picture. At a trailing PE of 32.58x and EV/EBITDA of 19.62x, FND trades at a premium to mature home-improvement operators like Home Depot and Lowe's on EBITDA multiples, despite a 4.45% net margin that is below what the market typically rewards with premium valuations. The beta of 1.553 means the stock is approximately 55% more volatile than the market, amplifying any macro-driven selloff; the recent news flow around Fed rate-cut hopes following geopolitical de-escalation underscores how heavily the bull case now rests on interest-rate and housing-cycle dynamics rather than company-specific execution. The 97% spread between the $38.00 low and $75.00 high analyst targets signals profound disagreement about the trajectory, and with a short ratio of 5.66 days, positioning is crowded enough that any negative surprise could trigger outsized selling.
The worst-case scenario would unfold as follows: housing turnover remains depressed through 2027, comparable-store sales stay negative, and the company's heavy investment in new stores and infrastructure produces continued SG&A deleverage, pushing net margins below 3%. In that environment, the market would likely apply a lower multiple to already-depressed earnings, driving the stock toward its 52-week low of $42.64 (a -6.3% move from the current $45.49) and potentially toward the analyst bear-case target of $38.00 (a -16.5% decline). A breakdown below $42.64 would likely trigger momentum-driven selling and open the door to new multi-year lows, and given the maximum drawdown of -51.9% already experienced, a further -35% to -40% from current levels toward the mid-$20s is not implausible if the housing recovery fails to materialize and the company is forced to slow its expansion program.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: debt-to-equity of 1.507 and a quick ratio of just 0.454 mean the company relies heavily on $756.7 million of inventory to meet near-term obligations, leaving limited cushion if demand deteriorates further. The second risk is operational: revenue growth of just 2.97% year-over-year, with Q1 2026 revenue actually declining versus the prior year, means the top line is being carried by new-store openings rather than comparable-store productivity — a lower-quality growth profile that requires continuous capital deployment. The third risk is valuation compression: at a trailing PE of 32.58x and EV/EBITDA of 19.62x, FND trades at a premium to mature peers despite a 4.45% net margin, and any disappointment could trigger multiple contraction toward the $38.00 analyst bear target. The fourth risk is macro: with a beta of 1.553, the stock is 55% more volatile than the market, and the bull case rests heavily on Fed rate cuts and a housing recovery that may not materialize on the expected timeline.
The 12-month forecast is divided into three scenarios. The base case (50% probability) targets $52-$62, assuming revenue growth stays in the low-single digits and margins stabilize in the 4-6% range, with the analyst average target of $58.36 acting as a gravitational pull. The bull case (25% probability) targets $65-$75, contingent on Fed rate cuts unlocking housing turnover, comparable-store sales inflecting positive, and gross margins sustaining above 48%, which would drive a re-rating toward the analyst high target of $75.00. The bear case (25% probability) targets $35-$43, assuming the housing downturn persists through 2027, comparable-store sales stay negative, and net margins fall below 3%, driving the stock toward the 52-week low of $42.64 and potentially the analyst bear target of $38.00. The base case is most likely, with the key assumption being that no decisive demand inflection occurs but the company avoids a fundamental collapse.
FND's valuation is mixed depending on the metric used. On a price-to-sales basis, the current 1.45x is dramatically below the 11.59x recorded in Q3 2024 and 9.79x in Q4 2024, sitting near the bottom of the stock's historical band — a level that suggests deep undervaluation if the business stabilizes. However, the trailing PE of 32.58x and EV/EBITDA of 19.62x are not obviously cheap versus mature home-improvement peers like Home Depot and Lowe's, especially given FND's 4.45% TTM net margin. The forward PE of 20.64x is arguably reasonable if earnings normalize toward the consensus EPS estimate of $2.65, but the PEG ratio of 31.28 signals the market is paying a steep price relative to the company's actual growth rate. The market appears to be pricing in a recovery that has not yet materialized — the stock is fairly valued at best on current fundamentals, but undervalued relative to its own history if the housing cycle turns.
From a risk/reward perspective, FND is a high-risk, high-reward proposition that is not suitable for all investors. The stock trades at $45.49, with a consensus target of $58.36 implying +28.3% upside, but the 97% spread between the $38.00 low and $75.00 high targets signals profound disagreement about the trajectory. The biggest downside risk is a continued housing downturn that pushes the stock toward its 52-week low of $42.64 (-6.3%) or the analyst bear target of $38.00 (-16.5%), and given the maximum drawdown of -51.9% already experienced, a further -35% to -40% decline is not implausible if demand fails to recover. For patient investors with a multi-year horizon and a tolerance for volatility (beta of 1.553), the depressed PS ratio of 1.45x and the optionality of a housing recovery make it a reasonable speculative buy in small size. For short-term traders or risk-averse investors, the negative relative strength in every window and the 2.97% revenue growth make it a stock to avoid until a clear demand inflection emerges.
FND is best suited for long-term investment with a minimum holding period of 2-3 years, not short-term trading. The company is in a challenged growth phase — revenue growth of 2.97% and a 4.45% TTM net margin — and the bull case depends on a housing-cycle recovery that is unlikely to materialize within a single quarter. The beta of 1.553 means the stock is 55% more volatile than the market, making it unsuitable for investors who cannot tolerate significant drawdowns, and the absence of a dividend (payout ratio of 0) means there is no income component to cushion the wait. Earnings visibility is low, with quarterly net margins swinging from 3.45% in Q1 2026 to 7.67% in Q2 2026, which makes short-term trading particularly risky. For patient investors with a multi-year horizon, the depressed PS ratio of 1.45x and the optionality of a housing recovery offer a reasonable risk/reward, but position sizing should be materially smaller than a market-weight allocation given the volatility.