Newmont Mining Corporation
NEM
$118.47
-1.24%
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold miner, operating a portfolio of 11 mines and interests in two joint ventures across the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea, while also producing material byproduct volumes of copper, silver, zinc, and lead. Its scale, roughly two decades of gold reserves, and post-Newcrest consolidation give it a distinct position as the sector's benchmark large-cap gold producer rather than a growth-oriented explorer or royalty company. The current investor narrative centers on record free cash flow generation — highlighted by a $2.2 billion quarterly FCF print — improving cost guidance, and a strategic Nevada expansion expected to support production growth into 2027, all set against a powerful gold rally that drove a 34.5% single-month gain in August. Debate now hinges on whether gold-price-driven earnings momentum can persist amid production declines at some assets, mixed analyst sentiment following the Q3 beat, and how aggressively management deploys its cash pile into buybacks and dividends.…
NEM
Newmont Mining Corporation
$118.47
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NEM Today?
Rating: Buy (moderate conviction, gold-price dependent). Newmont is the world's largest gold miner trading at $120.91 with a 19-of-21 analyst Buy consensus, a 1.65 recommendation mean, and a $135.47 average target implying roughly 12.0% upside, and the core thesis is that record $10.074 billion TTM free cash flow, a 66.3% gross margin, and a 0.169 debt-to-equity ratio make this a cash-compounding gold proxy rather than a speculative explorer. The stock is not cheap on absolute terms, but the combination of 18.3% revenue growth, 38.9% net margin, and a 12.20x forward PE on $10.14 consensus EPS supports a constructive stance for investors who want gold exposure with a fortress balance sheet.
The supporting evidence is unusually concrete for a commodity producer: TTM free cash flow of $10.074 billion funded $1.779 billion of Q3 buybacks and $272 million of dividends, shrinking share count from 1.126 billion in Q1 2025 to 1.049 billion in Q3 2026 (a ~6.8% reduction); gross margin expanded roughly 2,460 basis points from 41.7% in Q1 2025 to 66.3% in Q3 2026; Q3 revenue of $6.363 billion rose 18.27% year-over-year; and ROE of 20.9% with ROA of 16.4% confirms efficient capital deployment. Against the 15.58x trailing PE, the 12.20x forward multiple implies 21.7% earnings growth is already discounted, and the 7.70x EV/EBITDA is moderate for a producer with 60.9% EBITDA margins — so the premium versus diversified miners is defensible but not a bargain.
The three risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) a gold-price correction that compresses both EPS and the multiple simultaneously, given quarterly EPS already swung from $1.20 in Q4 2025 to $3.01 in Q1 2026; (2) production slippage — management expects only ~5.3 million ounces sold in 2026 after divesting six higher-cost mines, and Nevada growth does not arrive until 2027; and (3) capital allocation at the top of the range, with $1.779 billion per quarter of buybacks executed near the $135.29 52-week high. This Buy would downgrade to Hold if gold retreats and gross margin falls back below ~55%, or if Q4 revenue drops below the $6.118 billion Q2 trough; it would upgrade to high-conviction Buy if Nevada hits 2027 guidance early and the forward PE stays below 12x. Verdict: fairly valued to modestly undervalued relative to its own 7.2x-20.8x historical PE band and its cash-generation profile, but priced for sustained high gold — not a deep-value entry.
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NEM 12-Month Price Forecast
The forward view is constructive but conditional: Newmont's $10.074 billion of TTM free cash flow, 66.3% gross margin, and 0.169 debt-to-equity ratio make it the highest-quality large-cap way to own gold, and the 12.20x forward PE on $10.14 consensus EPS is not demanding if gold holds. The base case (55% probability, $128-$140) assumes gold stays near current levels and the stock converges on the $135.47 average target, while the 25% bull case to $150-$165 requires Nevada execution ahead of 2027 plus continued central-bank gold demand. The 20% bear case to $70-$85 is a genuine tail — the stock already suffered a 32.4% max drawdown in the past year, and quarterly EPS swung from $1.20 to $3.01 in four quarters, showing how violently the leveraged earnings model can reverse. I would upgrade to high confidence if Q4 free cash flow holds above $2 billion and gross margin stays above 60%, and downgrade to neutral if gold retreats and gross margin falls below 55% or revenue drops below the $6.118 billion Q2 trough.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Newmont Mining Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $135.24 and implied upside of +14.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$135.24
22 analysts
Implied Upside
+14.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
22
covering this stock
Price Range
$70 - $165
Analyst target range
Coverage is broad and decisively bullish: 21 analysts rate the stock, with 19 Buy, 3 Hold, and 1 Sell, producing a consensus recommendation of "buy" and a recommendation mean of 1.65 (where 1.0 is a strong buy). The average target price of $135.47 implies roughly 12.0% upside from the current $120.91, a moderate but meaningful expected return that aligns with the stock trading near the upper end of its 52-week range. The bullish tilt is reinforced by recent institutional actions — Citigroup reiterated Buy on October 20, Barclays maintained Overweight on October 19, and Scotiabank kept Sector Outperform on October 27 — though Freedom Broker's downgrade to Hold from Buy on October 22 following the Q3 print shows some valuation-driven caution creeping in. The target range is wide, from a low of $70.00 to a high of $165.00 — a 136% spread that signals genuine disagreement about gold-price assumptions and operational execution. The $165 high target implies roughly 36.5% upside and likely assumes sustained elevated gold prices, successful Nevada expansion delivering 2027 production growth, and continued multiple expansion on record free cash flow. The $70 low target, roughly 42% below the current price, would require a sharp gold-price correction, margin compression from rising input costs, or operational setbacks at key mines. Consensus revenue estimates of $28.05 billion (range $26.15-$31.89 billion) and EPS estimates of $10.14 (range $9.24-$11.94) bracket a similarly wide outcome set. The wide dispersion, combined with the recent mixed rating actions, suggests high conviction on the gold thesis but meaningful uncertainty on timing and magnitude — investors should size positions accordingly.
Bulls vs Bears: NEM Investment Factors
The bull case currently holds the stronger evidence: $10.07 billion of TTM free cash flow, gross margins that expanded ~2,460 basis points to 66.3%, 18.3% revenue growth, a 0.169 debt-to-equity ratio, and 19 of 21 analysts at Buy are concrete, quantifiable advantages that outweigh the bear arguments today. The bears are not wrong about valuation — 15.58x trailing PE sits in the upper-middle of the historical band and the 12.20x forward multiple already discounts sustained high gold — but that is a timing concern rather than a thesis-breaker while cash generation remains this strong. The single most important tension is whether gold-price-driven earnings momentum can persist as production declines at some assets offset the Nevada expansion, which is not expected to support growth until 2027. If gold holds and Nevada delivers, the $135-$165 targets are reachable; if gold retreats or volumes slip further, the $70 low target and the 32.4% historical drawdown show how quickly the leveraged earnings model can reverse.
Bullish
- Record free cash flow funds aggressive buybacks: TTM free cash flow reached $10.074 billion, with quarterly prints of $3.144B (Q1), $2.205B (Q2), and $1.912B (Q3). This internal cash generation funded $1.779 billion of Q3 buybacks and $272 million of dividends, and share count has already fallen from 1.126B (Q1 2025) to 1.049B (Q3 2026), a ~6.8% reduction that compounds per-share value.
- Margin expansion of ~2,460 basis points: Gross margin climbed from 41.7% in Q1 2025 to 66.3% in Q3 2026, while Q3 EBITDA hit $3.873 billion at a 60.9% margin and operating margin reached 49.7%. This operating leverage on higher realized gold prices against a largely fixed cost base is the single most powerful fundamental driver in the thesis.
- Revenue re-accelerating 18.3% year-over-year: Q3 2026 revenue of $6.363 billion rose 18.27% versus $5.380 billion in Q3 2025, with gold doré contributing $4.13 billion and concentrate/other $2.233 billion. Net income of $2.475 billion produced a 38.9% net margin, confirming the top-line growth flows efficiently to the bottom line.
- Analyst consensus firmly bullish with 12% upside: Of 21 analysts, 19 rate Buy versus 3 Hold and 1 Sell, yielding a recommendation mean of 1.65 and a consensus 'buy'. The $135.47 average target implies roughly 12.0% upside from $120.91, reinforced by Citigroup (Buy, Oct 20), Barclays (Overweight, Oct 19), and Scotiabank (Sector Outperform, Oct 27) reiterations.
Bearish
- Valuation leaves little room for disappointment: At 15.58x trailing PE and 4.87x PS, Newmont trades at a premium to typical diversified miners and in the upper-middle of its own 7.2x-20.8x historical PE band. The 12.20x forward PE embeds consensus EPS of $10.14, meaning the market already prices sustained elevated gold — a retreat would compress both earnings and multiple simultaneously.
- Production declines at some assets: Coverage explicitly flags production challenges, and revenue has softened sequentially from the Q1 2026 peak of $7.307 billion to $6.118 billion in Q2 and $6.363 billion in Q3. Newmont expects to sell only ~5.3 million ounces in 2026 after divesting six higher-cost mines, so volume growth depends heavily on the Nevada expansion delivering in 2027.
- Earnings are a leveraged gold-price bet: The PEG ratio of 0.125 looks cheap only because earnings growth is a function of gold prices rather than structural business improvement. Q1 2026 EPS of $3.01 versus Q4 2025's $1.20 illustrates how violently quarterly earnings swing with realized prices — a sharp gold correction would hit EPS and the multiple at once.
- Wide 136% target spread signals real disagreement: Analyst targets range from $70.00 to $165.00 — a 136% spread — and consensus revenue brackets $26.15B-$31.89B against EPS of $9.24-$11.94. Freedom Broker's downgrade to Hold from Buy on October 22 following the Q3 print shows valuation-driven caution is already creeping in despite the headline beat.
NEM Technical Analysis
Newmont is in a sustained, powerful uptrend, with the stock up 46.5% over the past year and 19.5% year-to-date, though the path has been volatile. At $120.91, the stock sits roughly 89% of the way through its 52-week range of $81.34 to $135.29 — near but not at the highs, implying momentum remains intact without yet signaling overextension. The 32.4% max drawdown over the period underscores that this is a high-amplitude trend rather than a smooth grind higher, and the current position near the upper quartile of the range favors trend-following exposure over fresh value entry. Short-term momentum is re-accelerating: the stock is up 6.49% over the past month and 7.02% over three months, a sharp reversal from the mid-year slump that saw prices fall from $120.67 in May to a $89.20 low in late July. That recovery leg has been forceful — a 35.5% advance from the July trough to the November close — and the 1-month gain of 6.49% compares favorably to the 3-month gain of 7.02%, indicating the pace of appreciation has picked up rather than faded. Relative strength is a standout: NEM has outperformed SPY by 11.48 percentage points over one month and 36.91 points over one year, even as the S&P itself fell 4.99% over the past month, confirming genuine leadership rather than beta-driven drift. Key resistance sits at the 52-week high of $135.29, roughly 11.9% above the current price; a decisive breakout would confirm the August momentum leg and likely invite trend-following flows. Support is anchored at the $81.34 52-week low, with intermediate support around the $89-$90 July lows and the $106-$109 October consolidation zone. With a beta of just 0.573, Newmont is roughly 43% less volatile than the broader market — a defensive characteristic that, combined with the 3.03 short ratio and 7.89 million average volume, suggests position sizing can be more generous than a typical high-beta miner, though the 32.4% max drawdown warns that gold-price shocks can still produce outsized drawdowns.
Beta
0.57
0.57x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$81-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+31.7%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NEM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +1.1% | -2.4% |
| 3m | +3.7% | -2.3% |
| 6m | +8.6% | +2.8% |
| 1y | +31.7% | +11.3% |
| ytd | +17.0% | +11.4% |
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NEM Fundamental Analysis
Revenue is growing robustly and re-accelerating: Q3 2026 revenue of $6.363 billion rose 18.27% year-over-year versus $5.380 billion in Q3 2025, and the multi-quarter trend shows sequential expansion from $6.118 billion in Q2 and $7.307 billion in Q1. The Q1 peak reflected exceptionally strong gold pricing, and the modest sequential decline since then is consistent with the production challenges flagged in coverage, yet the YoY comparison remains firmly positive. Segment data shows gold doré contributing $4.13 billion and concentrate/other production $2.233 billion, confirming that gold remains the overwhelming driver of the top line while byproducts provide a secondary cushion. The growth trajectory supports the investment case as a leveraged play on gold prices with improving operational execution, though the sequential softening warrants monitoring. Profitability is exceptional for a miner: Q3 net income of $2.475 billion produced a 38.9% net margin, while gross margin reached 66.3% — up sharply from 48.3% in Q3 2025 and 56.0% in Q2 2026. Operating margin of 49.7% and EBITDA of $3.873 billion (60.9% EBITDA margin) reflect the powerful operating leverage of higher realized gold prices against a relatively fixed cost base. The margin expansion is the single most important fundamental development: gross margin has climbed from 41.7% in Q1 2025 to 66.3% in Q3 2026, a roughly 2,460-basis-point improvement that dwarfs what most cyclical companies achieve in a full cycle. The balance sheet is conservatively positioned, with debt-to-equity of just 0.169 and a current ratio of 2.29 providing ample liquidity. Free cash flow is the headline: $10.074 billion TTM, with quarterly FCF of $1.912 billion in Q3, $2.205 billion in Q2, and $3.144 billion in Q1, funding $1.779 billion of Q3 buybacks and $272 million of dividends from internal cash generation. ROE of 20.9% and ROA of 16.4% confirm efficient capital deployment, and with cash of $8.876 billion against minimal net debt, Newmont has substantial capacity for further shareholder returns or accretive M&A without external financing.
Quarterly Revenue
$6.4B
2026-09
Revenue YoY Growth
+18.3%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
66.3%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$10.1B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NEM Overvalued?
Because Newmont is solidly profitable — Q3 net income of $2.475 billion and positive TTM EPS — the PE ratio is the appropriate primary metric. The trailing PE of 15.58x against a forward PE of 12.20x implies the market expects meaningful earnings growth, consistent with consensus EPS estimates of $10.14 versus the current run-rate; the 21.7% compression between trailing and forward multiples signals that analysts anticipate gold-price-driven earnings to outpace any multiple expansion. The PEG ratio of 0.125 is strikingly low, suggesting the stock is cheap relative to its growth rate, though for a commodity producer this metric should be treated cautiously since earnings growth is largely a function of gold prices rather than structural business improvement. Relative to the Basic Materials sector, Newmont's 15.58x trailing PE and 4.87x PS sit at a premium to typical diversified miners, but the comparison is imperfect given gold miners' distinct earnings drivers and the sector's wide dispersion. The 7.70x EV/EBITDA and 4.61x EV/Sales are moderate for a large-cap producer with 60%+ EBITDA margins, and the 3.26x price-to-book reflects the market's premium for reserve quality and scale. The 1.0% dividend yield with a low 15.6% payout ratio leaves substantial room for distribution growth, supporting the premium. Historically, Newmont's PE has ranged from 7.2x (Q1 2025) to 20.8x (Q4 2025), with the current 15.58x sitting in the upper-middle of that band — above the 11.3x-12.2x levels seen in mid-2026 but below the 20.8x peak. The PS ratio of 4.87x is well below the 16-19x readings in the historical ratios data, though those figures appear to reflect a different share-count or data basis and should be treated with caution. The current valuation implies the market is pricing in sustained gold prices and continued margin strength rather than demanding a deep discount, leaving limited room for disappointment if gold retreats.
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~65x
vs. Industry Avg
16.4x
Industry PE ~16.4x*
EV/EBITDA
7.7x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the fact that Newmont's earnings are a leveraged bet on a single commodity. Gross margin swung from 41.7% in Q1 2025 to 66.3% in Q3 2026, and quarterly EPS ranged from $1.20 (Q4 2025) to $3.01 (Q1 2026) — a 150% swing in four quarters driven almost entirely by realized gold prices rather than volume. Revenue has already softened sequentially from the $7.307 billion Q1 2026 peak to $6.363 billion in Q3, and management expects to sell only ~5.3 million ounces in 2026 after divesting six higher-cost mines, so any production stumble at the remaining 11 mines would hit both volume and unit costs simultaneously. The balance sheet itself is not the risk — debt-to-equity of 0.169, a 2.29 current ratio, and $8.876 billion of cash are conservative — but the capital allocation decision to deploy $1.779 billion per quarter into buybacks at prices near the top of the 52-week range could destroy value if gold mean-reverts.
Market and competitive risks are dominated by valuation compression. At 15.58x trailing and 12.20x forward PE, Newmont trades at a premium to typical diversified miners and in the upper-middle of its 7.2x-20.8x historical band, meaning the market already pays for sustained high gold. The 136% spread between the $70 low and $165 high analyst targets — and Freedom Broker's October 22 downgrade to Hold — shows that even the sell-side cannot agree on the gold-price assumption embedded in the multiple. A beta of 0.573 provides some insulation from broad equity selloffs (NEM outperformed SPY by 36.91 points over one year even as the S&P fell 4.99% in the past month), but that low beta does not protect against a gold-specific shock, which is the dominant driver of this stock. Sector rotation out of materials and any hawkish shift that strengthens the dollar would pressure both the metal and the multiple at the same time.
The worst-case scenario is a sharp gold-price correction combined with operational slippage: realized prices fall back toward prior-cycle levels, gross margin compresses from 66.3% toward the 41.7% seen in Q1 2025, EPS undershoots the $9.24 low consensus estimate, and the multiple de-rates toward the 7.2x historical trough — a double hit that would justify the $70 analyst low target. From the current $120.91, that represents roughly -42%, and the stock's own 32.4% max drawdown over the past year shows this magnitude of decline is not hypothetical. A more moderate adverse path — gold flat-to-down and Nevada slipping past 2027 — would likely land the stock near the $81.34 52-week low, roughly -33% from here. Investors should size positions assuming a one-third to two-fifths drawdown is possible within any 12-month window.
FAQ
Ranked by severity: first, commodity-price risk — gross margin swung from 41.7% (Q1 2025) to 66.3% (Q3 2026) and quarterly EPS from $1.20 to $3.01, so a gold correction hits earnings and the multiple at once, the path to the $70 low target. Second, operational risk — management expects only ~5.3 million ounces sold in 2026 after divesting six mines, revenue has softened sequentially from $7.307 billion to $6.363 billion, and Nevada growth does not arrive until 2027, leaving volume exposed. Third, valuation/rotation risk — at 15.58x trailing in the upper-middle of the historical band, a hawkish dollar-strengthening shift or sector rotation out of materials would compress the multiple even if gold merely stalls. Fourth, capital-allocation risk — $1.779 billion per quarter of buybacks executed near the $135.29 high could destroy value if gold mean-reverts. The low 0.573 beta cushions broad equity selloffs but offers no protection against a gold-specific shock.
The scenario framework assigns 55% to a base case of $128-$140 (gold roughly flat to modestly higher, consensus EPS near $10.14 on $28.05 billion revenue, convergence on the $135.47 average target for ~12% upside), 25% to a bull case of $150-$165 (sustained central-bank gold demand, Nevada milestones ahead of 2027, free cash flow above $2 billion per quarter, EPS toward the $11.94 high estimate), and 20% to a bear case of $70-$85 (gold correction, margin retreat toward 41.7%, EPS below the $9.24 low estimate, multiple de-rating toward 7.2x). The base case is most likely and rests on the single assumption that realized gold prices hold near current levels rather than mean-reverting. Note the wide $70-$165 analyst range and $26.15-$31.89 billion revenue bracket — the forecast is a probability distribution around a gold price, not a precise target.
Newmont looks fairly valued to modestly undervalued relative to its own history but not cheap in absolute terms. The 15.58x trailing PE sits in the upper-middle of the 7.2x-20.8x historical band, and the 12.20x forward PE implies 21.7% earnings growth is already discounted — the market is paying for sustained high gold, not for a discount. Supporting metrics are more forgiving: the 7.70x EV/EBITDA and 4.61x EV/sales are moderate for a producer with 60.9% EBITDA margins, the 3.26x price-to-book reflects premium reserve quality, and the 0.125 PEG ratio looks cheap but is unreliable for a commodity producer whose growth is price-driven. The 1.0% dividend yield with a low 15.6% payout ratio leaves room for distribution growth. Net, the market expects gold to stay elevated and margins to hold; there is limited cushion if either assumption breaks, so the valuation is best described as fair with an asymmetric downside.
On a risk/reward basis the setup is moderately favorable: at $120.91 the stock offers roughly 12.0% upside to the $135.47 average analyst target, backed by 19 of 21 analysts at Buy and a 1.65 recommendation mean, while the downside case anchors near the $81.34 52-week low (-33%) or the $70 analyst low (-42%). The fundamental support is strong — $10.074 billion of TTM free cash flow, a 66.3% gross margin, 18.3% revenue growth, and a 0.169 debt-to-equity ratio — but the 12.20x forward PE already discounts consensus EPS of $10.14, so the return depends on gold holding near current levels. The biggest downside risk is a simultaneous earnings and multiple compression, exactly the double hit that produced the 32.4% max drawdown in the past year. It is a good buy for investors who want gold exposure with a fortress balance sheet and are comfortable with commodity-driven volatility, ideally accumulating on pullbacks toward the $106-$109 October consolidation zone rather than at 89% of the 52-week range; it is less suitable for those needing near-term certainty or income.
Newmont suits a medium-to-long holding period of at least 12-24 months rather than short-term trading. The long-term case rests on two decades of gold reserves, 11 mines plus two joint ventures, a 0.169 debt-to-equity ratio, and a buyback program that has cut shares from 1.126 billion (Q1 2025) to 1.049 billion (Q3 2026) — compounding that only pays off over time. The low 0.573 beta and 1.0% dividend yield make it a comparatively defensive cyclical, but the 32.4% max drawdown and the violent $120.67-to-$89.20-to-$135.14 round trip within six months show short-term holders face real timing risk. Earnings visibility is limited by gold prices and by the 2027 Nevada growth timeline, so position sizing should assume a one-third drawdown is possible in any 12-month window. A minimum 18-24 month horizon lets the Nevada expansion and continued buybacks work, while traders should treat the $135.29 high and $106-$109 support as the relevant levels.