Newmont Mining Corporation
NEM
$127.64
+2.05%
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold mining company, operating a portfolio of 11 mines and interests in two joint ventures across the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea, with significant byproduct production of copper, silver, zinc, and lead. As the industry's dominant player by market capitalization and production scale, Newmont has solidified its position through strategic acquisitions, including Goldcorp in 2019 and Newcrest in 2023, while also forming a Nevada joint venture with Barrick. The current investor narrative centers on the company's ability to navigate a volatile gold price environment, with recent headlines highlighting a sharp June selloff due to gold's bear market and rising costs, followed by a July rebound driven by valuation upgrades and strong Q1 2026 earnings that included a $6 billion buyback authorization. The debate revolves around whether Newmont's scale, cost discipline, and robust cash generation can offset near-term production declines and margin pressures from fluctuating gold prices.…
NEM
Newmont Mining Corporation
$127.64
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NEM Today?
Based on the analysis, I rate Newmont as a Buy. The thesis is that Newmont's scale, cost discipline, and strong cash generation, combined with an attractive valuation, make it a compelling investment for gold bulls. The consensus recommendation is Buy with an average target of $130.50, implying ~10.8% upside from the current price of $117.76.
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NEM 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on Newmont, driven by its strong revenue growth, attractive valuation, and robust cash flow. The forward PE of 11.22x suggests the market is pricing in significant earnings growth, which is supported by analyst estimates. However, the medium confidence reflects the uncertainty around gold prices and production. If gold prices remain above $2,000/oz, the stock is likely to appreciate towards the analyst target. A downgrade to neutral would occur if gold prices fall below $1,800/oz or if production guidance is cut.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Newmont Mining Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $132.44 and implied upside of +3.8% versus the current price.
Average Target
$132.44
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+3.8%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$67 - $170
Analyst target range
The target price range spans from a low of $67.00 to a high of $168.00, a wide spread of $101, reflecting significant uncertainty about Newmont's future performance. The high target of $168 assumes continued gold price strength and successful execution of cost-cutting measures, while the low target of $67 suggests a scenario where gold prices fall sharply and production declines more than expected. Recent ratings actions show a positive shift, with TD Cowen upgrading from Hold to Buy on July 14, 2026, and several firms maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings, indicating that analysts are becoming more optimistic about the stock's valuation and long-term prospects.
Bulls vs Bears: NEM Investment Factors
Newmont presents a balanced risk-reward profile. The bull case is supported by accelerating revenue growth, robust profitability, strong cash flow, and an attractive valuation with a low PEG ratio. The bear case is centered on gold price volatility, production declines, and rising costs, which could pressure margins. Currently, the evidence slightly favors the bulls due to the company's scale, cost discipline, and the market's expectation of sustained high gold prices. The most critical tension is the sustainability of gold prices: if they remain above $2,000/oz, Newmont's earnings and cash flow will likely exceed expectations, driving the stock higher; if they fall sharply, the stock could revisit its 52-week low. This single factor will determine the investment outcome.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue surged 47.46% YoY to $7.183B, with sequential growth from $4.871B in Q1 2025 to $7.183B in Q1 2026, driven by higher gold prices and Newcrest acquisition. This demonstrates strong operational momentum and market share expansion.
- Robust Profitability and Cash Flow: Q1 2026 net income was $3.262B with a net margin of 45.4%, and free cash flow TTM reached $12.273B. The company's operating margin of 60.6% highlights exceptional cost control and pricing power, supporting shareholder returns.
- Attractive Valuation with Low PEG: Forward PE of 11.22x and PEG ratio of 0.13 suggest the stock is undervalued relative to its growth prospects. The trailing PE of 15.58x is reasonable for a gold major, and the EV/EBITDA of 7.31x is below the sector average.
- Strong Balance Sheet and Capital Returns: Debt-to-equity is only 0.17, and the company authorized a $6B buyback, signaling confidence. With a dividend yield of 1.0% and payout ratio of 15.6%, there is ample room for increased capital returns.
Bearish
- Gold Price Volatility and Bear Market: Gold entered a bear market in June 2026, with prices plunging 25%, causing NEM to drop 15% in June. The stock's performance is highly sensitive to gold prices, and a sustained downturn could severely impact earnings.
- Production Decline and Rising Costs: The company forecasts lower production in 2026 (5.3M ounces) after selling six higher-cost mines, and costs are rising. This could compress margins if gold prices do not rise further, as seen in Q1 2026 gross margin of 62.4% vs. 58.8% in Q4 2025.
- High Valuation Relative to Historical Norms: The stock trades at 87.3% of its 52-week range, near the high, and the PS ratio of 5.0x is elevated. If gold prices stall, the stock could face multiple compression, as seen in the June selloff when it fell to $89.70.
- Dependence on Gold Price Strength: Gold sales accounted for $4.776B of Q1 revenue (66.5%), making earnings highly leveraged to gold prices. A 10% decline in gold could reduce EPS by over 20%, given the operating leverage.
NEM Technical Analysis
Newmont's stock is in a strong long-term uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +71.96%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +20.37% over the same period. The current price of $117.76 sits at 87.3% of its 52-week range (low of $67.20, high of $134.88), indicating the stock is trading near the upper end of its range, reflecting robust momentum but also potential overextension. The stock's beta of 0.5 suggests it is half as volatile as the market, which is unusual for a gold miner and may reflect its diversified operations and strong balance sheet, making it a lower-risk way to play gold.
Beta
0.50
0.50x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$69-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+85.0%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NEM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +38.0% | +1.9% |
| 3m | +18.6% | +2.3% |
| 6m | +4.5% | +10.6% |
| 1y | +85.0% | +19.5% |
| ytd | +26.1% | +11.8% |
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NEM Fundamental Analysis
Newmont's revenue trajectory is strongly accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $7.183 billion, up 47.46% year-over-year, driven by soaring gold prices and contributions from the Newcrest acquisition. The multi-quarter trend shows sequential growth from $4.871 billion in Q1 2025 to $5.275 billion in Q2, $5.380 billion in Q3, $6.571 billion in Q4, and $7.183 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a clear acceleration. The revenue surge is primarily driven by gold sales, which accounted for $4.776 billion of Q1 revenue, while concentrate and other production contributed $2.531 billion, highlighting the company's reliance on gold price strength.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+47.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
62.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is NEM Overvalued?
Given Newmont's positive net income of $3.262 billion in Q1 2026, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 15.58x, while the forward PE is 11.22x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, which is consistent with analyst estimates of EPS growth from $3.01 in Q1 to an average of $9.02 for the year. The gap between trailing and forward PE suggests the market is pricing in a substantial earnings increase, likely due to sustained high gold prices and operational improvements.
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~65x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks include the company's high sensitivity to gold prices, which directly impact revenue and profitability. In Q1 2026, gold sales comprised 66.5% of total revenue, and a 10% decline in gold prices could reduce EPS by over 20% due to operating leverage. Additionally, production is forecast to decline to 5.3M ounces in 2026, and rising costs could compress margins. The company's debt-to-equity is low at 0.17, but its capital expenditure requirements and dividend commitments could strain cash flow if gold prices fall. The $6B buyback program, while positive, also reduces cash reserves, increasing financial risk in a downturn.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Gold price volatility, as a 10% decline could reduce EPS by over 20%; 2) Production decline, with 2026 output forecast at 5.3M ounces, down from prior years; 3) Rising costs, which could compress margins; 4) Macro risks, such as rising interest rates, which could strengthen the dollar and pressure gold prices. The most severe risk is a prolonged gold bear market, which could push the stock down to its 52-week low of $67.20.
The 12-month forecast is bullish to neutral. The bull case (30% probability) targets $140-$168, the base case (50% probability) targets $120-$140, and the bear case (20% probability) targets $67-$90. The most likely scenario is the base case, with the stock reaching the analyst average target of $130.50, assuming gold prices remain around $2,200/oz and production meets guidance. The key assumption is gold price stability.
Based on the forward PE of 11.22x and PEG ratio of 0.13, NEM appears undervalued relative to its growth prospects. The PS ratio of 5.0x is higher than the sector average, but the strong net margin of 45.4% justifies a premium. Compared to its own history, the stock is trading near the high end of its range, but the earnings growth expected in 2026 supports the valuation. Overall, NEM is fairly valued to slightly undervalued, with the market pricing in continued gold price strength.
NEM is a good buy for investors with a bullish view on gold prices. The stock offers a forward PE of 11.22x, which is attractive, and the analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $130.50, implying ~10.8% upside. However, the stock is highly sensitive to gold prices, so if gold falls, NEM could drop significantly. For long-term investors who believe gold will remain strong, NEM is a solid addition, but it carries higher risk than a diversified stock.
NEM is suitable for long-term investment, given its low beta of 0.5 and strong cash flow generation. The stock is less volatile than the market, making it a good core holding for gold exposure. However, short-term traders can also benefit from gold price swings, as seen in the recent 23.7% one-month gain. For long-term investors, a minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out gold price cycles and benefit from the company's growth and dividends.