Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock
TARS
$82.76
+11.76%
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is a commercial-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing first-in-class therapeutics, with an initial emphasis on eye care. Its lead product, XDEMVY, is an FDA-approved eye drop for Demodex blepharitis, and the company is also advancing pipeline candidates for ocular rosacea and infectious disease prophylaxis. As a niche player in the ophthalmic space, Tarsus has established a strong commercial foothold with XDEMVY, driving rapid revenue growth. The current investor narrative centers on the sustainability of XDEMVY's market penetration, the potential expansion of its pipeline, and the company's path to profitability, as it continues to invest heavily in commercialization and R&D.…
TARS
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock
$82.76
TARS 12-Month Price Forecast
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Common Stock's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $94.86 and implied upside of +14.6% versus the current price.
Average Target
$94.86
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+14.6%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$84 - $104
Analyst target range
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals is covered by 8 analysts, with a consensus recommendation of 'Strong Buy' and a mean recommendation score of 1.11 (where 1 is Strong Buy and 5 is Sell). The average analyst target price is $93.50, implying a 43.1% upside from the current price of $65.33. The target price range spans from a low of $88.00 to a high of $104.00, indicating a relatively tight spread of $16, which suggests analysts have high conviction in the stock's upside potential. The consensus leans strongly bullish, with no sell ratings and only one neutral rating from Goldman Sachs, while the majority of ratings are Buy or Outperform.
Bulls vs Bears: TARS Investment Factors
Tarsus presents a compelling growth story with explosive revenue growth, high margins, and strong analyst support, but faces significant challenges from ongoing losses, high valuation, and product concentration. The bull case is currently stronger, driven by the accelerating revenue trajectory and clear path to profitability, but the stock's premium valuation leaves little room for error. The key tension is whether XDEMVY's market penetration can sustain the current growth rate and lead to profitability before investor patience wanes, as any slowdown would likely trigger a sharp de-rating.
Bullish
- Explosive Revenue Growth: Q1 2026 revenue surged 106.87% YoY to $162.05M, with sequential acceleration from $102.66M in Q2 2025 to $162.05M in Q1 2026. This rapid ramp is driven by XDEMVY's commercial success, indicating strong market adoption.
- High Gross Margin: Gross margin reached 94.2% in Q1 2026, reflecting the premium pricing power of XDEMVY and efficient manufacturing. This high margin provides significant operating leverage as revenue scales.
- Strong Analyst Conviction: Consensus rating is Strong Buy with a mean score of 1.11, and the average target price of $93.50 implies 43.1% upside from the current $65.33. No sell ratings and a tight target range ($88-$104) signal high confidence.
- Improving Profitability Trajectory: Net loss narrowed from -$25.12M in Q1 2025 to -$6.97M in Q1 2026, with net margin improving from -32.1% to -4.3%. The company is approaching breakeven, with forward PE of 26.29x indicating expected profitability.
Bearish
- Negative Earnings and Cash Flow: Despite revenue growth, TARS remains unprofitable with EPS of -$0.16 in Q1 2026 and negative free cash flow of -$31.54M TTM. The company's reliance on external funding could dilute shareholders if losses persist.
- High Valuation Multiple: PS ratio of 7.58x is elevated for a company with negative net income, and forward PE of 26.29x implies aggressive earnings expectations. Any miss on profitability timeline could trigger multiple compression.
- Product Concentration Risk: XDEMVY accounts for ~90% of Q1 2026 revenue ($145.39M of $162.05M). This single-product dependence exposes the company to regulatory, competitive, or commercial setbacks in that franchise.
- Recent Price Weakness: Stock is down 19.1% YTD and 7.4% in the last month, underperforming the S&P 500 by 10.2% over 1 month. This negative momentum could reflect investor concerns about growth sustainability or sector rotation.
TARS Technical Analysis
Tarsus Pharmaceuticals has exhibited a strong uptrend over the past year, with the stock price appreciating 56.89% over the 1-year period, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 21.46% gain. The current price of $65.33 sits at 62.5% of its 52-week range (low of $44.675, high of $85.25), indicating the stock is trading in the upper half of its range but below recent highs. This positioning suggests a consolidation phase after a significant rally, with the stock having pulled back from its peak but still maintaining a constructive long-term trend. The 52-week low of $44.675 provides a strong support level, while the high of $85.25 represents a key resistance zone.
Beta
0.51
0.51x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-32.0%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$48-$85
Price range past year
Annual Return
+41.3%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TARS Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +35.0% | +1.0% |
| 3m | +37.2% | +1.1% |
| 6m | +13.0% | +13.8% |
| 1y | +41.3% | +19.5% |
| ytd | +2.5% | +12.2% |
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TARS Fundamental Analysis
Tarsus has demonstrated exceptional revenue growth, with Q1 2026 revenue of $162.05 million, representing a 106.87% year-over-year increase from $78.34 million in Q1 2025. The revenue trajectory has been consistently accelerating, with sequential growth from $102.66 million in Q2 2025 to $118.70 million in Q3 2025, $151.67 million in Q4 2025, and $162.05 million in Q1 2026. This growth is driven by strong product sales of XDEMVY, which contributed $145.39 million in Q1 2026, complemented by $16.67 million in license and collaboration revenue. The company's gross margin remains robust at 94.2% in Q1 2026, reflecting the high-margin nature of its pharmaceutical products.
Quarterly Revenue
$162054000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+106.9%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
94.2%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-31539000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TARS Overvalued?
Given that Tarsus has negative trailing net income (EPS of -$0.16 in Q1 2026), the price-to-sales (PS) ratio is the most appropriate valuation metric, as it allows for comparison despite the lack of profitability. The current PS ratio stands at 7.58x, based on a market cap of $3.42 billion and trailing twelve-month revenue of approximately $451 million. The forward PE ratio of 26.29x implies that analysts expect significant earnings growth, as the company is projected to become profitable in the near term. This forward PE suggests the market is pricing in a substantial improvement in profitability, which is consistent with the company's rapid revenue growth and improving operating leverage.
PE
-51.5x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
N/A
5-Year PE Range 17x~59x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
-62.1x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial risks are notable: TARS has negative net income and free cash flow, with EPS of -$0.16 in Q1 2026 and FCF of -$31.54M TTM. The company's high PS ratio of 7.58x and forward PE of 26.29x imply that investors are pricing in substantial future profitability, leaving little room for disappointment. While the current ratio of 3.85 provides liquidity, the company's cash burn could necessitate dilution if losses persist longer than expected, particularly given the heavy investment in commercialization and R&D.