Newmont Mining Corporation
NEM
$128.71
+1.27%
Newmont Corporation is the world's largest gold miner, with a portfolio of 11 mines and interests in two joint ventures across the Americas, Africa, Australia, and Papua New Guinea, also producing copper, silver, zinc, and lead as byproducts. As an industry leader, Newmont has expanded through major acquisitions, including Goldcorp in 2019 and Newcrest in 2023, and operates a Nevada joint venture with Barrick, solidifying its scale and reserve base. The current investor narrative centers on the company's strategic portfolio optimization—selling higher-cost mines to focus on core assets—while benefiting from a strong gold price environment, which has driven a 71% stock surge over the past year and recent analyst upgrades on valuation grounds. However, debates persist around gold's volatility, cost inflation, and the sustainability of record free cash flow generation.…
NEM
Newmont Mining Corporation
$128.71
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy NEM Today?
Rating: Buy. Newmont offers a compelling risk-reward with a forward PE of 12.7x, a PEG of 0.13, and a consensus Buy rating with an average target of $132.87. The company is generating record free cash flow of $12.27B TTM, and revenue is accelerating at 47.5% YoY, driven by higher gold prices and the Newcrest acquisition. With a low debt-to-equity of 0.17 and a net cash position, the balance sheet is strong.
Sign up to view all
NEM 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on NEM over the next 12 months, driven by strong revenue acceleration, record free cash flow, and an attractive valuation. The main risk is gold price volatility, but the current macro environment (central bank buying, debt concerns) is supportive. If gold prices hold above $2,200/oz, NEM is likely to outperform. A downgrade to neutral would occur if gold prices break below $2,000/oz or if the company misses production guidance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Newmont Mining Corporation's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $132.87 and implied upside of +3.2% versus the current price.
Average Target
$132.87
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+3.2%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$67 - $170
Analyst target range
Insufficient analyst coverage available
Bulls vs Bears: NEM Investment Factors
Newmont presents a compelling bull case driven by accelerating revenue growth, record free cash flow, and a low valuation relative to growth. However, the bear case centers on extreme sensitivity to gold prices, which have shown violent swings, and potential cost inflation. Currently, the bull evidence is stronger given the robust financial performance and attractive PEG ratio, but the key tension is whether gold prices can sustain their rally. If gold continues to rise, NEM is undervalued; if gold enters a prolonged bear market, the stock could face significant downside despite its operational strengths.
Bullish
- Revenue Growth Accelerating Sharply: Q1 2026 revenue surged 47.5% YoY to $7.18B, with sequential growth from $5.38B in Q3 2025 to $6.57B in Q4 2025, driven by higher gold prices and Newcrest contributions. This acceleration underpins strong earnings momentum.
- Record Free Cash Flow Generation: TTM free cash flow stands at $12.27B, reflecting robust operational performance and gold price tailwinds. This cash generation supports debt reduction, dividends, and strategic investments.
- Attractive Valuation with PEG of 0.13: With a trailing PE of 15.6x and forward PE of 12.7x, the stock trades at a discount to its growth rate. The PEG ratio of 0.13 indicates significant undervaluation relative to expected earnings growth of ~22.7%.
- Strong Balance Sheet with Low Debt: Debt-to-equity is only 0.17, and the company holds a net cash position of $3.2B, providing financial flexibility and resilience against gold price volatility.
Bearish
- High Dependence on Gold Price: Revenue and profitability are highly sensitive to gold prices, which are volatile. A 25% gold price plunge into a bear market in June 2026 caused NEM's stock to drop 15% in a month, illustrating this risk.
- Cost Inflation Pressuring Margins: Despite record gold prices, all-in sustaining costs are rising due to inflation and mine-specific challenges. This could compress margins if gold prices stagnate or decline.
- Integration Risks from Newcrest Acquisition: The 2023 acquisition of Newcrest adds complexity and integration risks, including potential asset write-downs or operational disruptions, which could weigh on returns.
- Stock Near 52-Week High, Overbought Risk: At $128.09, the stock is 94.7% of its 52-week range (high $135.29), and the 1-month relative strength of +22.8% suggests potential overextension. A pullback could occur if gold corrects.
NEM Technical Analysis
Newmont's stock is in a strong uptrend, with a 1-year price change of +71.06%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's +18.65% over the same period. The current price of $128.09 sits at 94.7% of its 52-week range (low $75.22, high $135.29), indicating the stock is trading near its highs, reflecting robust momentum but also potential overextension. The 6-month change of +10.15% shows a more moderate pace compared to the explosive 1-year gain, suggesting the uptrend has matured but remains intact.
Beta
0.54
0.54x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.4%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$76-$135
Price range past year
Annual Return
+69.5%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | NEM Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +9.8% | -1.4% |
| 3m | +31.9% | +3.3% |
| 6m | +17.5% | +15.1% |
| 1y | +69.5% | +17.2% |
| ytd | +27.2% | +11.8% |
Bobby - Your AI Investment Partner
Get real-time data, AI-driven personalized investment analysis to make smarter investment decisions
NEM Fundamental Analysis
Newmont's revenue trajectory is strongly accelerating, with Q1 2026 revenue of $7.183 billion, up 47.46% year-over-year, and sequential growth from $6.571 billion in Q4 2025 and $5.38 billion in Q3 2025. This growth is driven by higher gold prices and contributions from the Newcrest acquisition, with gold doré sales of $4.776 billion and concentrate sales of $2.531 billion in the quarter. The multi-quarter trend shows revenue climbing from $4.871 billion in Q1 2025 to $7.183 billion in Q1 2026, indicating a clear acceleration that supports the investment case.
Quarterly Revenue
$7.2B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+47.5%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
62.4%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$12.3B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
Open an Account, get $2 TSLA now!
Valuation Analysis: Is NEM Overvalued?
Given Newmont's positive net income, the PE ratio is the primary valuation metric. The trailing PE is 15.58x, while the forward PE is 12.70x, indicating the market expects earnings growth of approximately 22.7% over the next year. This gap suggests optimism about continued margin expansion and gold price strength, as forward earnings are projected to rise to $8.98 per share from the trailing $8.22 per share (calculated from EPS of $3.01 for Q1 2026 annualized).
PE
15.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 7x~65x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
7.3x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks include high sensitivity to gold prices, which directly impact revenue and cash flow. A 25% drop in gold prices in June 2026 led to a 15% stock decline in a month, highlighting earnings volatility. While debt-to-equity is low at 0.17, the company's profitability is tied to commodity cycles, and cost inflation could compress margins. The payout ratio of 15.6% is conservative, but a sustained gold downturn could pressure free cash flow and dividend growth.
FAQ
The primary risk is gold price volatility, as a 25% drop in gold prices could lead to a 15% stock decline, as seen in June 2026. Cost inflation is another risk, potentially compressing margins. Integration risks from the Newcrest acquisition could lead to operational disruptions. Additionally, the stock's beta of 0.54 means it may not provide diversification benefits during market selloffs, but it also means lower volatility than the broader market.
The 12-month forecast is moderately bullish. The base case (50% probability) targets $120-$145, with gold prices around $2,500/oz. The bull case (30% probability) targets $150-$170 if gold rallies above $3,000/oz. The bear case (20% probability) targets $75-$100 if gold enters a bear market. The most likely scenario is the base case, assuming gold prices remain elevated but volatile.
NEM is undervalued relative to its growth prospects. The trailing PE of 15.6x and forward PE of 12.7x are below the market average, and the PEG ratio of 0.13 indicates significant undervaluation. Compared to its own history, the stock is trading at a discount to its average PE. The market is pricing in moderate growth, but the company is delivering 47.5% revenue growth, suggesting the market is not fully appreciating the earnings potential.
Yes, NEM is a good buy for investors with a long-term horizon and a bullish view on gold. The stock trades at a forward PE of 12.7x, which is attractive given expected EPS growth of 22.7%. The consensus target of $132.87 implies ~3.7% upside, but the bull case targets $170. The main risk is a gold price decline, which could lead to a -41% drop to the 52-week low of $75.22. For those who believe gold will remain strong, NEM offers a compelling risk-reward.
NEM is better suited for long-term investment due to its cyclical nature and gold price sensitivity. Short-term trading is possible given the stock's volatility, but the company's fundamentals, such as low debt and strong free cash flow, support a long-term hold. The stock has a beta of 0.54, indicating lower volatility than the market, but gold price swings can cause significant short-term moves. A minimum holding period of 3-5 years is recommended to ride out commodity cycles and benefit from the company's growth initiatives.