LOW

Lowe's

$238.79

+2.27%
Apr 30, 2026
Bobby Quantitative Model
Lowe's Companies Inc. is the second-largest home improvement retailer globally, operating over 1,750 stores in the U.S. following the divestiture of its Canadian business. The company's core business involves selling products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, and remodeling, with a customer base split between retail do-it-yourself (DIY) shoppers and professional contractors. As a dominant market leader, Lowe's distinct competitive identity is built on its vast physical footprint and a strategic shift to grow its professional segment, recently enhanced by the acquisition of FBM. The current investor narrative is dominated by the stock's sensitivity to housing market dynamics, as recent headlines highlight a sharp, unexpected rise in mortgage rates derailing the housing recovery and pressuring related stocks, creating a debate around whether the sell-off presents a buying opportunity for a fundamentally strong company positioned for a future thaw.

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LOW 12-Month Price Forecast

Historical Price
Current Price $238.79
Average Target $238.79
High Target $274.6085
Low Target $202.9715

Wall Street consensus

Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Lowe's's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $310.43 and implied upside of +30.0% versus the current price.

Average Target

$310.43

7 analysts

Implied Upside

+30.0%

vs. current price

Analyst Count

7

covering this stock

Price Range

$191 - $310

Analyst target range

Buy
2 (29%)
Hold
3 (43%)
Sell
2 (29%)

Analyst coverage for Lowe's appears limited in the provided dataset, with only 7 analysts cited for earnings estimates, and no explicit consensus recommendation, average target price, or target range is provided in the 'Analyst data' or 'Institutional ratings' sections. The institutional ratings list from late February 2026 shows a pattern of reiterated ratings from ten major firms, with actions including 'Buy', 'Overweight', and 'Outperform' from Mizuho, UBS, Truist, Piper Sandler, Bernstein, Wells Fargo, and Telsey, alongside 'Neutral', 'Hold', and 'In Line' ratings from DA Davidson, TD Cowen, and Evercore ISI. This distribution leans bullish, but the absence of quantified price targets prevents calculation of implied upside or a defined target range. The recent pattern of reiterated ratings (no upgrades or downgrades) in late February suggests analysts are maintaining their stances post-earnings, likely awaiting clearer signs of a housing market inflection. The lack of readily available consensus price target data in this dataset implies that while institutional coverage exists, the investment case may be highly contingent on macroeconomic factors like interest rates, leading to a wide dispersion of views and high uncertainty, which is typical for cyclically-sensitive names during turning points.

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LOW Technical Analysis

The prevailing price trend for Lowe's is a volatile downtrend from its recent highs, characterized by a significant correction. The stock's 1-year price change of 10.09% is positive but masks a sharp reversal, as the current price of $244.45 sits at approximately 41% of its 52-week range ($210.33 to $293.06), indicating it is trading much closer to its annual low than its high. This positioning suggests the stock is in a deep correction phase, having fallen significantly from its peak, which may represent a value opportunity if the fundamentals hold, but also signals persistent selling pressure and negative momentum. Recent short-term momentum is weak and contrasts with the longer-term positive 1-year return. The 1-month price change is a modest +3.50%, while the 3-month change is a significant -11.66%, indicating recent attempts at stabilization have been overwhelmed by a pronounced three-month sell-off. This divergence from the 1-year trend signals a potential trend reversal or a severe mean reversion following earlier strength, exacerbated by the stock's negative relative strength of -15.25% versus the S&P 500 over the same 3-month period. Key technical support is clearly defined at the 52-week low of $210.33, while resistance lies at the 52-week high of $293.06. A breakdown below the $210 support would signal a continuation of the bearish trend and potentially trigger further selling, whereas a sustained move above the descending trendline and recent highs near $280 would be necessary to suggest a recovery is underway. The stock's beta of 0.965 indicates its volatility is roughly in line with the broader market, which is notable given its recent sharp decline, suggesting the sell-off may be more company or sector-specific rather than a reflection of broader market beta.

Beta

0.96

0.96x market volatility

Max Drawdown

-21.8%

Largest decline past year

52-Week Range

$210-$293

Price range past year

Annual Return

+6.8%

Cumulative gain past year

PeriodLOW ReturnS&P 500
1m+1.1%+10.5%
3m-10.6%+3.9%
6m+0.3%+5.4%
1y+6.8%+29.6%
ytd-3.3%+5.4%

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LOW Fundamental Analysis

Lowe's revenue trajectory shows resilience but with notable quarterly volatility. The most recent Q4 revenue (Jan 30, 2026) was $20.58 billion, representing a solid 10.95% year-over-year growth. However, this follows a sequential decline from Q3's $20.81 billion and Q2's $23.96 billion, indicating a typical seasonal pattern and potential softening in the latter part of the fiscal year. Segment data shows Home Decor ($15.62B) and Building Products ($12.89B) as the largest revenue drivers, suggesting the company's performance is heavily tied to discretionary home improvement and core construction materials. The company remains solidly profitable. Q4 net income was $999 million, translating to a net margin of 4.85%. The gross margin for the quarter was a healthy 39.16%, though it has fluctuated between 31.2% and 39.2% over the past year, reflecting product mix and promotional activity. Operating margin for Q4 was 8.30%, which, while positive, is below the levels seen in Q2 (14.48%) and Q3 (11.92%), indicating some margin compression in the most recent quarter, potentially due to higher costs or competitive pressures. Lowe's balance sheet and cash flow position is a mixed picture. The company's debt-to-equity ratio is reported as -0.72, a negative figure stemming from negative shareholder equity, which complicates traditional leverage analysis. However, the company generates substantial cash, with trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $7.65 billion. The current ratio of 1.08 indicates adequate short-term liquidity. The return on equity (ROE) is a deeply negative -67.1%, again distorted by the negative equity base, while return on assets (ROA) is a positive 13.12%, demonstrating the company's ability to generate profits from its asset base. The strong free cash flow provides ample capacity for dividends, share repurchases, and debt service.

Quarterly Revenue

$20.6B

2026-01

Revenue YoY Growth

+0.10%

YoY Comparison

Gross Margin

+0.39%

Latest Quarter

Free Cash Flow

$7.7B

Last 12 Months

Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)

Revenue Breakdown

Building Products
Hardlines
Home Decor
Other Sales

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Valuation Analysis: Is LOW Overvalued?

Given Lowe's positive net income, the primary valuation metric selected is the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio. The trailing PE ratio is 22.44x, while the forward PE is lower at 17.92x. This gap implies the market expects earnings growth, with forward estimates pricing in an improvement in profitability or a moderation of recent headwinds. Compared to sector averages, Lowe's valuation appears to be at a discount based on the provided data, though specific industry average multiples are not available in the dataset for a direct numerical comparison. The stock's Price-to-Sales (PS) ratio of 1.73x and EV-to-Sales of 2.11x provide alternative checks, suggesting the market values each dollar of sales at a moderate multiple. The historical context reveals the stock's current trailing PE of 22.44x is below its own historical range observed in the data, which has seen peaks above 30x and even 199x during anomalous periods. For instance, in Q4 of fiscal 2025 (Jan 30, 2026), the historical PE was 37.36x, and it has been as low as 10.21x in mid-2022. Trading below its recent historical average suggests the market has de-rated the stock, potentially pricing in the housing sector slowdown and reduced growth expectations, moving it away from optimistic highs toward a more cautious valuation level.

PE

22.4x

Latest Quarter

vs. Historical

Low-End

5-Year PE Range 10x~199x

vs. Industry Avg

N/A

Industry PE ~N/A*

EV/EBITDA

14.5x

Enterprise Value Multiple