TG Therapeutics
TGTX
$54.00
+0.20%
TG Therapeutics, Inc. is a fully integrated, commercial-stage biotechnology company focused on acquiring, developing, and commercializing novel treatments for B-cell diseases, with its lead commercial asset BRIUMVI (ublituximab-xiiy) approved by the FDA and multiple ex-U.S. regulators for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. Unlike clinical-stage peers that carry binary pipeline risk, TG Therapeutics has transitioned into a revenue-generating commercial organization with a product already on the market, a research pipeline layered on top, and a lean 399-employee cost structure. The current investor narrative centers on the durability and slope of BRIUMVI's revenue ramp — product revenue reached roughly $201 million in the latest quarter against only about $3.6 million in license revenue — and on whether the company can sustain profitability while funding label expansion and pipeline development. Recent headlines highlight a post-earnings rally of more than 15% alongside mixed quarterly results and cautious sell-side framing, leaving the debate squarely on whether commercial execution can keep pace with the stock's sharp re-rating.…
TGTX
TG Therapeutics
$54.00
Related headlines
Investment Opinion: Should I buy TGTX Today?
The synthesized recommendation is Buy, anchored by the analyst consensus strong buy rating (recommendation mean of 1.5) and an average target price of $69.71, implying approximately +29.4% upside from the current price of $53.89. The core thesis is that TG Therapeutics has successfully transitioned from a clinical-stage biotech to a commercial-stage organization with a revenue-generating product, and the market has not fully re-rated the stock for its new revenue base. The recent pullback from the 52-week high of $59.30 to $53.89 offers a more attractive entry point for a franchise growing revenue at 69.56% year-over-year.
The supporting evidence is compelling: revenue grew 69.56% YoY to $204.92 million in Q1 2026, with product revenue of $201.31 million representing a high-quality mix; gross margin is stable at 83.65% with operating margin at 17.0%; the company is profitable with $19.78 million in Q1 2026 net income; and the PS ratio of 6.98x is near the low end of the company's own multi-year band, down from 218.67x in Q2 2023 and 55.58x in Q4 2023. The forward PE of 18.18x is not statistically cheap, but relative to the growth rate and the company's history, the sales multiple suggests the market is pricing in execution risk rather than euphoria. Analyst estimated revenue of $2.23 billion for the forward period represents a substantial multiple of the current annualized run-rate, indicating the bull case rests on continued rapid commercial penetration.
The biggest risks that could invalidate the thesis are: (1) revenue growth decelerating below 40% YoY, which would pressure the premium multiple; (2) continued negative free cash flow (-$14.19 million TTM) forcing a dilutive capital raise; and (3) competitive pressure in the MS market eroding BRIUMVI's market share. This Buy would upgrade to a high-conviction Buy if free cash flow turns positive and revenue growth sustains above 60%, or downgrade to Hold if revenue growth decelerates below 30% or if operating margins compress below 10%. The valuation verdict is fairly valued to slightly undervalued relative to its own history and growth rate, but not cheap on forward earnings — the stock is a growth-at-a-reasonable-price (GARP) candidate rather than a deep value play.
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TGTX 12-Month Price Forecast
TG Therapeutics presents a compelling growth story with revenue accelerating at 69.56% YoY, stable gross margins above 80%, and a clear path to sustained profitability. The stock's PS ratio of 6.98x is near the low end of its historical range, suggesting the market has not fully re-rated the company for its new revenue base, while the analyst consensus strong buy with a $69.71 average target implies 29.4% upside. However, the negative free cash flow of -$14.19 million TTM and the unusual forward PE inversion (18.18x vs 9.62x trailing) signal that earnings quality and cash generation remain key concerns. The high beta of 1.662 and extreme target dispersion ($21 to $86) mean position sizing should be conservative. I would upgrade to high confidence if free cash flow turns positive and revenue growth sustains above 60%, or downgrade to neutral if revenue growth decelerates below 30% or if a dilutive capital raise is announced.
Wall Street consensus
Most Wall Street analysts maintain a constructive view on TG Therapeutics's 12-month outlook, with a consensus price target around $69.71 and implied upside of +29.1% versus the current price.
Average Target
$69.71
0 analysts
Implied Upside
+29.1%
vs. current price
Analyst Count
—
covering this stock
Price Range
$21 - $86
Analyst target range
Seven analysts cover TG Therapeutics, and the consensus recommendation is a strong buy with a recommendation mean of 1.5 (where 1.0 is a strong buy and 5.0 is a sell), reflecting a decidedly bullish institutional stance. The average target price of $69.71 implies approximately +29.4% upside from the current price of $53.89, a meaningful gap that suggests the sell-side views the recent pullback as a buying opportunity rather than a trend break. The consensus EPS estimate of $5.362 for the forward period — against trailing EPS of just $0.104 — implies analysts expect a dramatic step-up in earnings power, consistent with operating leverage kicking in as BRIUMVI revenue scales. Estimated average revenue of $2.23 billion (range of $2.12 billion to $2.39 billion) represents a substantial multiple of the current annualized run-rate, indicating the bull case rests on continued rapid commercial penetration. The sentiment is unambiguously bullish, though the presence of a B of A Securities Underperform rating (reiterated July 7, 2026) shows the bull case is not unanimous. The target range is extraordinarily wide — from a low of $21.00 to a high of $86.00, a spread of $65.00, or roughly 121% of the current share price — which signals very high uncertainty and low conviction on the precise earnings trajectory. The high target of $86.00 implies roughly +59.6% upside and would require both continued revenue acceleration and multiple expansion, effectively pricing in flawless execution and possibly pipeline catalysts; the low target of $21.00 implies roughly -61.0% downside and likely discounts margin compression, competitive pressure in the MS market, or a scenario where revenue growth stalls well short of consensus. Institutional ratings activity shows a stable-to-constructive pattern: HC Wainwright has reiterated Buy repeatedly (July 13, July 6, May 27, May 6, 2026), JP Morgan has maintained Overweight (February 2, 2026 and November 3, 2025), Goldman Sachs has stayed Neutral (January 15, 2026), and B. Riley reiterated Buy (September 17, 2025). The absence of recent downgrades is a positive signal, but the wide dispersion between the $21 low and $86 high — combined with the stock's 1.662 beta and 26.85% max drawdown — means investors should treat the consensus target as a directional signal rather than a precise price objective, and size positions accordingly.
Bulls vs Bears: TGTX Investment Factors
The bull case currently has stronger evidence: revenue is accelerating at 69.56% YoY, gross margins are stable above 80%, the company has crossed into profitability with a 17.0% operating margin, and analyst consensus is a strong buy with 29.4% upside to the average target. The bear case rests on negative free cash flow (-$14.19 million TTM), an unusual forward PE inversion (18.18x vs 9.62x trailing) that signals earnings quality concerns, and extreme target dispersion ($21 to $86) reflecting low conviction. The single most important tension is whether BRIUMVI's revenue ramp can continue at its current pace while the company achieves self-funding cash generation — if revenue growth decelerates below 40% or working capital drains persist, the stock's premium multiple and momentum-driven re-rating would be vulnerable to a sharp correction.
Bullish
- Revenue growth accelerating at 69.6% YoY: Q1 2026 revenue of $204.92 million grew 69.56% year-over-year versus Q1 2025's $120.86 million, and the sequential cadence has been remarkably consistent — roughly $20–$30 million of incremental revenue per quarter from Q2 2024 through Q1 2026. This is a commercial launch still in expansion phase, not a maturing plateau.
- Product revenue dominates, high-quality mix: Product revenue of $201.31 million dwarfs license revenue of $3.61 million, meaning the growth engine is the BRIUMVI franchise itself rather than one-time milestone payments. This is a higher-quality revenue mix for a commercial-stage biotech and supports the durability of the revenue ramp.
- Gross margins stable in the 80–87% range: Gross margin has been remarkably stable across the last eight quarters — 83.65% in Q1 2026, 80.19% in Q4 2025, 82.59% in Q3 2025, 86.58% in Q2 2025 — consistent with a premium-priced biologic and suggesting limited pricing pressure or manufacturing cost inflation.
- Analyst consensus strong buy, 29.4% upside: Seven analysts cover TGTX with a recommendation mean of 1.5 (strong buy) and an average target price of $69.71, implying approximately +29.4% upside from the current price of $53.89. The absence of recent downgrades — with HC Wainwright reiterating Buy multiple times in 2026 and JP Morgan maintaining Overweight — signals stable-to-constructive institutional sentiment.
Bearish
- Negative free cash flow despite profitability: Trailing free cash flow is -$14.19 million, and Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$17.89 million, driven by a $69.76 million working capital drain including an $86.42 million receivables build. The company is not yet self-funding its growth and remains reliant on cash reserves or capital markets.
- Forward PE of 18.18x vs trailing 9.62x: The unusual inversion where forward PE (18.18x) exceeds trailing PE (9.62x) reflects the distortion from a Q3 2025 one-time tax benefit that inflated trailing earnings. The market expects normalized earnings power to be lower than the optically depressed trailing figure, and the trailing number should be treated with skepticism.
- Extreme analyst target dispersion: The target range spans from $21.00 to $86.00 — a spread of $65.00, or roughly 121% of the current share price — signaling very high uncertainty and low conviction on the precise earnings trajectory. The low target implies -61.0% downside, while the high target implies +59.6% upside.
- High beta and elevated short interest: With a beta of 1.662, the stock is approximately 66% more volatile than the broad market, and the 26.85% maximum drawdown over the period underscores the high-risk profile. Short ratio of 13.73 days suggests meaningful bearish positioning that could amplify downside moves.
TGTX Technical Analysis
TG Therapeutics is in a powerful, sustained uptrend, with the shares up 66.02% over the trailing year and 84.05% year-to-date, dramatically outpacing the S&P 500's 16.22% and 12.08% respective gains. At a current price of $53.89, the stock sits at roughly 84% of its 52-week range (52-week low of $26.76, 52-week high of $59.30), positioning it in the upper quartile of its annual band — a zone that historically signals institutional accumulation and momentum leadership but also leaves limited margin for error if growth expectations wobble. The 52-week low of $26.76 implies the stock has roughly doubled off its trough, confirming this is a momentum-driven re-rating rather than a value recovery. Short-term momentum is positive but decelerating relative to the longer-term trend: the 1-month change of +8.87% and 3-month change of +8.82% are solid but far below the 6-month gain of +92.74%, indicating the explosive phase of the move occurred in the spring and early summer. Relative strength versus SPY remains decisively positive across every window — +9.93% over 1 month, +5.78% over 3 months, and +77.34% over 6 months — though the compression from 6-month to 3-month relative strength suggests the pace of outperformance is cooling. The most recent session showed a -2.71% pullback on volume of roughly 1.37 million shares, a modest consolidation rather than a distribution signal, but one worth monitoring given the stock's extended position. Key technical support rests at the 52-week low of $26.76, with a more immediate psychological floor near the $46–$48 area where the stock gapped lower in early August 2026; resistance is defined by the 52-week high of $59.30, and a decisive breakout above that level would confirm trend continuation and likely invite momentum-driven inflows. A breakdown below the August gap zone would signal a deeper mean-reversion move toward the mid-$40s. With a beta of 1.662, the stock is approximately 66% more volatile than the broad market, meaning position sizing should be materially smaller than a market-weight allocation, and the 26.85% maximum drawdown over the period underscores that this is a high-risk, high-reward instrument where stop discipline is essential.
Beta
1.66
1.66x market volatility
Max Drawdown
-26.9%
Largest decline past year
52-Week Range
$27-$59
Price range past year
Annual Return
+67.9%
Cumulative gain past year
| Period | TGTX Return | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1m | +10.8% | -2.0% |
| 3m | +6.8% | +1.4% |
| 6m | +79.8% | +15.0% |
| 1y | +67.9% | +15.7% |
| ytd | +84.4% | +11.6% |
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TGTX Fundamental Analysis
Revenue growth at TG Therapeutics is exceptional and, critically, still accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue of $204.92 million grew 69.56% year-over-year versus Q1 2025's $120.86 million, extending a streak that saw quarterly revenue climb from $73.47 million in Q2 2024 to $83.88 million in Q3 2024, $108.19 million in Q4 2024, $141.15 million in Q2 2025, $161.71 million in Q3 2025, and $192.57 million in Q4 2025. The sequential cadence — roughly $20–$30 million of incremental revenue per quarter — reflects a commercial launch still in its expansion phase rather than a maturing plateau. Product revenue of $201.31 million dwarfs license revenue of $3.61 million, meaning the growth engine is the BRIUMVI franchise itself rather than one-time milestone payments, which is a higher-quality revenue mix for a commercial-stage biotech. The trajectory implies that if the current run-rate holds, the company is annualizing north of $800 million in product revenue, a scale that fundamentally changes its strategic optionality. Profitability has inflected decisively: Q1 2026 net income was $19.78 million on a 9.65% net margin, with gross margin of 83.65% and operating margin of 17.0%, while the trailing valuation data shows a net margin of 72.56% (distorted by a large one-time tax benefit in Q3 2025 that produced $390.9 million of net income on a -$365.0 million tax expense). Gross margin has been remarkably stable in the 80–87% range across the last eight quarters — 83.65% in Q1 2026, 80.19% in Q4 2025, 82.59% in Q3 2025, 86.58% in Q2 2025 — which is consistent with a premium-priced biologic and suggests limited pricing pressure or manufacturing cost inflation. The key watch item is operating expense discipline: R&D rose to $43.52 million in Q1 2026 from $31.78 million in Q2 2025, and SG&A of $73.14 million in Q1 2026 was up from $62.75 million in Q4 2025, so margin expansion depends on revenue growth continuing to outrun the reinvestment cycle. The balance sheet is solid but not fortress-like: debt-to-equity of 0.40 is manageable, the current ratio of 4.10 signals ample short-term liquidity, and ROE of 69.01% is extraordinarily high (though flattered by a small equity base and the Q3 2025 tax benefit). The concern is cash generation: trailing free cash flow is -$14.19 million, and Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$17.89 million, driven by a $69.76 million working capital drain (including an $86.42 million receivables build) and $19.95 million of stock-based compensation. The company ended Q1 2026 with $442.21 million in cash after a $390.83 million financing inflow and $99.99 million of stock repurchases, so near-term liquidity is not a risk — but the negative FCF profile means the company is not yet self-funding its growth, and continued reliance on capital markets or cash reserves bears watching.
Quarterly Revenue
$204918000.0B
2026-03
Revenue YoY Growth
+69.6%
YoY Comparison
Gross Margin
83.7%
Latest Quarter
Free Cash Flow
$-14191000.0B
Last 12 Months
Revenue & Net Income Trends (2 Years)
Revenue Breakdown
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Valuation Analysis: Is TGTX Overvalued?
Because TG Therapeutics generated positive net income ($19.78 million in Q1 2026) and positive trailing EPS of $0.104, the appropriate primary metric is the price-to-earnings ratio. The trailing PE of 9.62x is strikingly low for a company growing revenue at 69.56% year-over-year, while the forward PE of 18.18x is meaningfully higher — an unusual inversion that reflects the distortion from the Q3 2025 one-time tax benefit inflating trailing earnings, and implies the market expects normalized earnings power to be lower than the optically depressed trailing figure. The gap between trailing and forward PE tells investors that the trailing number is not a clean earnings run-rate and should be treated with skepticism. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock trades at 6.98x trailing sales and 10.08x EV/Sales, while the PEG ratio of 0.005 is essentially meaningless given the earnings distortion and should not be relied upon. Peer comparison is constrained by the absence of a stated industry-average multiple in the provided valuation data, but contextually, large-cap commercial biotechs with 60%+ growth typically command PS multiples in the high single digits to low teens; at 6.98x PS and 10.08x EV/Sales, TGTX screens toward the lower end of that implied range, suggesting the market is not yet pricing it as a fully de-risked commercial franchise. The premium embedded in the 33.37x EV/EBITDA multiple, however, indicates that on a cash-earnings basis the stock is not cheap and requires continued EBITDA scaling to justify. Historically, TGTX's valuation has compressed dramatically as the business matured: the PS ratio fell from 218.67x in Q2 2023 and 55.58x in Q4 2023 to 23.42x in Q1 2026, while the PE ratio moved from negative territory throughout 2023 to 59.32x in Q1 2026 and 46.58x in Q4 2025 on the historical ratios series. The current PS of 6.98x is near the low end of the company's own multi-year band, which is a direct consequence of revenue scaling faster than the share price — a classic sign that the market has not fully re-rated the stock for its new revenue base. The PB ratio of 6.64x is also well below the 24.37x seen in Q1 2025, further evidence of multiple compression against a rising fundamental base. The interpretation is nuanced: the stock is not statistically cheap on forward earnings, but relative to its own history and its growth rate, the sales multiple suggests the market is pricing in execution risk rather than euphoria.
PE
9.6x
Latest Quarter
vs. Historical
Low-End
5-Year PE Range 3x~96x
vs. Industry Avg
N/A
Industry PE ~N/A*
EV/EBITDA
33.4x
Enterprise Value Multiple
Investment Risk Disclosure
Financial and operational risks center on the company's cash generation profile despite headline profitability. Trailing free cash flow is -$14.19 million, and Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$17.89 million, driven by a $69.76 million working capital drain including an $86.42 million receivables build. While the company ended Q1 2026 with $442.21 million in cash after a $390.83 million financing inflow and $99.99 million of stock repurchases, the negative FCF profile means TG Therapeutics is not yet self-funding its growth. Additionally, operating expenses are rising — R&D increased to $43.52 million in Q1 2026 from $31.78 million in Q2 2025, and SG&A rose to $73.14 million from $62.75 million in Q4 2025 — so margin expansion depends on revenue growth continuing to outrun reinvestment. The debt-to-equity of 0.40 is manageable and the current ratio of 4.10 signals ample short-term liquidity, but continued reliance on capital markets or cash reserves bears watching.
Market and competitive risks are amplified by the stock's high beta of 1.662, meaning it is approximately 66% more volatile than the broad market, and its 26.85% maximum drawdown over the period. The stock trades at a forward PE of 18.18x and an EV/EBITDA of 33.37x, which embeds a premium that requires continued EBITDA scaling to justify. The extreme analyst target dispersion — from $21.00 to $86.00, a spread of roughly 121% of the current share price — signals very high uncertainty and low conviction on the earnings trajectory. Competitive pressure in the multiple sclerosis market is a persistent threat, and the B of A Securities Underperform rating (reiterated July 7, 2026) shows the bull case is not unanimous. Recent news highlights a post-earnings rally of more than 15% alongside mixed quarterly results and cautious sell-side framing, suggesting the market is sensitive to any execution wobble.
The worst-case scenario would involve a combination of revenue growth deceleration below 30%, continued negative free cash flow forcing a dilutive capital raise, and competitive share loss in the MS market. In this scenario, the stock could retest its 52-week low of $26.76, representing approximately -50.3% downside from the current price of $53.89. The analyst low target of $21.00 implies even steeper downside of roughly -61.0%, likely discounting margin compression or a scenario where revenue growth stalls well short of consensus. Given the 1.662 beta and 26.85% max drawdown, investors should size positions materially smaller than a market-weight allocation and maintain strict stop discipline.
FAQ
The most severe risk is financial: trailing free cash flow is -$14.19 million and Q1 2026 operating cash flow was -$17.89 million, meaning the company is not yet self-funding and could require a dilutive capital raise. Second is competitive risk in the multiple sclerosis market, where BRIUMVI faces entrenched therapies and any new entrant could pressure pricing and market share. Third is valuation compression risk: the forward PE of 18.18x and EV/EBITDA of 33.37x embed a premium that requires continued EBITDA scaling, and any revenue deceleration below 30% could trigger a sharp multiple contraction. Fourth is market risk: the stock's beta of 1.662 means it is 66% more volatile than the broad market, and the 26.85% max drawdown illustrates the potential for sharp losses. The extreme analyst target dispersion ($21 to $86) further underscores the high uncertainty.
The 12-month forecast is based on three scenarios: a bull case (30% probability) targeting $80–$86, a base case (50% probability) targeting $65–$75, and a bear case (20% probability) targeting $21–$30. The base case is most likely, assuming revenue growth sustains at 40–50% YoY, operating margins expand modestly to 18–20%, and free cash flow approaches breakeven by year-end. This scenario aligns with the analyst average target of $69.71, implying approximately 29.4% upside from the current price of $53.89. The bull case requires revenue growth above 50% and positive free cash flow, while the bear case assumes revenue deceleration below 30% and a dilutive capital raise. The key assumption behind the base case is that BRIUMVI's commercial momentum continues without competitive disruption.
TGTX trades at a trailing PE of 9.62x and a forward PE of 18.18x, with a PS ratio of 6.98x and EV/Sales of 10.08x. The forward PE is meaningfully higher than the trailing PE due to a one-time tax benefit in Q3 2025 that inflated trailing earnings, so the trailing figure should be treated with skepticism. On a price-to-sales basis, the stock screens toward the lower end of the implied range for large-cap commercial biotechs with 60%+ growth, which typically command PS multiples in the high single digits to low teens. The PS ratio has compressed dramatically from 218.67x in Q2 2023 to 6.98x currently, reflecting revenue scaling faster than the share price. The market appears to be pricing in execution risk rather than euphoria, suggesting the stock is fairly valued to slightly undervalued relative to its growth rate and history, though not cheap on forward earnings.
From a risk/reward perspective, TGTX offers approximately 29.4% upside to the analyst average target of $69.71, with a strong buy consensus rating (1.5 mean) from seven analysts. The bull case is supported by 69.56% YoY revenue growth, stable 83.65% gross margins, and a PS ratio of 6.98x that is near the low end of its historical range. However, the downside risk is significant: the analyst low target of $21.00 implies -61.0% downside, and the stock's 1.662 beta means it is 66% more volatile than the market. The biggest risk is negative free cash flow (-$14.19 million TTM), which could force a dilutive capital raise. For risk-tolerant investors with a 12–24 month horizon, the risk/reward is favorable, but position sizing should be conservative given the high volatility and wide target dispersion.
TGTX is best suited for a medium-to-long-term investment horizon of at least 12–24 months, given its commercial-stage growth profile and the time needed for free cash flow to inflect positively. The stock does not pay a dividend (payout ratio of 0), so returns depend entirely on capital appreciation. Its beta of 1.662 and 26.85% max drawdown make it unsuitable for short-term trading unless the investor has high risk tolerance and strict stop-loss discipline. Earnings visibility is improving but still limited — the wide analyst target range ($21 to $86) reflects uncertainty about the revenue trajectory. A minimum holding period of 12 months is recommended to allow the commercial ramp and margin expansion to materialize, with position sizing materially smaller than a market-weight allocation due to the elevated volatility.