Ollie's Bargain Outlet
OLLI
$74.75
-5.84%
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. is a leading extreme-value retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory, operating over 500 stores across the Eastern United States. The company differentiates itself through a treasure-hunt shopping experience, offering brand-name products at deeply discounted prices, which has cultivated a loyal customer base and a distinct competitive position in the discount retail space. Currently, the stock is under significant pressure, with shares down over 40% in the past year, driven by concerns about consumer spending, tariff impacts, and broader retail sector weakness. Despite strong recent quarterly results, including 14.25% revenue growth, investor sentiment remains cautious, focusing on the sustainability of growth amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.…
OLLI
Ollie's Bargain Outlet
$74.75
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy OLLI Today?
Based on the analysis, OLLI is rated a Buy. The company's strong fundamental performance, with 14.25% revenue growth and expanding margins, combined with a forward PE of 15.14x that is below the industry average, suggests the stock is undervalued. The analyst consensus is Buy with an average target of $107.07, implying 40% upside, which provides a compelling risk-reward profile.
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OLLI 12-Month Price Forecast
The AI assessment is bullish on OLLI, driven by strong fundamental performance and attractive valuation. The company's revenue growth is accelerating, margins are expanding, and the forward PE is below industry norms, suggesting the market is underpricing its growth potential. However, the medium confidence reflects the significant macro risks, particularly tariffs and consumer spending, which could derail the thesis. If the company continues to execute and macro conditions stabilize, the stock has substantial upside. Conversely, if tariffs bite and growth slows, the stock could remain under pressure. The stance would be upgraded to high confidence if the company delivers another quarter of strong results and provides positive guidance.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Ollie's Bargain Outlet's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $106.20 and implied upside of +42.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$106.20
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+42.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$73 - $135
Analyst target range
Ollie's is covered by 15 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Buy' (mean rating of 1.6, where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average target price is $107.07, implying a 40.0% upside from the current price of $76.49. The analyst sentiment is bullish, with 10 recent ratings including 6 Buys, 2 Neutral, and 2 Overweight/Outperform, indicating strong conviction in the stock's recovery potential. The target price range is $70.00 (low) to $135.00 (high), with the high target suggesting a 76.5% upside, likely assuming a successful navigation of tariff pressures and continued store expansion. The low target of $70.00 implies a 8.5% downside, reflecting risks of consumer spending weakness and margin compression. The wide spread between the low and high targets (65 points) indicates high uncertainty, but the overall bullish consensus and recent upgrades (e.g., Truist Securities reiterating Buy on July 9, 2026) suggest analysts see the current selloff as overdone.
Bulls vs Bears: OLLI Investment Factors
Ollie's presents a classic value-versus-momentum conflict. On the bull side, the company is executing well operationally: revenue growth is accelerating at 14.25%, gross margins are expanding to 41.88%, and the balance sheet is solid with a debt-to-equity of 0.36. Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish, with a consensus Buy and a 40% average upside. On the bear side, the stock is in a severe downtrend, down 42% over the past year, and faces macro headwinds from tariffs and consumer spending concerns. The trailing PE of 28.14x is a premium to the industry, but the forward PE of 15.14x suggests the market is pricing in strong growth. The most critical tension is whether the company can sustain its growth and margin expansion in the face of tariff pressures and a potentially weakening consumer. If it can, the stock is significantly undervalued; if not, the current price may still be too high. Currently, the bull case has stronger evidence given the fundamental performance and analyst conviction, but the bear case cannot be ignored given the technical weakness.
Bullish
- Accelerating revenue growth: Q1 2026 revenue grew 14.25% YoY to $658.9M, up from 6.5% growth in Q1 2025, indicating accelerating momentum. This is supported by consistent sequential growth across recent quarters, from $613.6M in Q3 2025 to $779.3M in Q4 2025.
- Expanding gross margins: Gross margin improved to 41.88% in Q1 2026, up from 35.99% in Q4 2025 and 41.10% in Q1 2025, reflecting better merchandise margins and cost management. This is a key driver of profitability in the discount retail space.
- Strong analyst conviction: With a consensus 'Buy' rating (mean 1.6) and an average target price of $107.07, analysts see 40% upside from the current price of $76.49. The high target of $135 implies 76.5% upside, and recent reiterations (e.g., Truist on July 9, 2026) reinforce bullish sentiment.
- Undervalued on forward earnings: The forward PE of 15.14x is below the industry average of 22x, suggesting the market is pricing in strong future growth at a discount. The PEG ratio of 1.39 indicates reasonable valuation relative to expected earnings growth.
Bearish
- Severe price decline: The stock is down 42% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 20.4%, underperforming by 62.4 percentage points. The 6-month decline of 32.7% shows persistent bearish momentum, with the stock trading near its 52-week low of $60.29.
- Macro headwinds and tariffs: Investor concerns about consumer spending and tariff impacts have pressured the stock, as highlighted in recent news about Five Below's selloff. These factors could compress margins and slow growth, especially if tariffs increase costs on imported goods.
- Valuation premium on trailing earnings: The trailing PE of 28.14x is 28% above the industry average of 22x, indicating the market is paying a premium for past performance. If growth decelerates, the stock could face multiple compression.
- High uncertainty in analyst targets: The spread between the low ($70) and high ($135) analyst targets is 65 points, reflecting significant uncertainty. The low target implies 8.5% downside from the current price, and the wide range suggests analysts are divided on the company's prospects.
OLLI Technical Analysis
Ollie's is in a pronounced downtrend, with the stock price falling 42.01% over the past year, while the S&P 500 gained 20.37% in the same period. The current price of $76.49 sits at 18.6% of its 52-week range (between $60.29 low and $140.54 high), indicating the stock is trading near its lows, which could represent a value opportunity or a falling knife. The 6-month price change of -32.73% further confirms the persistent bearish momentum, with the stock significantly underperforming the market's relative strength of -46.60% over the same period.
Beta
0.50
0.50x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-56.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$60-$140
Price range past year
Annual Return
-44.6%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | OLLI Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +13.3% | +1.9% |
| 3m | -8.7% | +2.3% |
| 6m | -31.2% | +10.6% |
| 1y | -44.6% | +19.5% |
| ytd | -32.9% | +11.8% |
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OLLI Fundamental Analysis
Ollie's revenue trajectory is robust, with the most recent quarter (Q1 2026) reporting revenue of $658.93 million, a 14.25% year-over-year increase. This growth is accelerating, as prior quarters showed revenue of $779.26 million (Q4 2025), $613.62 million (Q3 2025), and $679.56 million (Q2 2025), indicating a consistent upward trend. The company's gross margin improved to 41.88% in Q1 2026, up from 35.99% in Q4 2025, reflecting better merchandise margins and cost management. Net income for Q1 2026 was $56.4 million, with a net margin of 8.56%, up from 7.52% in Q3 2025, showing improving profitability. The company's operating margin of 12.19% (TTM) is healthy for the discount retail industry, which typically operates on thin margins, and the net margin of 9.08% (TTM) indicates efficient cost control.
Quarterly Revenue
$658928000.0B
2026-05
Revenue YoY Growth
+14.2%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
41.9%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$212725000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
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Valuation Analysis: Is OLLI Overvalued?
Given that Ollie's has positive net income, the PE ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric. The trailing PE is 28.14x, while the forward PE is 15.14x, implying the market expects significant earnings growth, which is supported by the PEG ratio of 1.39. Compared to the industry average PE of 22x (based on available data), Ollie's trades at a 28% premium on a trailing basis, but the forward PE of 15.14x is below the industry average, suggesting the market is pricing in strong future growth. Historically, the stock's PE has ranged from 14.5x to 64.1x over the past few years, with the current trailing PE of 28.14x sitting near the middle of that range, indicating a fair valuation relative to its own history. The PS ratio of 2.55x is below the historical average of around 8-10x, suggesting the stock is undervalued on a sales basis, but this may reflect the market's concerns about future growth sustainability.
PE
28.1x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 15x~60x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
19.0x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial & Operational Risks: Ollie's carries a moderate debt load with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36, which is manageable but could become a burden if cash flows deteriorate. The company's net margin of 9.08% (TTM) is healthy, but it is sensitive to gross margin fluctuations; Q4 2025 saw gross margin drop to 35.99%, a 590 basis point decline from Q1 2026, indicating volatility. Revenue concentration in the Eastern U.S. exposes the company to regional economic downturns, and the reliance on closeout merchandise means supply availability can be unpredictable. The company's free cash flow of $212.7M (TTM) is positive, but the payout ratio is 0%, meaning all earnings are reinvested, which could pressure returns if growth stalls.
FAQ
The key risks are: 1) Tariff increases, which could compress margins and raise costs; 2) Consumer spending weakness, which could slow revenue growth; 3) Valuation compression, as the trailing PE of 28.14x is above the industry average; and 4) Competition from other discount retailers. The most severe risk is a combination of tariffs and a recession, which could lead to a significant earnings miss and a drop to the 52-week low of $60.29, a 21% downside. Investors should monitor these factors closely.
The 12-month forecast is bullish, with a base case target of $107.07 (40% upside) and a bull case target of $135 (76.5% upside), based on analyst estimates. The bear case target is $70 (8.5% downside). The probabilities are 30% bull, 50% base, and 20% bear, reflecting a positive skew. The most likely scenario is the base case, where the company continues to grow revenue at a mid-teens rate and the stock recovers to the average analyst target. However, the outcome depends heavily on tariff and consumer trends.
OLLI is undervalued on a forward basis, with a forward PE of 15.14x versus the industry average of 22x, indicating the market is pricing in lower growth than analysts expect. On a trailing basis, the PE of 28.14x is a 28% premium to the industry, but this is justified by the company's strong growth and margin expansion. The PS ratio of 2.55x is well below the historical average of 8-10x, further suggesting undervaluation. The market appears to be overly pessimistic about the company's prospects, given its recent fundamental performance. If the company continues to grow revenue at 14%+ and maintain margins, the stock is likely undervalued.
OLLI is a good buy for investors with a medium-to-long-term horizon who believe in the company's growth story. The stock is trading at a forward PE of 15.14x, which is below the industry average of 22x, and analysts see 40% upside to the average target of $107.07. The main risk is the ongoing tariff and consumer spending concerns, which have driven the stock down 42% over the past year. If you are comfortable with volatility and believe the company can navigate these challenges, the current price offers an attractive entry point. However, if you are risk-averse, you may want to wait for more clarity on tariffs and consumer trends.
OLLI is more suitable for long-term investment, given its growth potential and current undervaluation. The stock has a beta of 0.499, indicating lower volatility than the market, but it has been in a downtrend, making short-term trading risky. The company's growth story, with 14.25% revenue growth and expanding margins, supports a long-term holding period of at least 3-5 years. Short-term traders may find opportunities in the volatility, but the stock's recovery is likely to take time. For long-term investors, the current price offers a good entry point, but they should be prepared for continued volatility.